Yara International ASA (YARIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Yara International ASA $35.23, price $21.76, upside +61.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.42 – $29.70 · fair‑value band $23.41 – $53.33 · the $21.76 price screens below the $35.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Yara International ASA provides crop nutrition, ammonia, and industrial solutions in Norway, European Union, Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, Latin America, Australia, and New Zealand.
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Yara International ASA provides crop nutrition, ammonia, and industrial solutions in Norway, European Union, Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, Latin America, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers ammonium- and urea-based fertilizers; compound fertilizers that contain nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium; coatings; biostimulants; organic-based fertilizers; climate choice fertilizers; and nitrate-based fertilizers, as well as foliar and fertigation solutions; and nitrate, calcium nitrate, micronutrient, and urea fertilizers. It also provides digital solutions, such as YaraFX Insight, an agricultural API that connects unparalleled crop nutrition expertise with digital platforms; N-sensors, a tractor-mounted sensor; N-Tester, a handheld tool that measures chlorophyll content; YaraPlus, a digital platform to support crop nutrition decisions; Atfarm, a digital toolbox for farmer; Tankmix, an app and web solutions that provides guidelines; Yara E-commerce, a platform that enables customer access to nutritional solutions; Yara FarmCare, a mobile app for farmers; Yara AllFarm, a farm management platform; YaraConnect, a mobile app for retailers; and Yara Crop Nutrition Recommendation System, a service that helps farmers to make decisions for crop management. The company sells its products under YaraBela, YaraMila, YaraLiva, YaraVita, YaraAmplix, YaraRega, YaraTera, YaraSuna, and YaraVera brand names. Yara International ASA was founded in 1905 and is based in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Yara International ASA (YARIY) currently trades at $21.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.23, implying the stock looks roughly 38.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $45.65 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $21.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.47, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.41 (bear) to $53.33 (bull), the price of $21.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yara International ASA reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.6B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +32.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.2B · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) $2.75 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 62%, YARIY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.41Fair Value $35.23Bull $53.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3403 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.1% vs −2.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 1,325% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 174 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+1.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yara International ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YARIY
Frequently asked questions
Is Yara International ASA (YARIY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.23 versus a price of $21.76, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YARIY?
Our model-based fair value for Yara International ASA is $35.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.76.
What is the quality score of YARIY?
Yara International ASA has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.41, optimistic scenario $53.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yara International ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.23, about +62% upside versus a price of $21.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.41, optimistic scenario $53.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Yara International ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Yara International ASA pay a dividend?
Yara International ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yara International ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YARIY use?
Our models discount Yara International ASA at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yara International ASA that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yara International ASA (YARIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yara International ASA grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yara International ASA (YARIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yara International ASA (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.31 %: that much free cash flow Yara International ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yara International ASA it is $35.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $21.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yara International ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, YARIY trades below its calculated fair value: price $21.76, fair value $35.23, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YARIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.23). For Yara International ASA the two are $13.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yara International ASA worth?
The market values Yara International ASA at about $22.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $21.76; our models calculate a fair value of $35.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YARIY?
Our models span a range for Yara International ASA: cautious scenario $23.41, base $35.23, optimistic $53.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $21.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YARIY?
Yara International ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of YARIY?
The PEG ratio of Yara International ASA is 2.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yara International ASA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YARIY from its 52-week high?
Yara International ASA trades at $21.76, about 27% below its 52-week high of $29.70 and 29% above the low of $16.80 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yara International ASA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yara International ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $21.76, calculated fair value $35.23 (+62%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YARIY calculated?
We run Yara International ASA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Yara International ASA currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $21.76. Our model-based fair value is $35.23, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yara International ASA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($23.41 to $53.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Yara International ASA (YARIY) come from?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA grew −8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yara International ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The market capitalisation of Yara International ASA is $22.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yara International ASA is 0.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA are $2.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The dividend yield of Yara International ASA is 10.6% (payout 83.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The net margin of Yara International ASA is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yara International ASA is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yara International ASA is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
The operating margin of Yara International ASA is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Revenue at Yara International ASA is growing +16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yara International ASA (YARIY)?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA are growing +10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yara International ASA (YARIY) carry?
The net debt of Yara International ASA is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026