XPEL, Inc (XPEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.3B
XPEL, Inc
XPEL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +12.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.72 – $101.40 · fair‑value band $25.80 – $42.33 · the $50.07 price screens above the $34.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
XPEL, Inc (XPEL) currently trades at $50.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.06, implying the stock looks roughly 32.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XPEL, Inc generated revenue of $490M at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $28.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.80 (bear case) to $42.33 (bull case); at $50.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -32%, XPEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($67.41) versus Asset-Based ($6.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XPEL, Inc. manufactures, installs, sells, and distributes protective films, coatings and related services. It offers automotive and surface paint protection, windshield protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary DAP software.
Full company description
XPEL, Inc. manufactures, installs, sells, and distributes protective films, coatings and related services. It offers automotive and surface paint protection, windshield protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary DAP software. The company also provides pre-cut film products, merchandise and apparel, ceramic coatings, installation, and tools and accessories; and training services to customers for the installation of its products. In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website. The company sells and distributes its products through independent installers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, automobile original equipment manufacturers, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online channels. The company operates in the United States, Canada, China, the Asia Pacific, European Union, the United Kingdom, Africa, India, the Middle East, Latin America, and internationally. XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XPEL, Inc reported revenue of $476M in FY2025 versus $259M in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $51.2M in FY2025, compounding +12.9%/yr from FY2021.
XPEL screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- New Position: Pacific Excel Wealth Advisors Opens $4 Million Stake in XPEL
- Does XPEL (XPEL) Have Long Runway for Growth?
- Is XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
- XPEL, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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