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York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of York Timber Holdings Ltd ZAR 3.18, price ZAR 2.25, upside +41.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · ZA · ISIN ZAE000133450

YT Thin data Sep 27, 2026

York Timber Holdings Ltd

YRK · JSE

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value R3.18 · Undervalued (+41.5%)
!Quality 50/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R3.78 R1.56 Fair Value R3.18 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R1.56 – R3.78 · fair‑value band R2.34 – R4.14 · the R2.25 price screens below the R3.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

York Timber Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the forestry, sawmilling, plywood, wholesale, and farming businesses in South Africa and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Processing Plants, Forestry and Fleet, Wholesale, and Agriculture.

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York Timber Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the forestry, sawmilling, plywood, wholesale, and farming businesses in South Africa and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Processing Plants, Forestry and Fleet, Wholesale, and Agriculture. It operates sawmills that produces and sells various structural and industrial sawn timber products; and plywood plant that manufactures and sells plywood timber products. The company owns plantations that grows pine and eucalyptus trees; and provides fleet solutions that owns heavy motor vehicles that are used to transport logs. In addition, it is involved in operating distribution centers that sells timber-related products from the sawmills, plywood plants, and external suppliers; and owns land with avocados, and citrus and macadamias orchards, as well as fruit packaging facility. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Sabie, South Africa.

Stock analysis

York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) currently trades at R2.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R3.18, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R11.59 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the R2.25 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R4.04, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R2.34 (bear) to R4.14 (bull), the price of R2.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

York Timber Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 2.0B ZAC in FY2025 versus 1.9B ZAC in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was 317M ZAC in FY2025, compounding +23.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 1.0B ZAC · P/E ratio 4.4 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) R0.5100 · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin −1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 41%, YRK screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R2.34 Fair Value R3.18 Bull R4.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5100 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings R4.91 R6.97 R9.48 77
EPV R4.66 R5.30 R5.82 74
ROIC Compounder R4.66 R5.30 R5.82 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R4.91 R6.97 R9.48 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R4.64 R13.56 R17.91 65
Lynch FV R2.82 R4.04 R5.25 61
PEG = 1.0 R2.82 R4.04 R5.25 57
EPV R4.66 R5.30 R5.82 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple R8.69 R11.59 R14.48 63
P/S Multiple R4.83 R6.44 R8.05 58
P/B Multiple R8.69 R11.59 R14.48 55
EV/EBIT R9.82 R13.32 R16.82 66
EV/EBITDA R8.56 R11.64 R14.72 67
EV/Revenue R3.83 R5.76 R7.70 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R3.29 R4.41 R6.59 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R5.31 R5.68 R6.40 71
ROIC Compounder R4.66 R5.30 R5.82 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R7.20 R10.28 R13.37 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 81
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 9.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 23%
2025 sits 74% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside +41.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)89 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 36

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $176.55 $194.21 +10%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $79.49 $103.76 +31%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $77.14 $52.27 −32%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹694.45 ₹201.01 −71%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥11.40 ¥15.06 +32%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$15.81 C$4.54 −71%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.47 C$6.43 −56%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥2.09 ¥0.5400 −74%
Greenply Industries Limited GREENPLY ₹287.25 ₹100.71 −65%
Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group 601996 ¥2.90 ¥3.01 +4%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "York Timber Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YRK

Frequently asked questions

Is York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R3.18 versus a price of R2.25, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YRK?
Our model-based fair value for York Timber Holdings Ltd is R3.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R2.25.
What is the quality score of YRK?
York Timber Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R3.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario R2.34, optimistic scenario R4.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the York Timber Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R3.18, about +41% upside versus a price of R2.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R2.34, optimistic scenario R4.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
York Timber Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For York Timber Holdings Ltd it is R3.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R2.25. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is York Timber Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, YRK trades below its calculated fair value: price R2.25, fair value R3.18, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R2.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R3.18). For York Timber Holdings Ltd the two are R0.9330 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is York Timber Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values York Timber Holdings Ltd at about 1.0B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R2.25; our models calculate a fair value of R3.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YRK?
Our models span a range for York Timber Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R2.34, base R3.18, optimistic R4.14 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R2.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YRK?
York Timber Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R3.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for York Timber Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YRK from its 52-week high?
York Timber Holdings Ltd trades at R2.25, about 9% below its 52-week high of R2.48 and 25% above the low of R1.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R3.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to York Timber Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Century Plyboards (India) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is York Timber Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R2.25, calculated fair value R3.18 (+41%), Quality Score 50/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YRK calculated?
We run York Timber Holdings Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R3.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. York Timber Holdings Ltd currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R2.25. Our model-based fair value is R3.18, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with York Timber Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R2.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) come from?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.8 %, EBIT margin +7.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of York Timber Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The market capitalisation of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 1.0B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 0.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd are R0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The net margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
The operating margin of York Timber Holdings Ltd is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Revenue at York Timber Holdings Ltd is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK)?
Earnings per share at York Timber Holdings Ltd are growing −53.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) generate?
The free cash flow of York Timber Holdings Ltd is −64.5M ZAC (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does York Timber Holdings Ltd (YRK) carry?
The net debt of York Timber Holdings Ltd is 583M ZAC (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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