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Valley National Bancorp (VLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valley National Bancorp stock $12.00, price $14.08, that is 14.8% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

VN Valley National Bancorp logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Valley National Bancorp

VLY · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 35.8% net margin (TTM)
3.1% dividend yield · Low payout
Positive coverage
Broad data
Profit last quarter +30% vs. a year ago.
Quality 51/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.4 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Wide moat 66/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $372,992 (6M)
Fair value $12.00 · Overvalued (−14.8%)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Fintechs like Chime could take low-cost deposits
Watch Valley National Bancorp for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$15.07 $5.61 Fair Value $12.00 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.61 – $15.07 · fair‑value band $9.90 – $13.24 · the $14.08 price screens above the $12.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, private banking, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products.

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The company operates through Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate other segments.

It offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts; commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; automobile financing; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans.

The company also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services.

In addition, it offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts investment strategies designed for various investment profiles and objectives.

Further, the company provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; brokerage services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as private banking and management services.

Additionally, it offers niche financial services, including loan and deposit products for homeowners associations, cannabis-related business banking, and venture banking; online, mobile, and telephone banking services; credit cards; and automated teller machine services.

Valley National Bancorp was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) currently trades at $14.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.00, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.20 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $14.08 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.10, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $9.90 (bear) to $13.24 (bull), the price of $14.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Valley National Bancorp reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.7%/yr. Reported net income was $598M in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $7.9B Mid · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 3.82 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 35.8% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −15%, VLY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.90 Fair Value $12.00 Bull $13.24
Price $14.08 · Downside -14.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7009 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $11.37 $12.00 $13.24 76
Gordon GGM $4.25 $8.18 $11.96 67
DDM Multi-Stage $4.25 $7.21 $8.67 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.25 $8.18 $11.96 67
DDM Multi-Stage $4.25 $7.21 $8.67 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.55 $14.07 $17.58 63
P/B Multiple $9.24 $12.32 $15.40 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.30 $7.10 $10.60 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.37 $12.00 $13.24 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 28
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 49
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 2
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 82
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 66
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 75
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 71
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $372,992 and none bought.

  • SaleMitchell L CrandellEVP & Chief Accounting Officer25,495 shares at $14.63$372,992Jun 12, 2026
  • SaleRussell BarrettSEVP, Chief Operating Officer90,537 shares at $13.54$1.2MApr 27, 2026
  • BuyCarlos J VazquezDirector2,500 shares at $13.45$33,625Feb 17, 2026

Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.9% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

VLY screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The regional bank shows average business quality supported by digital deposit access through acquisition as its main strength while limited moat signals and thin differentiating evidence remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Digital banks and fintechs such as Chime or Ally offering lower-cost alternatives without full regulatory burdens could draw away small-business and retail deposits from Valley National, squeezing its funding costs and net interest margins.
Bull case: By integrating Bluevine's AI-driven platform and low-cost deposits Valley National could accelerate its digital capabilities, retain and attract more small-business customers and structurally lower its funding costs over time.
Bear case: If fintechs and direct banks continue to capture market share with cheaper digital offerings, Valley National might lose significant low-cost deposits, face sustained margin pressure and struggle to fund loan growth profitably.
Valley National is set to acquire Bluevine and its 2.1 billion dollars in low-cost digital deposits from nearly 175,000 small businesses, plus engineering talent to speed up its own digital and AI efforts. The deal targets better funding for loan growth but brings upfront tangible book value dilution with an expected three-year earn-back. Will the projected earnings accretion from synergies and deposit expansion more than cover the integration hurdles and near-term capital impact?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −14.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.5% · Below median
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 35.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 48.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.38× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.82× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 22.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.16× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)14 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)49 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs VLY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs VLY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs VLY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs VLY
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs VLY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs VLY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs VLY
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs VLY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs VLY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs VLY

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Valley National Bancorp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valley National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Valley National Bancorp (VLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.00 versus a price of $14.08, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VLY?
Our model-based fair value for Valley National Bancorp is $12.00 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.08.
What is the quality score of VLY?
Valley National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.00 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.90, optimistic scenario $13.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valley National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.00, about 15% lower versus a price of $14.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.90, optimistic scenario $13.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Valley National Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Valley National Bancorp pay a dividend?
Valley National Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Valley National Bancorp (VLY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Valley National Bancorp pays a dividend of $0.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026, with payment on Jan 4, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1989. The payout ratio is 34.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valley National Bancorp it is $12.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $14.08. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Valley National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, VLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.08, fair value $12.00, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.00). For Valley National Bancorp the two are $2.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valley National Bancorp worth?
The market values Valley National Bancorp at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $14.08; our models calculate a fair value of $12.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLY?
Our models span a range for Valley National Bancorp: cautious scenario $9.90, base $12.00, optimistic $13.24 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $14.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLY?
Valley National Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 11.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
What is the PEG ratio of VLY?
The PEG ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valley National Bancorp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLY from its 52-week high?
Valley National Bancorp trades at $14.08, about 7% below its 52-week high of $15.07 and 40% above the low of $10.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valley National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valley National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $14.08, calculated fair value $12.00 (−15%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLY calculated?
We run Valley National Bancorp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Valley National Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.08. Our model-based fair value is $12.00, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valley National Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Valley National Bancorp (VLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp grew +5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Valley National Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The market capitalisation of Valley National Bancorp is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valley National Bancorp is 3.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The dividend yield of Valley National Bancorp is 3.1% (payout 34.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The net margin of Valley National Bancorp is 35.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valley National Bancorp is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valley National Bancorp is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
The operating margin of Valley National Bancorp is 48.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Revenue at Valley National Bancorp is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valley National Bancorp (VLY)?
Earnings per share at Valley National Bancorp are growing +29.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Valley National Bancorp (VLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Valley National Bancorp is $344M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Valley National Bancorp (VLY) carry?
The net debt of Valley National Bancorp is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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