Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Varia US Properties Ltd CHF 5.22, price CHF 12.30, upside -57.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 12.10 – CHF 49.74 · fair‑value band CHF 3.79 – CHF 20.68 · the CHF 12.30 price screens above the CHF 5.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Varia US Properties AG, a real estate investment company, acquires, holds, and sells properties in the United States. The company's portfolio comprises low-moderate income and workforce multifamily housing properties. Varia US Properties AG was founded in 2015 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) currently trades at CHF 12.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 5.22, implying the stock looks roughly 135.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 27.85 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the CHF 12.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 9.61, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 3.79 (bear) to CHF 20.68 (bull), the price of CHF 12.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Varia US Properties Ltd reported revenue of $98.3M in FY2025 versus $108M in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 125M · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) CHF −2.29 · Dividend yield 8.8% · Net margin −32.3% · Return on equity −8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% · Operating margin 36.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −58%, VARN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 3.79Fair Value CHF 5.22Bull CHF 20.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
90.0% (2019) → 12.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.5% a year for the price.
Compare Varia US Properties Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 546 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−26% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.50× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF8.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)15· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Varia US Properties Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VARN
Frequently asked questions
Is Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 5.22 versus a price of CHF 12.30, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VARN?
Our model-based fair value for Varia US Properties Ltd is CHF 5.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 12.30.
What is the quality score of VARN?
Varia US Properties Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 5.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 3.79, optimistic scenario CHF 20.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Varia US Properties Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 5.22, about −58% upside versus a price of CHF 12.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 3.79, optimistic scenario CHF 20.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Varia US Properties Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $110M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Varia US Properties Ltd pay a dividend?
Varia US Properties Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Varia US Properties Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 0.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VARN use?
Our models discount Varia US Properties Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Varia US Properties Ltd that is +24.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Varia US Properties Ltd grew 0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +24.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Varia US Properties Ltd (+24.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.95 %: that much free cash flow Varia US Properties Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Varia US Properties Ltd it is CHF 5.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 12.30. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Varia US Properties Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VARN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 12.30, fair value CHF 5.22, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VARN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 12.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 5.22). For Varia US Properties Ltd the two are CHF 7.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Varia US Properties Ltd worth?
The market values Varia US Properties Ltd at about CHF 125M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 12.30; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 5.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VARN?
Our models span a range for Varia US Properties Ltd: cautious scenario CHF 3.79, base CHF 5.22, optimistic CHF 20.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 12.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Varia US Properties Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.6%, debt of 1.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VARN from its 52-week high?
Varia US Properties Ltd trades at CHF 12.30, about 44% below its 52-week high of CHF 21.90 and 2% above the low of CHF 12.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 5.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Varia US Properties Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Varia US Properties Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 12.30, calculated fair value CHF 5.22 (−58%), Quality Score 48/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VARN calculated?
We run Varia US Properties Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 5.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Varia US Properties Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was CHF 12.30. Our model-based fair value is CHF 5.22, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Varia US Properties Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (CHF 3.79 to CHF 20.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Varia US Properties Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The market capitalisation of Varia US Properties Ltd is CHF 125M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Varia US Properties Ltd is 1.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Earnings per share at Varia US Properties Ltd are CHF −2.29. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The dividend yield of Varia US Properties Ltd is 8.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The net margin of Varia US Properties Ltd is −32.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Varia US Properties Ltd is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Varia US Properties Ltd is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
The operating margin of Varia US Properties Ltd is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Revenue at Varia US Properties Ltd is growing −12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN)?
Earnings per share at Varia US Properties Ltd are growing −64.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Varia US Properties Ltd (VARN) carry?
The net debt of Varia US Properties Ltd is $561M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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