Vital Energy Inc (VUX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$9.5M (≈ $6.9M) · ISIN CA92847K1093
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +45.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, trading 60% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$0.1900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (C$0.1900 to C$0.3600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0600 – C$0.5500 · fair‑value band C$0.1900 – C$0.3600 · the C$0.1450 price screens below the C$0.3600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Vital Energy Inc (VUX) currently trades at C$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.3600, implying the stock looks roughly 148.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vital Energy Inc generated revenue of C$13.4M at a net margin of -73.6%. Revenue declined 38.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -80.7%. Net debt stands at C$25.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.1900 (bear case) to C$0.3600 (bull case); at C$0.1450, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 148%, VUX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$0.2100) versus Asset-Based (C$0.0600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vital Energy Inc., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company holds interest in the Gull Lake and Pennant projects located in the S.W. Saskatchewan; the Baxter Lake projects located in the East Central Alberta area. Vital Energy Inc.
Full company description
Vital Energy Inc., a junior oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas in Western Canada. The company holds interest in the Gull Lake and Pennant projects located in the S.W. Saskatchewan; the Baxter Lake projects located in the East Central Alberta area. Vital Energy Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vital Energy Inc reported revenue of C$17.5M in FY2025 versus C$15.1M in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −C$8.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 329 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.61 | $90.15 | -31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$68.93 | C$44.78 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $144.50 | $132.20 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.62 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $199.84 | $105.24 | -47% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.83 | $27.06 | -42% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.79 | $42.85 | -22% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $369.40 | $77.26 | -79% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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