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Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock THB 0.36, price THB 0.54, that is 33.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive TH

UB Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL

UBE · BK
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 33% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
2.8% dividend yield · Cash covered
Quality 56/100
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Revenue last quarter 16% below a year ago.
Fair value 0.3600 THB · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −10.3 %/yr in THB)
Loss-making · -2.1% net margin (TTM)
Narrow moat 18/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

2.13 THB 0.4071 THB Fair Value 0.3600 THB Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.4071 THB – 2.13 THB · the 0.5400 THB price screens above the 0.3600 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Ubon Bio Ethanol Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes processed cassava products in Thailand, China, the United States, and internationally.

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The company operates in four segments: Tapioca Starch, Biogas, and Electricity; Ethanol; Restaurant Management and Investment Activities; and Others.

It offers cassava-based ethanol, cassava starch, cassava flour, and other organic products, as well as by-products, including wastewater and cassava pulp; and ethanol products, such as fuel ethanol, industrial use ethanol, and alcohol, as well as hand sanitizer.

It also engages in the provision of biogas; generation and sale of biogas and electricity from biogas and solar power system; franchise operation of food and beverage outlet; distribution of food ingredient, food, and beverage; and research and development of various agricultural products.

The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand.

Stock analysis

Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) currently trades at 0.5400 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3600 THB, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1.80 THB per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the 0.5400 THB price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.1400 THB, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL reported revenue of 5.2B THB in FY2025 versus 7.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M THB in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.1B THB (≈ $63.9M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) −0.0300 THB · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −33%, UBE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 0.3600 THB Fair Value 0.3600 THB Bull 0.3600 THB
Price 0.5400 THB · Downside -33.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 1.99 THB 2.36 THB 2.96 THB 80
Growth DCF 2.02 THB 2.36 THB 2.89 THB 78
Owner Earnings 0.8900 THB 1.03 THB 1.27 THB 76
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 1.99 THB 2.36 THB 2.96 THB 80
Owner Earnings 0.8900 THB 1.03 THB 1.27 THB 76
5Y Revenue Exit 1.12 THB 1.18 THB 1.26 THB 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 1.56 THB 1.93 THB 2.44 THB 74
10Y Revenue Exit 1.56 THB 1.66 THB 1.73 THB 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 1.78 THB 2.03 THB 2.29 THB 68
Earnings-Based
EPV 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 0.1400 THB 0.1400 THB 0.1400 THB 66
EV/EBITDA 1.20 THB 1.56 THB 1.92 THB 67
EV/Revenue 0.1300 THB 0.1400 THB 0.1400 THB 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.1400 THB 0.2200 THB 0.2700 THB 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2.02 THB 2.36 THB 2.89 THB 78
Rev-Margin DCF 1.12 THB 1.23 THB 1.41 THB 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 0.1800 THB 70

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 19
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 88
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 65
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 54
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 34
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 40
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 74
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.4% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

UBE screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −33.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −2.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −15.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.45× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 1.9× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)56 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 20.10 THB 40.78 THB +103% vs UBE
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 218.00 kr 273.41 +25% vs UBE
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $59.68 $73.24 +23% vs UBE
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥44.40 ¥53.02 +19% vs UBE
United Plantations Berhad 2089 30.38 MYR 33.42 MYR +10% vs UBE
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $69.97 $61.55 −12% vs UBE
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥16.82 ¥12.08 −28% vs UBE
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥129.60 ¥88.62 −32% vs UBE
Bunge Global SA BG $99.10 $56.81 −43% vs UBE
SalMar ASA SALM kr 572.50 kr 260.28 −55% vs UBE

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Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UBE

Frequently asked questions

Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.3600 THB versus a price of 0.5400 THB, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UBE?
Our model-based fair value for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 0.3600 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.5400 THB.
What is the quality score of UBE?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.3600 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 14 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.3600 THB, about 33% lower versus a price of 0.5400 THB (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.7B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL pay a dividend?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL currently shows a dividend yield of 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL pays a dividend of 0.015 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. Free cash flow covers the dividend 18.82 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL it is 0.3600 THB per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 0.5400 THB. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, UBE trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.5400 THB, fair value 0.3600 THB, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UBE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.5400 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.3600 THB). For Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL the two are 0.1800 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL worth?
The market values Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL at about 2.1B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 0.5400 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 0.3600 THB per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −1.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UBE from its 52-week high?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL trades at 0.5400 THB, about 39% below its 52-week high of 0.8800 THB and 33% above the low of 0.4071 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.3600 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 0.5400 THB, calculated fair value 0.3600 THB (−33%), Quality Score 56/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UBE calculated?
We run Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 0.3600 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 0.5400 THB. Our model-based fair value is 0.3600 THB, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.3600 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL

How large is the market capitalisation of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The market capitalisation of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.1B THB (≈ $63.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Earnings per share at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL are −0.0300 THB. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The dividend yield of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The net margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is −2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
The operating margin of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Revenue at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is growing −15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE)?
Earnings per share at Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL are growing −59.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) generate?
The free cash flow of Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL is 1.1B THB (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL (UBE) hold?
Ubon Bio Ethanol PCL holds more cash than debt, 488M THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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