Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $5.2B
Ultrapar Participações S.A
UGP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $6.18 to $6.31 (+2.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +31.8% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $2.68 – $6.56 · fair‑value band $4.55 – $10.31 · the $6.43 price screens above the $6.31 fair value. As of Jul 21, 2026.
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Ultrapar Participações S.A (UGP) currently trades at $6.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.31, implying the stock looks roughly 1.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ultrapar Participações S.A generated revenue of $146B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at $18.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.55 (bear case) to $10.31 (bull case); at $6.43, the current price sits within that range. The share trades near its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -2%, UGP screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ultrapar Participações S.A reported revenue of $142B in FY2025 versus $110B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +30.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- Ultrapar upgraded to Buy at BofA as two key overhangs diminish
- Ultrapar Participações (UGP) Among the Best Undervalued Stocks Under $5
- Top dividend growth stocks under $10 include Ambev, Alvopetro
- Zacks.com featured highlights include First American Financial, Caleres, Cenovus, Ultrapar and Open Text
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 55.30 TWD | 25.02 TWD | -55% |
| ENEOS Holdings JXHLY | $16.46 | $17.72 | +8% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.26 | ₹394.34 | +185% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $70.76 | $43.77 | -38% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 100,200 KRW | 232,034 KRW | +132% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.