Vista Group (VGLIF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $299M
Vista Group
VGLIF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from $0.1900 to $0.1300 (−31.6%) since Jun 25, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
32‑month range $0.9700 – $1.35 · fair‑value band $0.1000 – $0.1600 · the $1.25 price screens above the $0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Vista Group (VGLIF) currently trades at $1.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 89.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vista Group generated revenue of $164M at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.8%. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1000 (bear case) to $0.1600 (bull case); at $1.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -90%, VGLIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.4200) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vista Group International Limited provides software and technology solutions to the film industry sectors in New Zealand and internationally. It operates through the Cinema and Film segments.
Full company description
Vista Group International Limited provides software and technology solutions to the film industry sectors in New Zealand and internationally. It operates through the Cinema and Film segments. The Cinema segment offers software products to the cinema industry, such as Vista Cinema, a cinema management software and digital solutions for large cinema circuits; Veezi, a cinema management solution for independent exhibitors; Share Dimension software; movieXchange software; Movio Classic software; and Movio Cinema EQ, a data analytics and campaign management solutions. The Film segment provides software products for film studios and distributors, including Maccs, a software solution that manages the distribution of movies to cinemas; Numero, an aggregated box office reporting platform; Movio Research and Movio Media software; Powster for interactive creative studio and production; and Flicks, a movie, cinema, and streaming website and app. The company also offers software development and licensing; marketing and creative solutions; distributes intellectual property; and advertising sales. Vista Group International Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vista Group reported revenue of $164M in FY2025 versus $98.1M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025.
VGLIF screens 90% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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