Vital Energy Inc (VUX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Vital Energy Inc C$0.30, price C$0.10, upside +200.0%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0600 – C$0.5500 · fair‑value band C$0.2316 – C$0.3211 · the C$0.1000 price screens below the C$0.3000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 9, 2026.
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Vital Energy Inc., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company holds interest in the Gull Lake and Pennant projects located in the S.W. Saskatchewan; the Baxter Lake projects located in the East Central Alberta area. Vital Energy Inc.
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Vital Energy Inc., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company holds interest in the Gull Lake and Pennant projects located in the S.W. Saskatchewan; the Baxter Lake projects located in the East Central Alberta area. Vital Energy Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Vital Energy Inc (VUX) currently trades at C$0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.3000, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of C$0.9900 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the C$0.1000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.0600, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.2316 (bear) to C$0.3211 (bull), the price of C$0.1000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Vital Energy Inc reported revenue of C$17.5M in FY2025 versus C$15.1M in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −C$8.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$9.9M (≈ $7.0M) · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.1100 · Net margin −45.8% · Return on equity −70.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4% · Operating margin 38.8% · Revenue (TTM) C$14.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, VUX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.2316Fair Value C$0.3000Bull C$0.3211
Price C$0.1000 · Upside +200.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.2% (2019) → 27.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 274 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−60.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)38.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth38.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vital Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VUX
Frequently asked questions
Is Vital Energy Inc (VUX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.3000 versus a price of C$0.1000, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VUX?
Our model-based fair value for Vital Energy Inc is C$0.3000 (as of Oct 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.1000.
What is the quality score of VUX?
Vital Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.3000 (as of Oct 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.2316, optimistic scenario C$0.3211. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vital Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.3000, about +200% upside versus a price of C$0.1000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$0.2316, optimistic scenario C$0.3211. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Vital Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$14.8M (latest available figure, as of Oct 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vital Energy Inc it is C$0.3000 per share (as of Oct 9, 2026), against a price of C$0.1000. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vital Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 9, 2026, VUX trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.1000, fair value C$0.3000, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VUX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.3000). For Vital Energy Inc the two are C$0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vital Energy Inc worth?
The market values Vital Energy Inc at about C$9.9M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 9, 2026). Per share that is C$0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.3000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VUX?
Our models span a range for Vital Energy Inc: cautious scenario C$0.2316, base C$0.3000, optimistic C$0.3211 per share (as of Oct 9, 2026, price C$0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vital Energy Inc (as of Oct 9, 2026): return on equity −70.8%, debt of 2.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VUX from its 52-week high?
Vital Energy Inc trades at C$0.1000, about 55% below its 52-week high of C$0.2200 and 11% above the low of C$0.0900 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.3000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vital Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vital Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 9, 2026: price C$0.1000, calculated fair value C$0.3000 (+200%), Quality Score 26/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VUX calculated?
We run Vital Energy Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.3000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Vital Energy Inc currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was C$0.1000. Our model-based fair value is C$0.3000, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vital Energy Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$0.2316). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Vital Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The market capitalisation of Vital Energy Inc is C$9.9M (≈ $7.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vital Energy Inc is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Earnings per share at Vital Energy Inc are C$−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The net margin of Vital Energy Inc is −45.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vital Energy Inc is −70.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vital Energy Inc is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
The operating margin of Vital Energy Inc is 38.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Revenue at Vital Energy Inc is growing +38.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vital Energy Inc (VUX)?
Earnings per share at Vital Energy Inc are growing +34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vital Energy Inc (VUX) generate?
The free cash flow of Vital Energy Inc is −C$410K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vital Energy Inc (VUX) carry?
The net debt of Vital Energy Inc is C$25.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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