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Data-driven stock valuation

Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $5.2B · ISIN US90400P1012

At a glance

UP Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR logo Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR UGP · US
Price$7.28
Fair Value$6.45
Upside−11.4%
Quality52/100

A solid business, but trading 13% above our fair value of $6.45.

As of Aug 23, 2026, the fair value of Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR is $6.45 per share against a price of $7.28, so the fair value sits 11% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·17.86% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $4.51 to $10.23

Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 23, 2026, revised from $6.38 to $6.45 (+1.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +16.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range ($4.51 to $10.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$7.28 $1.88 Fair Value $6.45 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.88 – $7.28 · fair‑value band $4.51 – $10.23 · the $7.28 price screens above the $6.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) currently trades at $7.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.45, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $40.40 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the $7.28 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.81, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR generated revenue of $146B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.2%. Net debt stands at $18.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026

Scenario range: $4.51 (bear) to $10.23 (bull), the price of $7.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 176% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −11%, UGP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence $20.36 $25.45 $29.84 74
FCF DCF $6.59 $22.90 $52.64 72
Growth DCF $6.19 $20.60 $44.84 71
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.59 $22.90 $52.64 72
Owner Earnings $12.98 $35.29 $74.96 70
5Y Revenue Exit $22.19 $56.00 $104.27 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $11.21 $32.31 $59.83 70
5Y P/E Exit $9.38 $28.38 $50.99 66
10Y Revenue Exit $15.30 $45.57 $96.53 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $9.47 $28.16 $58.54 63
10Y P/E Exit $8.27 $25.27 $50.98 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $15.60 $83.82 $116.15 63
Lynch FV $23.18 $33.11 $43.05 61
PEG = 1.0 $23.18 $33.11 $43.05 57
EPV best evidence $20.36 $25.45 $29.84 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $24.09 $32.12 $40.16 63
P/S Multiple $29.26 $39.01 $48.76 58
P/B Multiple $19.77 $26.36 $32.95 55
EV/EBIT $22.19 $33.53 $44.88 65
EV/EBITDA $15.12 $24.10 $33.09 66
EV/Revenue $29.45 $47.15 $64.84 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.32 $9.81 $14.64 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.19 $20.60 $44.84 71
Rev-Margin DCF $22.19 $54.32 $97.87 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.68 $19.32 $52.46 67
ROIC Compounder $23.33 $36.53 $50.97 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $28.28 $40.40 $52.52 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($40.40) versus Asset-Based ($9.81). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.2
P/S ratio 0.23 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.5500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2
Net margin 1.7% FY2025
Return on equity 19.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 5.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $146B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3% 3y avg −0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +167%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.5B FY2025
Net debt $18.6B FY2025 · ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments.

Full company description

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR reported revenue of R$142B in FY2025 versus R$110B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.5B in FY2025, compounding +30.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$142B
Latest YoY
+6.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+20.7%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 23.6% vs 10Y 5.0%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2.1% (2020) → 3.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop72% (2019) · in USD
Revenue +6.7%/yr
FY21 R$110B
FY22 R$144B
FY23 R$126B
FY24 R$133B
FY25 R$142B
Net income +30.3%/yr
FY21 R$850M
FY22 R$1.8B
FY23 R$2.4B
FY24 R$2.4B
FY25 R$2.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.8 %

of which total revenue +6.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin −0.5 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

UGP screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

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Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR · Fair Value
$6.45 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UGP

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 112 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 17.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.01× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.2× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.78× · Cheaper than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+14.0 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.4 %
FCF yield on price19.04 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE18 · sector 16
FUTURE52 · sector 15
PAST77 · sector 34
HEALTH49 · sector 85
DIVIDEND100 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,314 ₹835.66 −36%
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $352.36 $127.32 −64%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $368.83 $133.18 −64%
Phillips 66 PSX $246.58 $99.41 −60%
Neste Oyj NESTE €32.68 €3.83 −88%
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 75.80 TWD 15.32 TWD −80%
HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $105.41 $44.96 −57%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹315.70 ₹846.81 +168%
SK Innovation Co 096770 131,500 KRW 53,541 KRW −59%
Sunoco LP, SUN $75.55 $53.36 −29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.45 versus a price of $7.28, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UGP?
Our model-based fair value for Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR is $6.45 (as of Aug 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.28.
What is the quality score of UGP?
Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.45 (as of Aug 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.51, optimistic scenario $10.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.45, about −11% upside versus a price of $7.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.51, optimistic scenario $10.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP)?
Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $146B (latest available figure, as of Aug 23, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UGP?
The net profit margin of Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +0.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Aug 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UGP use?
Our models discount Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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