VGP NV (VGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of VGP NV €22.30, price €67.90, upside -67.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €51.62 – €196.88 · fair‑value band €22.30 – €64.04 · the €67.90 price screens above the €22.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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VGP NV, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and manages logistics and semi-industrial real estate, and ancillary offices. The company operates through three segments: Investment, Property Development, and Renewable Energy.
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VGP NV, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and manages logistics and semi-industrial real estate, and ancillary offices. The company operates through three segments: Investment, Property Development, and Renewable Energy. It leases its properties to tenants in the logistic sector, including storing, assembling, reconditioning, and final treatment of goods. The company also provides property management services; asset management services related to corporate administration, financing, business planning, reporting, budgeting, management of tax and legal affairs, controlling, etc.; and project management and leasing services. In addition, the company offers facility management and leasing services; facility management services, such as maintenance, waste management, and greenery maintenance services; and other services comprising green energy generated through roof-fixed solar panels, smart energy management, and green electric charging facilities and infrastructure. It operates in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Croatia, France, Denmark, Serbia, and The United Kingdom. VGP NV was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium.
Stock analysis
VGP NV (VGP) currently trades at €67.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.30, implying the stock looks roughly 204.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €157.10 per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the €67.90 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €19.14, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €22.30 (bear) to €64.04 (bull), the price of €67.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
VGP NV reported revenue of €175M in FY2025 versus €46.4M in FY2021, a compound +39.3%/yr. Reported net income was €290M in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.6B · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 10.6 · EPS (TTM) €10.64 · Dividend yield 10.0% · Net margin 151% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −67%, VGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €22.30Fair Value €22.30Bull €64.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.4% vs 8.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 207%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (67 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 542 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−67.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)151.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)56.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)10.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)13.48× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF50.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VGP NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VGP
Frequently asked questions
Is VGP NV (VGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.30 versus a price of €67.90, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VGP?
Our model-based fair value for VGP NV is €22.30 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €67.90.
What is the quality score of VGP?
VGP NV has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VGP NV (VGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.30 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €22.30, optimistic scenario €64.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VGP NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.30, about −67% upside versus a price of €67.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €22.30, optimistic scenario €64.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VGP NV (VGP)?
VGP NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €192M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does VGP NV pay a dividend?
VGP NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into VGP NV (VGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VGP NV would have to grow free cash flow by +39.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VGP use?
Our models discount VGP NV at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VGP NV that is +39.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VGP NV (VGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VGP NV grew +40.9 % a year. The price currently implies +39.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VGP NV (VGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VGP NV (+39.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VGP NV (VGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.75 %: that much free cash flow VGP NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VGP NV (VGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VGP NV it is €22.30 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €67.90. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VGP NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, VGP trades above its calculated fair value: price €67.90, fair value €22.30, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€67.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.30). For VGP NV the two are €45.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VGP NV worth?
The market values VGP NV at about €2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €67.90; our models calculate a fair value of €22.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VGP?
Our models span a range for VGP NV: cautious scenario €22.30, base €22.30, optimistic €64.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €67.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VGP?
VGP NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 13.5, EV/EBITDA 32.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of VGP NV (VGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for VGP NV (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VGP from its 52-week high?
VGP NV trades at €67.90, about 34% below its 52-week high of €102.34 and at the low of €67.90 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VGP NV?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VGP NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €67.90, calculated fair value €22.30 (−67%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VGP calculated?
We run VGP NV through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €22.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. VGP NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VGP NV (VGP)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was €67.90. Our model-based fair value is €22.30, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VGP NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€64.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€22.30 to €64.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of VGP NV (VGP) come from?
Earnings per share at VGP NV grew +8.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.6 %, EBIT margin +20.4 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −22.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VGP NV
How large is the market capitalisation of VGP NV (VGP)?
The market capitalisation of VGP NV is €2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VGP NV (VGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VGP NV is 10.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VGP NV (VGP)?
Earnings per share at VGP NV are €10.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VGP NV (VGP)?
The dividend yield of VGP NV is 10.0% (payout 63.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VGP NV (VGP)?
The net margin of VGP NV is 151% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VGP NV (VGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VGP NV is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VGP NV (VGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VGP NV is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VGP NV (VGP)?
The operating margin of VGP NV is 56.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VGP NV (VGP)?
Revenue at VGP NV is growing +46.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VGP NV (VGP)?
Earnings per share at VGP NV are growing −24.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VGP NV (VGP) carry?
The net debt of VGP NV is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 36.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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