York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of York Timber Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 3.44, price ZAR 2.40, upside +43.2%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R1.56 – R3.78 · fair‑value band R2.00 – R5.52 · the R2.40 price screens below the R3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.
Follow York Timber Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether York Timber Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
York Timber Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the forestry, sawmilling, plywood, wholesale, and farming businesses in South Africa and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Processing Plants, Forestry and Fleet, Wholesale, and Agriculture.
Show moreShow less
It operates sawmills that produces and sells various structural and industrial sawn timber products; and plywood plant that manufactures and sells plywood timber products.
The company owns plantations that grows pine and eucalyptus trees; and provides fleet solutions that owns heavy motor vehicles that are used to transport logs.
In addition, it is involved in operating distribution centers that sells timber-related products from the sawmills, plywood plants, and external suppliers; and owns land with avocados, and citrus and macadamias orchards, as well as fruit packaging facility.
The company was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Sabie, South Africa.
Stock analysis
York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) currently trades at R2.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R3.44, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R5.49 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the R2.40 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R1.46, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R2.00 (bear) to R5.52 (bull), the price of R2.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
York Timber Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.9B ZAR in FY2026 versus 1.8B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 91.7M ZAR in FY2026, compounding −15.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B ZAR Micro · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) R0.2900 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 43%, YRK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR2.00Fair Value R3.44BullR5.52
Price R2.40 · Upside +43.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1073 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFR0.6300R1.05R1.5380
Growth DCFR0.6300R1.00R1.4078
Owner EarningsR2.53R3.49R4.5777
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFR0.6300R1.05R1.5380
Owner EarningsR2.53R3.49R4.5777
5Y Revenue ExitR1.85R3.54R5.6771
5Y EBITDA ExitR2.42R4.57R7.0373
5Y P/E ExitR0.9600R1.93R2.9169
10Y Revenue ExitR1.13R2.27R3.7564
10Y EBITDA ExitR1.48R2.82R4.5366
10Y P/E ExitR0.7700R1.43R2.1862
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR1.34R3.61R4.7365
Lynch FVR0.7100R1.01R1.3161
PEG = 1.0R0.7100R1.01R1.3157
EPVR1.64R1.90R2.1074
Multiples
P/E MultipleR2.52R3.36R4.1963
P/S MultipleR2.52R3.36R4.1958
P/B MultipleR15.28R20.37R25.4655
EV/EBITR4.31R6.16R8.0265
EV/EBITDAR4.60R6.55R8.4967
EV/RevenueR3.00R4.81R6.6353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R3.39R4.55R6.7954
Growth DCF
Growth DCFR0.6300R1.00R1.4078
Rev-Margin DCFR1.85R3.54R5.3971
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeR3.54R3.75R4.1371
ROIC CompounderR1.64R1.90R2.1072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER2.02R2.89R3.7667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.0% vs −11.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.4% a year for the price.
Compare York Timber Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+43.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Return on assets1.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.35× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.59× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.0× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R3.44 versus a price of R2.40, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YRK?
Our model-based fair value for York Timber Holdings Ltd is R3.44 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R2.40.
What is the quality score of YRK?
York Timber Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R3.44 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R2.00, optimistic scenario R5.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the York Timber Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R3.44, about +43% upside versus a price of R2.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R2.00, optimistic scenario R5.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
York Timber Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, York Timber Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YRK use?
Our models discount York Timber Holdings Ltd at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For York Timber Holdings Ltd that is +33.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at York Timber Holdings Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +33.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into York Timber Holdings Ltd (+33.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.17 %: that much free cash flow York Timber Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For York Timber Holdings Ltd it is R3.44 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of R2.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is York Timber Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, YRK trades below its calculated fair value: price R2.40, fair value R3.44, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R2.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R3.44). For York Timber Holdings Ltd the two are R1.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is York Timber Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values York Timber Holdings Ltd at about 1.1B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is R2.40; our models calculate a fair value of R3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YRK?
Our models span a range for York Timber Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R2.00, base R3.44, optimistic R5.52 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price R2.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YRK?
York Timber Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R3.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for York Timber Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YRK from its 52-week high?
York Timber Holdings Ltd trades at R2.40, about 1% below its 52-week high of R2.42 and 33% above the low of R1.80 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to York Timber Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Stella-Jones Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is York Timber Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price R2.40, calculated fair value R3.44 (+43%), Quality Score 35/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YRK calculated?
We run York Timber Holdings Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R3.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. York Timber Holdings Ltd currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was R2.40. Our model-based fair value is R3.44, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with York Timber Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R2.00 to R5.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) come from?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd grew −5.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.1 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of York Timber Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The market capitalisation of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 1.1B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd are R0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The net margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 4.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The operating margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Revenue at York Timber Holdings Ltd is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd are growing −53.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) carry?
The net debt of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 579M ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Why does York Timber Holdings Ltd not meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is higher?
Trough year lifted: R2.82 → R3.44. The latest year was a trough or loss year. So we calculate with a normal year: R3.44 instead of R2.82. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +18% against the price.
Free · no account needed
Watch York Timber Holdings Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts York Timber Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 10, 2026