Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd stock $4.62, price $11.33, upside -59.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.19 – $12.80 · fair‑value band $3.28 – $5.78 · the $11.33 price screens above the $4.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in land mobility, marine, outdoor land vehicles, robotics, financial services, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, the rest of North America, Europe, Indonesia, the rest of Asia, and internationally.
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The company offers WaveRunners, snowmobiles, and e-bike systems; and power products, SMT assembly systems, performance dampers, unmanned systems, pools, clean water supply systems, OEM casting and forging, cell picking and imaging systems, and electric motors.
It also provides motorcycles, intermediate parts for products, knockdown parts for overseas production, electrically power-assisted bicycles, electrically power-assisted bicycle drive units, electric wheelchairs, automobile engines, and automobile components; outboard motors, personal watercraft, boats, fishing boats, and utility boats; and all-terrain vehicles, recreational off-highway vehicles, and golf cars.
In addition, the company offers surface mounters, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, industrial robots, and industrial-use unmanned helicopters; purchase financing and leasing of Yamaha Motor products; and industrial unmanned aerial vehicles, generators, multi-purpose engines, snowblowers, and mobility services.
Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Iwata, Japan.
Stock analysis
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) currently trades at $11.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.62, 59.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $3.74 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.33 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.5700, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.28 (bear) to $5.78 (bull), the price of $11.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2025 versus ¥1.8T in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.1B in FY2025, compounding −43.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B Large · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) $1.41 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −59%, YAMHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.5700 to $26.89). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$3.28Fair Value $4.62Bull$5.78
Price $11.33 · Upside -59.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7478 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−21.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.5% vs −21.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.0% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The John Deere partnership bolsters Yamaha's reach in utility side-by-sides, yet persistently low margins and elevated debt underscore a weak moat in the competitive auto sector.
Main risk: Elevated total debt relative to equity combined with thin margins risks pressure on profitability and financial flexibility in the commoditized auto industry.
Yamaha Motor is partnering with John Deere on joint development and mutual supply of recreational off-highway vehicles. The move taps into growing demand for utility side-by-sides that combine work capability with comfort. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will this collaboration mainly strengthen Yamaha's position in powersports or spread its engineering focus across too many vehicle types?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.53× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.63× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow68.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)89· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)85· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YAMHF
Frequently asked questions
Is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.62 versus a price of $11.33, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YAMHF?
Our model-based fair value for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is $4.62 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.33.
What is the quality score of YAMHF?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.62 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.28, optimistic scenario $5.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.62, about −59% upside versus a price of $11.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.28, optimistic scenario $5.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.8T (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YAMHF use?
Our models discount Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd that is +33.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +33.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (+33.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.46 %: that much free cash flow Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd it is $4.62 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $11.33. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, YAMHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.33, fair value $4.62, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YAMHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.62). For Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd the two are $6.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $11.33; our models calculate a fair value of $4.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YAMHF?
Our models span a range for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $3.28, base $4.62, optimistic $5.78 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $11.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YAMHF?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YAMHF from its 52-week high?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd trades at $11.33, about 11% below its 52-week high of $12.80 and 82% above the low of $6.22 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $11.33, calculated fair value $4.62 (−59%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YAMHF calculated?
We run Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was $11.33. Our model-based fair value is $4.62, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) come from?
Earnings per share at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd grew −6.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.0 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The market capitalisation of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 0.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Earnings per share at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd are $1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The dividend yield of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 4.3% (payout 34.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The net margin of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
The operating margin of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Revenue at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is growing +17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Earnings per share at Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd are growing +224% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) carry?
The net debt of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is ¥646B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026