VOLKSWAGEN (VWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of VOLKSWAGEN C$16.86, price C$7.16, upside +135.4%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range C$7.16 – C$11.16 · fair‑value band C$16.36 – C$21.07 · the C$7.16 price screens below the C$16.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Volkswagen AG manufactures automobiles and commercial vehicles in Europe, Germany, North America, South America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles; Commercial Vehicles; and Financial Services.
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Volkswagen AG manufactures automobiles and commercial vehicles in Europe, Germany, North America, South America, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles; Commercial Vehicles; and Financial Services. The Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles segment develops vehicles, engines and motors, vehicle software, and vehicle batteries; produces and sells passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and the parts. This segment also offers compact cars, luxury vehicles, and motorcycles, as well as mobility solutions. The Commercial Vehicles segment engages in the development of vehicles, engines, and motors; production and sale of trucks and buses, parts, and related services. The Financial Services segment engages in the dealership and customer financing, leasing, direct banking, and insurance activities; and provision of fleet management, and mobility services. In addition, the company is involved in the large-bore diesel engines, turbomachinery, and propulsion components businesses. It sells its products under the Volkswagen Passenger Cars, "koda, SEAT/CUPRA, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Ducati, Porsche, Scania, MAN, Volkswagen Truck & Bus, TRATON, and Bugatti Rimac, and international commercial vehicles brands to individual, corporate, and fleet customers. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Wolfsburg, Germany. Volkswagen AG operates as a subsidiary of Porsche Automobil Holding SE.
Stock analysis
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) (VWA) currently trades at C$7.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$16.86, implying the stock looks roughly 57.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$30.64 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$7.16 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$16.86, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$16.36 (bear) to C$21.07 (bull), the price of C$7.16 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) reported revenue of €322B in FY2025 versus €250B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding −16.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$4.8B (≈ $3.3B) · P/E ratio 0.5 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) C$19.78 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 135%, VWA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$16.36Fair Value C$16.86Bull C$21.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$14.96 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Compare VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside+130.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$16.86 versus a price of C$7.16, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VWA?
Our model-based fair value for VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$16.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$7.16.
What is the quality score of VWA?
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$16.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$16.36, optimistic scenario C$21.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$16.86, about +135% upside versus a price of C$7.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$16.36, optimistic scenario C$21.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €320B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) it is C$16.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$7.16. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VWA trades below its calculated fair value: price C$7.16, fair value C$16.86, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$7.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$16.86). For VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) the two are C$9.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) worth?
The market values VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) at about C$4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$7.16; our models calculate a fair value of C$16.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VWA?
Our models span a range for VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED): cautious scenario C$16.36, base C$16.86, optimistic C$21.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$7.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VWA?
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$16.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of VWA?
The PEG ratio of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 0.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VWA from its 52-week high?
VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) trades at C$7.16, about 35% below its 52-week high of C$11.00 and at the low of C$7.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$16.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$7.16, calculated fair value C$16.86 (+135%), Quality Score 43/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VWA calculated?
We run VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$16.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was C$7.16. Our model-based fair value is C$16.86, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$16.36). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED)
How large is the market capitalisation of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The market capitalisation of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$4.8B (≈ $3.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Earnings per share at VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) are C$19.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The net margin of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
The operating margin of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Revenue at VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VOLKSWAGEN (VWA)?
Earnings per share at VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) are growing −29.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does VOLKSWAGEN (VWA) generate?
The free cash flow of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is −€9.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does VOLKSWAGEN (VWA) carry?
The net debt of VOLKSWAGEN CDR (CAD HEDGED) is €150B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026