Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Viva Wine Group AB SEK 43.60, price SEK 38.60, upside +13.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range kr 25.76 – kr 52.56 · fair‑value band kr 30.52 – kr 56.68 · the kr 38.60 price screens below the kr 43.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Viva Wine Group AB develops, markets, imports, and sells wines. The company operates through B2B and B2C segments. It Vicampo, Weinfürst, and Wine in Black. The company also operates e-commerce platforms that sell wine directly to consumers. It serves consumers, wholesalers, hotels, and restaurants.
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Viva Wine Group AB develops, markets, imports, and sells wines. The company operates through B2B and B2C segments. It Vicampo, Weinfürst, and Wine in Black. The company also operates e-commerce platforms that sell wine directly to consumers. It serves consumers, wholesalers, hotels, and restaurants. It operates in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, and internationally. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden
Stock analysis
Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) currently trades at kr 38.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 43.60, implying the stock looks roughly 11.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 55.85 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 38.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 12.07, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 30.52 (bear) to kr 56.68 (bull), the price of kr 38.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Viva Wine Group AB reported revenue of 5.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 3.3B SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was 207M SEK in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4B SEK (≈ $346M) · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.37 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 13%, VIVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 30.52Fair Value kr 43.60Bull kr 56.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.5654 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
P/B2.13× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Viva Wine Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VIVA
Frequently asked questions
Is Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 43.60 versus a price of kr 38.60, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VIVA?
Our model-based fair value for Viva Wine Group AB is kr 43.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 38.60.
What is the quality score of VIVA?
Viva Wine Group AB has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 43.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 30.52, optimistic scenario kr 56.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Viva Wine Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 43.60, about +13% upside versus a price of kr 38.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 30.52, optimistic scenario kr 56.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Viva Wine Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Viva Wine Group AB pay a dividend?
Viva Wine Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Viva Wine Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VIVA use?
Our models discount Viva Wine Group AB at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Viva Wine Group AB that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Viva Wine Group AB grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Viva Wine Group AB (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.22 %: that much free cash flow Viva Wine Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Viva Wine Group AB it is kr 43.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 38.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Viva Wine Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VIVA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 38.60, fair value kr 43.60, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VIVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 38.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 43.60). For Viva Wine Group AB the two are kr 5.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Viva Wine Group AB worth?
The market values Viva Wine Group AB at about 3.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 38.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 43.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VIVA?
Our models span a range for Viva Wine Group AB: cautious scenario kr 30.52, base kr 43.60, optimistic kr 56.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 38.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VIVA?
Viva Wine Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 43.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Viva Wine Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VIVA from its 52-week high?
Viva Wine Group AB trades at kr 38.60, at its 52-week high of kr 38.60 and 38% above the low of kr 27.90 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 43.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Viva Wine Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Viva Wine Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 38.60, calculated fair value kr 43.60 (+13%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VIVA calculated?
We run Viva Wine Group AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 43.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Viva Wine Group AB currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was kr 38.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 43.60, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Viva Wine Group AB right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 30.52 to kr 56.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Viva Wine Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The market capitalisation of Viva Wine Group AB is 3.4B SEK (≈ $346M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Viva Wine Group AB is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Earnings per share at Viva Wine Group AB are kr 2.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The dividend yield of Viva Wine Group AB is 4.1% (payout 67.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The net margin of Viva Wine Group AB is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Viva Wine Group AB is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Viva Wine Group AB is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
The operating margin of Viva Wine Group AB is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Revenue at Viva Wine Group AB is growing +51.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA)?
Earnings per share at Viva Wine Group AB are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Viva Wine Group AB (VIVA) carry?
The net debt of Viva Wine Group AB is 1.3B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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