Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Marriot Vacations Worldwide $48.94, price $101, upside -51.5%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.90 – $148.68 · fair‑value band $38.06 – $69.68 · the $100.85 price screens above the $48.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, engages in vacation ownership, exchange, rental, and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, engages in vacation ownership, exchange, rental, and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. It develops, markets, sells, finances, rents, and manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Vacation Club, and Ritz-Carlton Club brands; and holds non-exclusive right to develop, market, and sell whole ownership residential products under the Ritz-Carlton Residences brand name, as well as has a license to use the St. Regis brand for specified fractional ownership products. The company also offers exchange network and membership programs, as well as management services to other resorts and lodging properties through its Interval International and Aqua-Aston businesses. In addition, it provides financing for consumer purchases of vacation ownership products; and renting vacation ownership inventory. The company sells its upper upscale tier vacation ownership products under its brands primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and certain off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock analysis
Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) currently trades at $100.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.94, implying the stock looks roughly 106.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $107.36 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $100.85 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.54, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $38.06 (bear) to $69.68 (bull), the price of $100.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Marriot Vacations Worldwide reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$308M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $−9.96 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin −6.1% · Return on equity −15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at −51%, VAC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $38.06Fair Value $48.94Bull $69.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.5% (2018) → 11.0% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Marriot Vacations Worldwide with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 70 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−52% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.75× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.77× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.48× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)63· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.94 versus a price of $100.85, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VAC?
Our model-based fair value for Marriot Vacations Worldwide is $48.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $100.85.
What is the quality score of VAC?
Marriot Vacations Worldwide has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.06, optimistic scenario $69.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marriot Vacations Worldwide stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.94, about −51% upside versus a price of $100.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.06, optimistic scenario $69.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Marriot Vacations Worldwide reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Marriot Vacations Worldwide pay a dividend?
Marriot Vacations Worldwide currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marriot Vacations Worldwide it is $48.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $100.85. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marriot Vacations Worldwide stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VAC trades above its calculated fair value: price $100.85, fair value $48.94, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VAC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($100.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.94). For Marriot Vacations Worldwide the two are $51.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marriot Vacations Worldwide worth?
The market values Marriot Vacations Worldwide at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $100.85; our models calculate a fair value of $48.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VAC?
Our models span a range for Marriot Vacations Worldwide: cautious scenario $38.06, base $48.94, optimistic $69.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $100.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VAC?
The PEG ratio of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is 1.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marriot Vacations Worldwide (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −15.5%, debt of 2.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VAC from its 52-week high?
Marriot Vacations Worldwide trades at $100.85, about 19% below its 52-week high of $124.75 and 130% above the low of $43.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marriot Vacations Worldwide?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marriot Vacations Worldwide stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $100.85, calculated fair value $48.94 (−51%), Quality Score 39/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VAC calculated?
We run Marriot Vacations Worldwide through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Marriot Vacations Worldwide itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $100.85. Our model-based fair value is $48.94, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marriot Vacations Worldwide right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($69.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($38.06 to $69.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) come from?
Earnings per share at Marriot Vacations Worldwide grew +5.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marriot Vacations Worldwide
How large is the market capitalisation of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The market capitalisation of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is 1.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Earnings per share at Marriot Vacations Worldwide are $−9.96. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The dividend yield of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The net margin of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is −6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is −15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
The operating margin of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC)?
Earnings per share at Marriot Vacations Worldwide are growing −56.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) generate?
The free cash flow of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is −$29.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Marriot Vacations Worldwide (VAC) carry?
The net debt of Marriot Vacations Worldwide is $5.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026