Winpak Ltd. (WPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Winpak Ltd. C$55.17, price C$43.28, upside +27.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$32.16 – C$51.91 · fair‑value band C$35.76 – C$71.24 · the C$43.28 price screens below the C$55.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Winpak Ltd. manufactures and distributes packaging materials and related packaging machines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding, and Packaging Machinery.
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Winpak Ltd. manufactures and distributes packaging materials and related packaging machines in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding, and Packaging Machinery. The Flexible Packaging segment provides modified atmosphere packaging products for fresh and processed meats, poultry, cheese, medical device packaging, high-performance pouches, and high-barrier films for converting applications; specialty films for barrier and non-barrier film converting applications, such as printing, laminating and bag making, as well as shrink bags; and biaxially oriented nylon films for food packaging and industrial applications. The Rigid Packaging and Flexible Lidding segment offers portion control and single-serve containers, as well as plastic sheet, custom, and retort trays; die-cut, daisy chain, and rollstock formats for food, dairy, beverage, pet food, industrial, and healthcare applications; and specialized printed packaging solutions for the pharmaceutical, healthcare, nutraceutical, cosmetic, and personal care markets. The Packaging Machinery segment provides horizontal fill and seal machines for preformed containers and vertical form, fill, and seal pouch machines for pumpable liquid and semi-liquid, as well as various dry products. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Winnipeg, Canada. Winpak Ltd. is a subsidiary of Wihuri International Oy.
Stock analysis
Winpak Ltd. (WPK) currently trades at C$43.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$55.17, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$40.40 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$43.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$14.68, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$35.76 (bear) to C$71.24 (bull), the price of C$43.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Winpak Ltd. reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $139M in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.6B (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) C$3.15 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 27%, WPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$35.76Fair Value C$55.17Bull C$71.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+28% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Winpak Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WPK
Frequently asked questions
Is Winpak Ltd. (WPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$55.17 versus a price of C$43.28, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WPK?
Our model-based fair value for Winpak Ltd. is C$55.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$43.28.
What is the quality score of WPK?
Winpak Ltd. has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$55.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$35.76, optimistic scenario C$71.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Winpak Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$55.17, about +27% upside versus a price of C$43.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$35.76, optimistic scenario C$71.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Winpak Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Winpak Ltd. pay a dividend?
Winpak Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Winpak Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WPK use?
Our models discount Winpak Ltd. at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Winpak Ltd. that is +3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Winpak Ltd. (WPK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Winpak Ltd. grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Winpak Ltd. (WPK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Winpak Ltd. (+3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.51 %: that much free cash flow Winpak Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Winpak Ltd. it is C$55.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$43.28. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Winpak Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WPK trades below its calculated fair value: price C$43.28, fair value C$55.17, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$43.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$55.17). For Winpak Ltd. the two are C$11.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Winpak Ltd. worth?
The market values Winpak Ltd. at about C$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$43.28; our models calculate a fair value of C$55.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WPK?
Our models span a range for Winpak Ltd.: cautious scenario C$35.76, base C$55.17, optimistic C$71.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$43.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WPK?
Winpak Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$55.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Winpak Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WPK from its 52-week high?
Winpak Ltd. trades at C$43.28, about 17% below its 52-week high of C$51.91 and 10% above the low of C$39.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$55.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Winpak Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Winpak Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$43.28, calculated fair value C$55.17 (+27%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WPK calculated?
We run Winpak Ltd. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$55.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Winpak Ltd. currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$43.28. Our model-based fair value is C$55.17, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Winpak Ltd. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (C$35.76 to C$71.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Winpak Ltd. (WPK) come from?
Earnings per share at Winpak Ltd. grew +5.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Winpak Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The market capitalisation of Winpak Ltd. is C$2.6B (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Winpak Ltd. is 1.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Earnings per share at Winpak Ltd. are C$3.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The dividend yield of Winpak Ltd. is 0.5% (payout 6.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The net margin of Winpak Ltd. is 12.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Winpak Ltd. is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Winpak Ltd. is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
The operating margin of Winpak Ltd. is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Revenue at Winpak Ltd. is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Winpak Ltd. (WPK)?
Earnings per share at Winpak Ltd. are growing −6.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Winpak Ltd. (WPK) hold?
Winpak Ltd. holds more cash than debt, $345M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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