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York Timber Holdings (YRK) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 980M ZAC

YT York Timber Holdings YRK · JSE
PriceR2.20
Fair ValueR3.23
Upside+46.9%
Quality50/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.1% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Narrow moat 32/100
Evidence: High Range R3.06 – R3.92 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R7.70 to R3.23 (−58.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (R3.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R3.78 R1.56 Fair Value R3.23 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R1.56 – R3.78 · fair‑value band R3.06 – R3.92 · the R2.20 price screens below the R3.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

York Timber Holdings (YRK) currently trades at R2.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R3.23, implying the stock looks roughly 46.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, York Timber Holdings generated revenue of 2.0B ZAR at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 583M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R3.06 (bear case) to R3.92 (bull case); at R2.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -39% fair-value upside, at 47%, YRK screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income R5.46 R5.96 R7.79 76
ROIC Compounder R5.30 R6.12 R6.96 72
Gordon GGM R0.4600 R0.8300 R1.15 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R4.49 R6.67 R9.53 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R4.64 R13.56 R17.91 54
Lynch FV R2.82 R4.04 R5.25 50
PEG = 1.0 R2.82 R4.04 R5.25 46
EPV R5.30 R6.12 R6.80 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R0.4600 R0.8300 R1.15 70
DDM Multi-Stage R0.4600 R0.7000 R0.8900 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R8.69 R11.59 R14.48 63
P/S Multiple R4.83 R6.44 R8.05 58
P/B Multiple R8.69 R11.59 R14.48 55
EV/EBIT R9.82 R13.32 R16.82 53
EV/EBITDA R8.56 R11.64 R14.72 54
EV/Revenue R3.83 R5.76 R7.70 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R3.29 R4.41 R6.59 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income R5.46 R5.96 R7.79 76
ROIC Compounder R5.30 R6.12 R6.96 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R7.20 R10.28 R13.37 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (R11.59) versus Dividend Discount (R0.7000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.0B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.8%
Net margin 12.1%
Return on equity 7.9%
Free cash flow −64.5M ZAC FY2025
P/E ratio 4.3
More key figures
Operating margin -1.4%
EPS (TTM) R0.5100
EPS growth (YoY) -53.0%
Net debt 583M ZAC FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 81
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

York Timber Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the forestry, sawmilling, plywood, wholesale, and farming businesses in South Africa and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Processing Plants, Forestry and Fleet, Wholesale, and Agriculture.

Full company description

York Timber Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the forestry, sawmilling, plywood, wholesale, and farming businesses in South Africa and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Processing Plants, Forestry and Fleet, Wholesale, and Agriculture. It operates sawmills that produces and sells various structural and industrial sawn timber products; and plywood plant that manufactures and sells plywood timber products. The company owns plantations that grows pine and eucalyptus trees; and provides fleet solutions that owns heavy motor vehicles that are used to transport logs. In addition, it is involved in operating distribution centers that sells timber-related products from the sawmills, plywood plants, and external suppliers; and owns land with avocados, and citrus and macadamias orchards, as well as fruit packaging facility. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is headquartered in Sabie, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

York Timber Holdings reported revenue of R2.0B in FY2025 versus R1.9B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was R317M in FY2025, compounding +23.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.0B ZAR
Latest YoY
+14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.8%
Revenue +0.8%/yr
FY21 R1.9B
FY22 R1.8B
FY23 R1.7B
FY24 R1.7B
FY25 R2.0B
Net income +23.3%/yr
FY21 R137M
FY22 R183M
FY23 −R313M
FY24 R136M
FY25 R317M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.8 pp

of which total revenue +2.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.8 pp

EBIT margin +7.2 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "York Timber Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YRK

Peer Group

Lumber & Wood Production · 79 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside +47% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Return on assets -0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -1% · Below median
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.11× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.32× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.50× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 96 · sector 15
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 32 · sector 0
HEALTH 94 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $194.83 $145.26 -25%
West Fraser Timber Co WFG C$97.70 C$33.38 -66%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $92.82 $107.07 +15%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$75.22 C$92.56 +23%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $84.25 $51.39 -39%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹763.85 ₹201.01 -74%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥12.58 ¥14.78 +17%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$15.73 C$4.54 -71%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.38 C$6.43 -55%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥3.17 ¥0.6700 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is York Timber Holdings (YRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R3.23 versus a price of R2.20, about +47% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YRK?
Our model-based fair value for York Timber Holdings is R3.23 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R2.20.
What is the quality score of YRK?
York Timber Holdings has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of York Timber Holdings (YRK)?
York Timber Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YRK?
The net profit margin of York Timber Holdings is about 12.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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