The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹4.5B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +30.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹31.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (₹15.34 to ₹31.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹17.42 – ₹134.04 · fair‑value band ₹15.34 – ₹31.76 · the ₹52.18 price screens above the ₹25.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) currently trades at ₹52.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹25.41, implying the stock looks roughly 51.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Ugar Sugar Works Limited generated revenue of ₹14.8B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue declined 23.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.1%. Net debt stands at ₹6.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹15.34 (bear case) to ₹31.76 (bull case); at ₹52.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -51%, UGARSUGAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (₹35.17) versus Dividend Discount (₹3.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited manufactures and sells sugar, and industrial and potable alcohol in India. The company operates through Sugar, Industrial Alcohol, Potable Alcohol, Co-Generation, and Petroleum Products Sales segments. It offers white crystal sugar and its byproducts, including bagasse, filter cake, and final molasses.
Full company description
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited manufactures and sells sugar, and industrial and potable alcohol in India. The company operates through Sugar, Industrial Alcohol, Potable Alcohol, Co-Generation, and Petroleum Products Sales segments. It offers white crystal sugar and its byproducts, including bagasse, filter cake, and final molasses. The company also provides various distillery products, such as IML products under the Old Castle Premium Whisky, U.S. Whisky, U.S. Brandy, U.S. Gin, Ugar XXX Rum, Gokak Falls Whisky, Milan Whisky, Hawk Gin, and Gagarin Vodka brands; ethanol; rectified spirit; malt spirit; and extra neutral alcohol. In addition, it offers distillery byproducts comprising fermentation sludge, which is used in poultry feeds; fusel oil that is used in amyl alcohols/perfumes; and carbon dioxide for industrial purpose, as well as low grade potash. Further, it generates and distributes electricity. The company also exports its products through merchant exporters. The Ugar Sugar Works Limited was incorporated in 1939 and is based in Belgaum, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited reported revenue of ₹14.8B in FY2026 versus ₹11.1B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹136M in FY2026, compounding −25.1%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +7.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
UGARSUGAR screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 94,500 | CHF 9,669 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.78 | $27.36 | -56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,136 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 132,800 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +53% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | -56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹604.70 | ₹304.54 | -50% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 26,850 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +57% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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