Xref Limited (XF1) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · AU · Market cap A$13.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from A$0.0423 to A$0.0420 (−0.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −21.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0480). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0550 – A$0.8000 · fair‑value band A$0.0360 – A$0.0480 · the A$0.0550 price screens above the A$0.0420 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Xref Limited (XF1) currently trades at A$0.0550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0420, implying the stock looks roughly 23.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xref Limited generated revenue of A$20.6M at a net margin of -10.6%. Revenue declined 6.6% year over year. Net debt stands at A$2.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0360 (bear case) to A$0.0480 (bull case); at A$0.0550, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -24%, XF1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$0.1000) versus Multiples (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xref Limited engages in the development of human resources technology that automates pre-employment recruitment checks, employee engagement surveys, and exit interviews in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the United States. It operates in three segments: Xref Platform, Trust Marketplace, and Xref Engage.
Full company description
Xref Limited engages in the development of human resources technology that automates pre-employment recruitment checks, employee engagement surveys, and exit interviews in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the United States. It operates in three segments: Xref Platform, Trust Marketplace, and Xref Engage. The company provides pre-employment reference, pulse, and exit surveys through its enterprise and recruiter platform; ID verification, and qualification and background checks; and engagement surveys. The company serves not-for profit, health and aged care, construction, retail, and hospitality industries, as well as the government sector. Xref Limited is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xref Limited reported revenue of A$21.3M in FY2025 versus A$14.5M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.0M in FY2025.
XF1 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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