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Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.9B · ISIN JP3942800008

What is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd really worth?

YM Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd logo Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd YAMHF · US
Price$12.80
Fair Value$11.92
Upside−6.9%
Quality49/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $11.92.

As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is $11.92 per share against a price of $12.80, so the fair value sits 7% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/11)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.0% net margin
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 24 out of 100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100

For context

·3.76% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $6.34 – $19.38

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $5.96 to $11.92 (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +14.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($6.34 to $19.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$12.80 $2.29 Fair Value $11.92 Jul 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.29 – $12.80 · fair‑value band $6.34 – $19.38 · the $12.80 price screens above the $11.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) currently trades at $12.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.92, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.18 per share, and 7 of the 22 models we run sit above the $12.80 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.47, and 15 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd generated revenue of ¥2.6T at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at ¥646B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.34 (bear case) to $19.38 (bull case); at $12.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −7%, YAMHF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3468 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $3.98 $6.11 $9.14 80
Growth DCF $4.07 $5.98 $8.55 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $17.37 $31.00 $46.80 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $3.98 $6.11 $9.14 80
5Y Revenue Exit $10.61 $18.63 $28.87 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $17.37 $31.00 $46.80 74
5Y P/E Exit $3.65 $5.89 $8.17 70
10Y Revenue Exit $7.58 $14.18 $22.99 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.21 $22.48 $36.10 66
10Y P/E Exit $3.73 $5.64 $7.86 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.84 $5.12 $6.73 65
Lynch FV $1.03 $1.47 $1.91 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.03 $1.47 $1.91 57
EPV $7.41 $8.66 $9.74 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.47 $5.96 $7.45 63
P/S Multiple $3.45 $4.61 $5.76 58
P/B Multiple $3.45 $4.61 $5.76 55
EV/EBIT $22.98 $30.81 $38.64 66
EV/EBITDA $28.59 $38.29 $47.98 67
EV/Revenue $15.33 $22.12 $28.90 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.52 $12.76 $19.04 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.07 $5.98 $8.55 78
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.96 $12.05 $8.89 71
ROIC Compounder $7.41 $8.66 $9.74 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.55 $5.06 $6.58 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($14.18) versus Earnings-Based ($1.47). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.9
P/S ratio 0.08 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.9900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9
Dividend yield 3.8% payout 48.6%
Net margin 0.6% FY2025
Return on equity 3.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥2.6T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.6% 3y avg +4.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +35.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥25.4B FY2025
Net debt ¥646B FY2025 · ≈ 25.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in land mobility, marine, outdoor land vehicles, robotics, financial services, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, the rest of North America, Europe, Indonesia, the rest of Asia, and internationally.

Full company description

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in land mobility, marine, outdoor land vehicles, robotics, financial services, and other businesses in Japan, the United States, the rest of North America, Europe, Indonesia, the rest of Asia, and internationally. The company offers WaveRunners, snowmobiles, and e-bike systems; and power products, SMT assembly systems, performance dampers, unmanned systems, pools, clean water supply systems, OEM casting and forging, cell picking and imaging systems, and electric motors. It also provides motorcycles, intermediate parts for products, knockdown parts for overseas production, electrically power-assisted bicycles, electrically power-assisted bicycle drive units, electric wheelchairs, automobile engines, and automobile components; outboard motors, personal watercraft, boats, fishing boats, and utility boats; and all-terrain vehicles, recreational off-highway vehicles, and golf cars. In addition, the company offers surface mounters, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, industrial robots, and industrial-use unmanned helicopters; purchase financing and leasing of Yamaha Motor products; and industrial unmanned aerial vehicles, generators, multi-purpose engines, snowblowers, and mobility services. Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Iwata, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2025 versus ¥1.8T in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.1B in FY2025, compounding −43.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
¥2.5T
Latest YoY
−1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−21.7% · in JPY
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−25.5%
Dividend yield3.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −25.5% vs 10Y −21.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.6% (2020) → 4.1% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop404% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in JPY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +8.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.8T
FY22 ¥2.2T
FY23 ¥2.4T
FY24 ¥2.6T
FY25 ¥2.5T
Net income −43.3%/yr
FY21 ¥156B
FY22 ¥174B
FY23 ¥164B
FY24 ¥108B
FY25 ¥16.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −6.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −6.0 %

of which total revenue +5.5 % · buybacks/dilution −10.9 %

EBIT margin +0.5 %
Tax rate −1.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YAMHF

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −7% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.38× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE24 · sector 23
FUTURE83 · sector 27
PAST15 · sector 21
HEALTH81 · sector 94
DIVIDEND75 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $197.11 $251.77 +28%
BYD Company 81211 HK$73.50 HK$46.64 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €81.30 €248.34 +205%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.92 versus a price of $12.80, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of YAMHF?
Our model-based fair value for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is $11.92 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.80.
What is the quality score of YAMHF?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.92 (as of Aug 28, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.34, optimistic scenario $19.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.92, about −7% upside versus a price of $12.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.34, optimistic scenario $19.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd (YAMHF)?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YAMHF?
The net profit margin of Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd is about 1.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Yamaha Motor Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.76% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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