Winpak Ltd (WPK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$2.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from C$29.41 (bear) to C$50.51 (bull), base C$40.40. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 70/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$32.16 – C$51.91 · fair‑value band C$29.41 – C$50.51 · the C$43.76 price screens above the C$40.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Winpak Ltd (WPK) currently trades at C$43.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$40.40, implying the stock looks roughly 7.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Winpak Ltd generated revenue of C$1.1B at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue declined 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$345M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$29.41 (bear case) to C$50.51 (bull case); at C$43.76, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -8%, WPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$40.40) versus Asset-Based (C$14.68). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Winpak Ltd. manufactures and distributes packaging materials and related packaging machines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding, and Packaging Machinery.
Full company description
Winpak Ltd. manufactures and distributes packaging materials and related packaging machines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding, and Packaging Machinery. The Flexible Packaging segment provides modified atmosphere packaging products for fresh and processed meats, poultry, cheese, medical device packaging, high-performance pouches, and high-barrier films for converting applications; specialty films for barrier and non-barrier film converting applications, such as printing, laminating and bag making, as well as shrink bags; and biaxially oriented nylon films for food packaging and industrial applications. The Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding segment offers portion control and single-serve containers, as well as plastic sheet, custom, and retort trays; die-cut, daisy chain, and rollstock formats for food, dairy, beverage, pet food, industrial, and healthcare applications; and specialized printed packaging solutions for the pharmaceutical, healthcare, nutraceutical, cosmetic, and personal care markets. The Packaging Machinery segment provides horizontal fill and seal machines for preformed containers and vertical form, fill, and seal pouch machines for pumpable liquid and semi-liquid, as well as various dry products. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada. Winpak Ltd. is a subsidiary of Wihuri International Oy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Winpak Ltd reported revenue of C$1.1B in FY2025 versus C$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$139M in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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