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XP Chemistries AB (XPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of XP Chemistries AB SEK 0.04, price SEK 0.19, upside -77.4%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · SE · ISIN SE0016787279

XC Thin data Sep 24, 2026

XP Chemistries AB

XPC · ST

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value kr 0.0425 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 28/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +54.5 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 3.23 kr 0.0315 Fair Value kr 0.0425 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range kr 0.0315 – kr 3.23 · fair‑value band kr 0.0255 – kr 0.0595 · the kr 0.1880 price screens above the kr 0.0425 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

XP Chemistries AB (publ), a biotechnology company, engages in the development and production of forest-based capsaicin and analogues. It offers animal feed ingredients; personal care and cosmetic ingredients; pure capsaicinoids; and self-defense spray ingredients. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sundsvall, Sweden.

Stock analysis

XP Chemistries AB (XPC) currently trades at kr 0.1880, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.0425, implying the stock looks roughly 342.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 0.0255 (bear) to kr 0.0595 (bull), the price of kr 0.1880 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

XP Chemistries AB reported revenue of 327K SEK in FY2025 versus 279K SEK in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −8.5M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 52.0M SEK (≈ $5.2M) · EPS (TTM) kr −0.0300 · Return on equity −32.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.3% · Operating margin −2,305% · Revenue (TTM) 358K SEK · Revenue growth (YoY) +29.5% · Free cash flow −9.2M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −77%, XPC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 0.0255 Fair Value kr 0.0425 Bull kr 0.0595
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.0600 kr 0.0800 kr 0.1200 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.0600 kr 0.0800 kr 0.1200 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5,783.9% (2020) → −3,224.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

XPC screens 342% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.14× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 14.68× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BASF SE BAS €51.79 €23.76 −54%
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 47.90 SAR 24.66 SAR −49%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥23.21 ¥40.44 +74%
Dow Inc DOW $28.20 $21.03 −25%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥34.61 ¥19.88 −43%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.13 ¥2.90 −78%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥73.50 ¥80.85 +10%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,620 IDR 1,581 IDR −2%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥46.39 ¥16.17 −65%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.54 ¥43.28 +162%

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XP Chemistries AB · Fair Value
kr 0.0425 −342%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XP Chemistries AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPC

Frequently asked questions

Is XP Chemistries AB (XPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 0.0425 versus a price of kr 0.1880, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPC?
Our model-based fair value for XP Chemistries AB is kr 0.0425 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 0.1880.
What is the quality score of XPC?
XP Chemistries AB has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 0.0425 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.0255, optimistic scenario kr 0.0595. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XP Chemistries AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 0.0425, about −77% upside versus a price of kr 0.1880 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.0255, optimistic scenario kr 0.0595. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
XP Chemistries AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 358K SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XP Chemistries AB it is kr 0.0425 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 0.1880. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XP Chemistries AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, XPC trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 0.1880, fair value kr 0.0425, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 0.1880); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 0.0425). For XP Chemistries AB the two are kr 0.1455 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XP Chemistries AB worth?
The market values XP Chemistries AB at about 52.0M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 0.1880; our models calculate a fair value of kr 0.0425 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPC?
Our models span a range for XP Chemistries AB: cautious scenario kr 0.0255, base kr 0.0425, optimistic kr 0.0595 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 0.1880). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for XP Chemistries AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −32.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPC from its 52-week high?
XP Chemistries AB trades at kr 0.1880, about 27% below its 52-week high of kr 0.2580 and 18% above the low of kr 0.1600 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 0.0425 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XP Chemistries AB?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XP Chemistries AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 0.1880, calculated fair value kr 0.0425 (−77%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPC calculated?
We run XP Chemistries AB through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 0.0425, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. XP Chemistries AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 0.1880. Our model-based fair value is kr 0.0425, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XP Chemistries AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.0595). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 0.0255 to kr 0.0595) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of XP Chemistries AB

How large is the market capitalisation of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The market capitalisation of XP Chemistries AB is 52.0M SEK (≈ $5.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Earnings per share at XP Chemistries AB are kr −0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XP Chemistries AB is −32.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XP Chemistries AB is −30.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
The operating margin of XP Chemistries AB is −2,305% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XP Chemistries AB (XPC)?
Revenue at XP Chemistries AB is growing +29.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does XP Chemistries AB (XPC) generate?
The free cash flow of XP Chemistries AB is −9.2M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does XP Chemistries AB (XPC) hold?
XP Chemistries AB holds more cash than debt, 15.2M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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