Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.4B
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
VAC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +31.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($73.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($38.06 to $73.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.90 – $152.58 · fair‑value band $38.06 – $73.38 · the $123.47 price screens above the $50.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) currently trades at $123.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.75, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of -10.3%. It earns a return on equity of -15.5%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.06 (bear case) to $73.38 (bull case); at $123.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 187% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -59%, VAC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($107.36) versus Earnings-Based ($14.54). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, engages in vacation ownership, exchange, rental, and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management.
Full company description
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, engages in vacation ownership, exchange, rental, and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. It develops, markets, sells, finances, rents, and manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club brands; and holds non-exclusive right to develop, market, and sell whole ownership residential products under the Ritz-Carlton Residences brand name, as well as has a license to use the St. Regis brand for specified fractional ownership products. The company also offers exchange network and membership programs, as well as management services to other resorts and lodging properties through its Interval International and Aqua-Aston businesses. In addition, it provides financing for consumer purchases of vacation ownership products; and renting vacation ownership inventory. The company sells its upper upscale tier vacation ownership products under its brands primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and certain off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$308M in FY2025.
VAC screens 59% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Stock Looks Above Fair Value Despite Its 112% Run
- Despite Fast-paced Momentum, Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Is Still a Bargain Stock
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Is Up 27.8% After Raising 2026 Contract Sales Guidance And Beating Q2 Estimates – Has The Bull Case Chang
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp (VAC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Contract Sales ...
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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