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XP Chemistries AB (XPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XP Chemistries AB stock SEK 0.04, price SEK 0.17, that is 74.2% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials SE · ISIN SE0016787279

XC XP Chemistries AB logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

XP Chemistries AB

XPC · ST
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 74% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter 39% below a year ago.
Fair value kr 0.0425 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 33/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −32.3 %/yr in SEK)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/6)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 3.23 kr 0.0315 Fair Value kr 0.0425 Oct 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 0.0315 – kr 3.23 · fair‑value band kr 0.0255 – kr 0.0595 · the kr 0.1650 price screens above the kr 0.0425 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

XP Chemistries AB (publ), a biotechnology company, engages in the development and production of forest-based capsaicin and analogues. It offers animal feed ingredients; personal care and cosmetic ingredients; pure capsaicinoids; and self-defense spray ingredients.

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The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sundsvall, Sweden.

Stock analysis

XP Chemistries AB (XPC) currently trades at kr 0.1650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.0425, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: kr 0.0255 (bear) to kr 0.0595 (bull), the price of kr 0.1650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

XP Chemistries AB reported revenue of 327K SEK in FY2025 versus 279K SEK in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −8.5M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 51.8M SEK (≈ $5.2M) Micro · EPS (TTM) kr −0.0400 · Return on equity −26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −4,958% · Revenue (TTM) 320K SEK · Revenue growth (YoY) −39.1% · Free cash flow −9.2M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −74%, XPC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 0.0255 Fair Value kr 0.0425 Bull kr 0.0595
Price kr 0.1650 · Downside -74.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.0300 kr 0.0500 kr 0.0700 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.0300 kr 0.0500 kr 0.0700 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 12
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 40
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 10
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 28
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,783.9% (2020) → −3,224.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

XPC screens overvalued: fair value 74% below the price. Compare with BASF SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 336 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −74.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −22.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −39.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.40× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
LG Chem, Ltd 051910 232,000 KRW 587,755 KRW +153% vs XPC
Dow Inc DOW $31.40 $41.88 +33% vs XPC
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.62 ¥19.26 +16% vs XPC
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥21.24 ¥22.31 +5% vs XPC
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 48.06 SAR 36.26 SAR −25% vs XPC
BASF SE BAS €54.28 €38.46 −29% vs XPC
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥32.32 ¥19.31 −40% vs XPC
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 62.70 TWD 35.56 TWD −43% vs XPC
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥38.22 ¥15.80 −59% vs XPC
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥66.38 ¥17.47 −74% vs XPC

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XP Chemistries AB: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XP Chemistries AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPC

Frequently asked questions

Is XP Chemistries AB (XPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 0.0425 versus a price of kr 0.1650, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPC?
Our model-based fair value for XP Chemistries AB is kr 0.0425 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 0.1650.
What is the quality score of XPC?
XP Chemistries AB has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 0.0425 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.0255, optimistic scenario kr 0.0595. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XP Chemistries AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 0.0425, about 74% lower versus a price of kr 0.1650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.0255, optimistic scenario kr 0.0595. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
XP Chemistries AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 320K SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XP Chemistries AB it is kr 0.0425 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 0.1650. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is XP Chemistries AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, XPC trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 0.1650, fair value kr 0.0425, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 0.1650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 0.0425). For XP Chemistries AB the two are kr 0.1225 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XP Chemistries AB worth?
The market values XP Chemistries AB at about 51.8M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 0.1650; our models calculate a fair value of kr 0.0425 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPC?
Our models span a range for XP Chemistries AB: cautious scenario kr 0.0255, base kr 0.0425, optimistic kr 0.0595 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 0.1650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for XP Chemistries AB (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −26.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPC from its 52-week high?
XP Chemistries AB trades at kr 0.1650, about 27% below its 52-week high of kr 0.2260 and 9% above the low of kr 0.1520 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 0.0425 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XP Chemistries AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XP Chemistries AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 0.1650, calculated fair value kr 0.0425 (−74%), Quality Score 33/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPC calculated?
We run XP Chemistries AB through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 0.0425 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. XP Chemistries AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 0.1650. Our model-based fair value is kr 0.0425, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XP Chemistries AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.0595). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 0.0255 to kr 0.0595) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of XP Chemistries AB

How large is the market capitalisation of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The market capitalisation of XP Chemistries AB is 51.8M SEK (≈ $5.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Earnings per share at XP Chemistries AB are kr −0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XP Chemistries AB is −26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XP Chemistries AB is −30.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The operating margin of XP Chemistries AB is −4,958% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Revenue at XP Chemistries AB is growing −39.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does XP Chemistries AB (XPC) generate?
The free cash flow of XP Chemistries AB is −9.2M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does XP Chemistries AB (XPC) hold?
XP Chemistries AB holds more cash than debt, 15.2M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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