Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Voestalpine AG PK $9.22, price $9.97, upside -7.5%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.40 – $11.65 · fair‑value band $7.26 – $11.93 · the $9.97 price screens above the $9.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Voestalpine AG processes, develops, manufactures, and sells steel and technology products in Austria, the European Union, and internationally. It operates through five divisions: Steel Division, High Performance Metals Division, Metal Engineering Division, Metal Forming Division, and Holding & Group Services.
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Voestalpine AG processes, develops, manufactures, and sells steel and technology products in Austria, the European Union, and internationally. It operates through five divisions: Steel Division, High Performance Metals Division, Metal Engineering Division, Metal Forming Division, and Holding & Group Services. The Steel division produces hot and cold-rolled steel strips, as well as electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, and organically coated steel strips; heavy plates, and foundry products for the energy sector; and turbine casings. The High Performance Metals division offers special high-alloy tool and high-speed steel for the oil and natural gas, aerospace, and energy engineering industries; utilizing nickel-base and titanium alloys; tool manufacturing, component processing, heat treatment, and coating services; warehousing and preprocessing of special steels; and various services, including logistics, distribution, and processing for the oil and natural gas industries. The Metal Engineering division provides wire rods and drawn wires, seamless tubes for special applications, and welding consumables and machinery; rails and digital monitoring systems; and services related to rail infrastructure. The Metal Forming segment manufactures refined special sections, tubes, and precision strip steel products; pre-finished system components made from pressed, punched, and roll-profiled parts; and storage system solutions for manufacturers in the automotive production and supply industries, as well as various companies in the commercial vehicle, construction, storage, energy, and agricultural machinery industries. It serves automotive, energy, railway systems, construction, mechanical engineering, white goods/consumer goods, aerospace, and other industries. Voestalpine AG is headquartered in Linz, Austria.
Stock analysis
Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) currently trades at $9.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.22, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $11.61 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.51, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.26 (bear) to $11.93 (bull), the price of $9.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Voestalpine AG PK reported revenue of €15.2B in FY2026 versus €14.9B in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was €428M in FY2026, compounding −24.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $8.3B · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −8%, VLPNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.26Fair Value $9.22Bull $11.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+37.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.2% vs 13.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 5%
2026 sits 1,244% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.2% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (41 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 405 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Voestalpine AG PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLPNY
Frequently asked questions
Is Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.22 versus a price of $9.97, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VLPNY?
Our model-based fair value for Voestalpine AG PK is $9.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.97.
What is the quality score of VLPNY?
Voestalpine AG PK has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.26, optimistic scenario $11.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Voestalpine AG PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.22, about −8% upside versus a price of $9.97 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.26, optimistic scenario $11.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Voestalpine AG PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Voestalpine AG PK pay a dividend?
Voestalpine AG PK currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Voestalpine AG PK would have to grow free cash flow by -14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLPNY use?
Our models discount Voestalpine AG PK at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Voestalpine AG PK that is -14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Voestalpine AG PK grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies -14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Voestalpine AG PK (-14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 35.63 %: that much free cash flow Voestalpine AG PK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Voestalpine AG PK it is $9.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.97. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Voestalpine AG PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VLPNY trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.97, fair value $9.22, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLPNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.22). For Voestalpine AG PK the two are $0.7500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Voestalpine AG PK worth?
The market values Voestalpine AG PK at about $8.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.97; our models calculate a fair value of $9.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLPNY?
Our models span a range for Voestalpine AG PK: cautious scenario $7.26, base $9.22, optimistic $11.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLPNY?
Voestalpine AG PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.8, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of VLPNY?
The PEG ratio of Voestalpine AG PK is 5.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Voestalpine AG PK (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLPNY from its 52-week high?
Voestalpine AG PK trades at $9.97, about 14% below its 52-week high of $11.65 and 51% above the low of $6.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Voestalpine AG PK?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Voestalpine AG PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.97, calculated fair value $9.22 (−8%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLPNY calculated?
We run Voestalpine AG PK through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Voestalpine AG PK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.97. Our model-based fair value is $9.22, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Voestalpine AG PK right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) come from?
Earnings per share at Voestalpine AG PK grew −6.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin −9.6 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Voestalpine AG PK
How large is the market capitalisation of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The market capitalisation of Voestalpine AG PK is $8.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Voestalpine AG PK is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Earnings per share at Voestalpine AG PK are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The dividend yield of Voestalpine AG PK is 1.8% (payout 32.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The net margin of Voestalpine AG PK is 2.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Voestalpine AG PK is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Voestalpine AG PK is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
The operating margin of Voestalpine AG PK is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Revenue at Voestalpine AG PK is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY)?
Earnings per share at Voestalpine AG PK are growing +169% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Voestalpine AG PK (VLPNY) carry?
The net debt of Voestalpine AG PK is €1.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026