Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock $40.66, price $57.66, that is 29.5% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range $44.21 – $82.44 · fair‑value band $18.03 – $50.83 · the $57.66 price screens above the $40.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the management of food service chain restaurants, and development of sales systems and food processing systems in Japan, the Americas, China, Europe, ASEAN, and internationally.
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It operates through Global Sukiya, Global Hamasushi, Global Fast Food, Restaurants, Retail, Corporate and Support, and Other segments.
The company's restaurants offer gyudon, udon, and hamburger steaks, as well as provides conveyor-belt sushi restaurant, coffee shop, and dining services under the Sukiya, Nakau, Coco's, Big Boy, Victoria Station, Jolly Pasta, EI Torito, Hama-sushi, Hanaya Yohei, Denmaru, Kyubeiya, Seto Udon, Tamon'an, Moriva Coffee, Café Milano, Katsu-An, Olive Hill, and Lotteria brands.
It also operates Chicken Rice Shop, as well as sells products under AFC, ZENSHI, SNOWFOX, SNOWFRUIT, Bento, YO!, Taiko, SushiTake, and Sushi Circle brands.
In addition, the company operates supermarket chains under United Veggies, Maruya, Yamaguchi Supermarket, Maruei, and Very Foods Owariya brand names; and offers residential and nursing care services for the elderly under Kagayaki, Royalhouse Ishioka, Senior Life Support, NYEREG, and IMedicare brand names.
The company was formerly known as Zensho Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. in October 2011. Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) currently trades at $57.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.66, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $44.64 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $57.66 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.00, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.03 (bear) to $50.83 (bull), the price of $57.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2026 versus ¥659B in FY2022, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥45.8B in FY2026, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B Mid · P/E ratio 28.0 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $2.06 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −29%, ZSHOF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.03Fair Value $40.66Bull$50.83
Price $57.66 · Downside -29.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9690 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.0% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Zensho draws strength from scale in its high-volume restaurant chains that drives efficiency and profit growth ahead of revenue, yet low margins, limited differentiation and high leverage point to only a modest moat.
Main risk: Chains such as Sushiro from Food & Life Companies and Matsuya Foods' Sushimatsu could capture more market share in conveyor-belt sushi, while Yoshinoya and Matsuya compete in gyudon and pressure prices as well as margins at Sukiya and Hama Sushi.
Bull case: Zensho could use its vertical integration and procurement scale to keep prices competitive and gain share from rivals in both gyudon and sushi segments.
Bear case: If rivals like Sushiro and Matsuya's new sushi format expand faster, Zensho's chains might lose volume and face sustained margin pressure from price competition.
Zensho's main chains keep posting steady same-store sales gains, as seen in the latest monthly figures for Sukiya and Hama Sushi. Those volume increases have driven profit growth well ahead of revenue in the most recent quarter. Rising raw material and wage costs remain a clear risk that could cap how much further margin improvement is possible. Will the efficiency gains from its high-volume model continue to outpace those pressures?
Compare Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.66 versus a price of $57.66, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZSHOF?
Our model-based fair value for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is $40.66 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.66.
What is the quality score of ZSHOF?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.66 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.03, optimistic scenario $50.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.66, about 29% lower versus a price of $57.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.03, optimistic scenario $50.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd pays a dividend of $0.474 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 25.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.77 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +35.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZSHOF use?
Our models discount Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd that is +35.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +35.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (+35.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.46 %: that much free cash flow Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd it is $40.66 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $57.66. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ZSHOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $57.66, fair value $40.66, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZSHOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.66). For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd the two are $17.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $57.66; our models calculate a fair value of $40.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZSHOF?
Our models span a range for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $18.03, base $40.66, optimistic $50.83 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $57.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZSHOF?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZSHOF from its 52-week high?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd trades at $57.66, about 30% below its 52-week high of $82.44 and 4% above the low of $55.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $57.66, calculated fair value $40.66 (−29%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZSHOF calculated?
We run Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $40.66 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $57.66. Our model-based fair value is $40.66, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($18.03 to $50.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The market capitalisation of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 1.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Earnings per share at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd are $2.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The dividend yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 0.8% (payout 23.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The net margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The operating margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Revenue at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Earnings per share at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd are growing +89.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) carry?
The net debt of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is ¥182B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026