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secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft (YSN) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · DE · Market cap €1.1B

SS secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft YSN · XETRA
Price€190.60
Fair Value€103.08
Upside-45.9%
Quality69/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/15)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range €77.31 – €128.85 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Share price +10.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€128.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€556.81 €88.13 Fair Value €103.08 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €88.13 – €556.81 · fair‑value band €77.31 – €128.85 · the €190.60 price screens above the €103.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft (YSN) currently trades at €190.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €103.08, implying the stock looks roughly 45.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft generated revenue of €462M at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €67.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €77.31 (bear case) to €128.85 (bull case); at €190.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -46%, YSN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €105.06 €168.50 €264.48 80
Residual Income €28.83 €36.61 €91.43 76
Rev-Margin DCF €93.69 €153.95 €235.98 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €107.67 €179.70 €306.69 38
Owner Earnings €97.36 €164.55 €274.68 31
5Y Revenue Exit €93.69 €155.70 €241.56 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €114.58 €200.91 €312.77 41
5Y P/E Exit €92.89 €153.97 €225.78 38
10Y Revenue Exit €95.41 €154.18 €248.00 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €110.58 €185.31 €305.09 37
10Y P/E Exit €97.15 €152.99 €235.34 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €35.05 €190.90 €264.73 54
Lynch FV €53.00 €75.71 €98.43 50
PEG = 1.0 €53.00 €75.71 €98.43 46
EPV €55.16 €60.90 €65.69 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €21.21 €38.22 €52.61 70
DDM Multi-Stage €21.21 €34.91 €40.83 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €77.31 €103.08 €128.85 63
P/S Multiple €65.71 €87.62 €109.52 58
P/B Multiple €58.09 €77.46 €96.82 55
EV/EBIT €121.95 €158.25 €194.55 53
EV/EBITDA €126.72 €164.61 €202.50 54
EV/Revenue €86.46 €117.92 €149.38 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €12.91 €17.30 €25.82 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €105.06 €168.50 €264.48 80
Rev-Margin DCF €93.69 €153.95 €235.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €28.83 €36.61 €91.43 76
ROIC Compounder €59.97 €72.07 €85.98 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €75.50 €107.86 €140.22 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€155.70) versus Asset-Based (€17.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €462M
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net margin 6.5%
Return on equity 21.0%
Free cash flow €54.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 33.1
More key figures
Operating margin -11.4%
EPS (TTM) €5.15
EPS growth (YoY) +5.2%
Net cash €67.2M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft operates as a cybersecurity company in Germany and internationally. It operates in Public Sector and Business Sector segments.

Full company description

secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft operates as a cybersecurity company in Germany and internationally. It operates in Public Sector and Business Sector segments. The company provides safety audits and analyses; Biomiddle, a middleware for biometrics and eID applications; Bocoa, a digital ID tool; Easygate, an automated border control system; Easykiosk, a self-service kiosk system; SINA workstations to process classified data; Artificial Intelligence; EID public key infrastructure suite to secure digital processes; and GRT platinum edition, a readout tool for sovereign ID documents. It offers Easytower for facial images for all stationary applications; Secunet Edge, a cloud based service; Globaltester, a tool for conformity testing; hardware security modules; secunet konnektor for healthcare telematics; Protect4use to protect digital identity; IT security outsourcing; and Session Border Controller for secure VoIP telephony. In addition, the company offers Secunet Monitor KRITIS, an attack detection solution; SINA Communicator H, a multi-crypto phone; SINA Workflow, digital management of classified information; Stashcat, a secure messaging for police, public authorities, and companies; identity and access management solutions; incident response solutions; systems for modern police work; SINA L2 box to transfer data; SINA L3 box for encrypted information transfer; and SINA Mobile for smartphones. Further, it provides a business continuity management system; security awareness campaign; awareness training and biometric solutions; crypto services and cybersecurity situation; data protection management; information security management; secure web solutions; EES for air, land, and sea borders; security analyses and penetration tests; test lab for IT-conformity. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €459M in FY2025 versus €338M in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was €33.3M in FY2025, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€459M
Latest YoY
+12.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y)
+13.9%
Revenue +8.0%/yr
FY21 €338M
FY22 €347M
FY23 €394M
FY24 €406M
FY25 €459M
Net income −6.2%/yr
FY21 €43.1M
FY22 €31.3M
FY23 €29.2M
FY24 €28.0M
FY25 €33.3M

YSN screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YSN

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -11% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 33.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 7.64× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.76× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 23.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 19.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.40× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 23 · sector 46
PAST 84 · sector 15
HEALTH 99 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $384.00 $274.17 -29%
Oracle Corporation ORAC C$9.08 C$2.94 -68%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $160.78 $44.96 -72%
Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS €354.50 €93.61 -74%
Block, Inc XYZ A$114.53 A$70.69 -38%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $79.94 $44.89 -44%
Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 ¥71.60 ¥34.00 -53%
Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS ₹11,651 ₹5,821 -50%
360 Security Technology Inc 601360 ¥9.64 ¥5.05 -48%
One97 Communications Limited PAYTM ₹1,342 ₹181.50 -86%

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Frequently asked questions

Is secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft (YSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €103.08 versus a price of €190.60, about −46% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YSN?
Our model-based fair value for secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft is €103.08 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €190.60.
What is the quality score of YSN?
secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft (YSN)?
secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €462M (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YSN?
The net profit margin of secunet Security Networks Aktiengesellschaft is about 6.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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