The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited ₹20.57, price ₹56.04, upside -63.3%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹25.36 – ₹134.04 · fair‑value band ₹15.36 – ₹26.75 · the ₹56.04 price screens above the ₹20.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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The Ugar Sugar Works Limited manufactures and sells sugar, and industrial and potable alcohol in India. The company operates through Sugar, Industrial Alcohol, Potable Alcohol, Co-Generation, and Petroleum Products Sales segments. It offers white crystal sugar and its byproducts, including bagasse, filter cake, and final molasses.
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The Ugar Sugar Works Limited manufactures and sells sugar, and industrial and potable alcohol in India. The company operates through Sugar, Industrial Alcohol, Potable Alcohol, Co-Generation, and Petroleum Products Sales segments. It offers white crystal sugar and its byproducts, including bagasse, filter cake, and final molasses. The company also provides various distillery products, such as IML products under the Old Castle Premium Whisky, U.S. Whisky, U.S. Brandy, U.S. Gin, Ugar XXX Rum, Gokak Falls Whisky, Milan Whisky, Hawk Gin, and Gagarin Vodka brands; ethanol; rectified spirit; malt spirit; and extra neutral alcohol. In addition, it offers distillery byproducts comprising fermentation sludge, which is used in poultry feeds; fusel oil that is used in amyl alcohols/perfumes; and carbon dioxide for industrial purpose, as well as low grade potash. Further, it generates and distributes electricity. The company also exports its products through merchant exporters. The Ugar Sugar Works Limited was incorporated in 1939 and is based in Belgaum, India.
Stock analysis
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) currently trades at ₹56.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹20.57, 63.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹129.52 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹56.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹3.78, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹15.36 (bear) to ₹26.75 (bull), the price of ₹56.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited reported revenue of ₹14.8B in FY2026 versus ₹11.1B in FY2022, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹136M in FY2026, compounding −25.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹6.3B (≈ $65.5M) · P/E ratio 46.3 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) ₹1.21 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −63%, UGARSUGAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹15.36Fair Value ₹20.57Bull ₹26.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.6133 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.4% vs −3.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%
Compare The Ugar Sugar Works Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−23.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)46.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.43× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Ugar Sugar Works Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UGARSUGAR
Frequently asked questions
Is The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹20.57 versus a price of ₹56.04, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UGARSUGAR?
Our model-based fair value for The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is ₹20.57 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹56.04.
What is the quality score of UGARSUGAR?
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹20.57 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹15.36, optimistic scenario ₹26.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Ugar Sugar Works Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹20.57, about −63% upside versus a price of ₹56.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹15.36, optimistic scenario ₹26.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹14.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does The Ugar Sugar Works Limited pay a dividend?
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Ugar Sugar Works Limited it is ₹20.57 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹56.04. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Ugar Sugar Works Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, UGARSUGAR trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹56.04, fair value ₹20.57, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UGARSUGAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹56.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹20.57). For The Ugar Sugar Works Limited the two are ₹35.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Ugar Sugar Works Limited worth?
The market values The Ugar Sugar Works Limited at about ₹6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹56.04; our models calculate a fair value of ₹20.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UGARSUGAR?
Our models span a range for The Ugar Sugar Works Limited: cautious scenario ₹15.36, base ₹20.57, optimistic ₹26.75 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹56.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UGARSUGAR?
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹20.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UGARSUGAR from its 52-week high?
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited trades at ₹56.04, about 12% below its 52-week high of ₹64.03 and 58% above the low of ₹35.36 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹20.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Ugar Sugar Works Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Ugar Sugar Works Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹56.04, calculated fair value ₹20.57 (−63%), Quality Score 41/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UGARSUGAR calculated?
We run The Ugar Sugar Works Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹20.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Ugar Sugar Works Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹56.04. Our model-based fair value is ₹20.57, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Ugar Sugar Works Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹26.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) come from?
Earnings per share at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited grew −0.8 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The market capitalisation of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is ₹6.3B (≈ $65.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Earnings per share at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited are ₹1.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The dividend yield of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 0.6% (payout 28.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The net margin of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 0.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
The operating margin of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Revenue at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is growing −23.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR)?
Earnings per share at The Ugar Sugar Works Limited are growing −10.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) generate?
The free cash flow of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is −₹548M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) carry?
The net debt of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited is ₹6.5B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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