Valley National Bancorp (VLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Valley National Bancorp $13.90, price $12.87, upside +8.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.66 – $15.19 · fair‑value band $10.42 – $17.37 · the $12.87 price screens below the $13.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. The company operates through Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate other segments.
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Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. The company operates through Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate other segments. It offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts; commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; automobile financing; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. The company also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services. In addition, it offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts investment strategies designed for various investment profiles and objectives. Further, the company provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; brokerage services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as private banking and management services. Additionally, it offers niche financial services, including loan and deposit products for homeowners associations, cannabis-related business banking, and venture banking; online, mobile, and telephone banking services; credit cards; and automated teller machine services. Valley National Bancorp was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) currently trades at $12.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.90, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.03 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $12.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.44, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.42 (bear) to $17.37 (bull), the price of $12.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Valley National Bancorp reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.7%/yr. Reported net income was $598M in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.3B · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) $1.11 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 17.1% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 8%, VLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.42Fair Value $13.90Bull $17.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4901 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price and −4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Valley National Bancorp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)34% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)46% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valley National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Valley National Bancorp (VLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.90 versus a price of $12.87, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VLY?
Our model-based fair value for Valley National Bancorp is $13.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.87.
What is the quality score of VLY?
Valley National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $17.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valley National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.90, about +8% upside versus a price of $12.87 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $17.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Valley National Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Valley National Bancorp pay a dividend?
Valley National Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valley National Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by +16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLY use?
Our models discount Valley National Bancorp at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valley National Bancorp that is +16.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valley National Bancorp (VLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valley National Bancorp grew +17.4 % a year. The price currently implies +16.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valley National Bancorp (VLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valley National Bancorp (+16.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.74 %: that much free cash flow Valley National Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valley National Bancorp it is $13.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.87. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Valley National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.87, fair value $13.90, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.90). For Valley National Bancorp the two are $1.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valley National Bancorp worth?
The market values Valley National Bancorp at about $8.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.87; our models calculate a fair value of $13.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLY?
Our models span a range for Valley National Bancorp: cautious scenario $10.42, base $13.90, optimistic $17.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLY?
Valley National Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
What is the PEG ratio of VLY?
The PEG ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valley National Bancorp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLY from its 52-week high?
Valley National Bancorp trades at $12.87, about 15% below its 52-week high of $15.19 and 36% above the low of $9.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valley National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valley National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.87, calculated fair value $13.90 (+8%), Quality Score 44/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLY calculated?
We run Valley National Bancorp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Valley National Bancorp currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.87. Our model-based fair value is $13.90, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valley National Bancorp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Valley National Bancorp (VLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp grew +5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Valley National Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp is $8.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are $1.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp is 3.4% (payout 39.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The net margin of Valley National Bancorp is 17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valley National Bancorp is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valley National Bancorp is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The operating margin of Valley National Bancorp is 46.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Revenue at Valley National Bancorp is growing +23.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are growing +58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valley National Bancorp (VLY) carry?
The net debt of Valley National Bancorp is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026