Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd $34.80, price $57.66, upside -39.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range $44.21 – $61.15 · fair‑value band $13.05 – $43.51 · the $57.66 price screens above the $34.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the management of food service chain restaurants, and development of sales systems and food processing systems in Japan, the Americas, China, Europe, ASEAN, and internationally. It operates through Global Sukiya, Global Hamasushi, Global Fast Food, Restaurants, Retail, Corporate and Support, and Other segments.
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Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the management of food service chain restaurants, and development of sales systems and food processing systems in Japan, the Americas, China, Europe, ASEAN, and internationally. It operates through Global Sukiya, Global Hamasushi, Global Fast Food, Restaurants, Retail, Corporate and Support, and Other segments. The company's restaurants offer gyudon, udon, and hamburger steaks, as well as provides conveyor-belt sushi restaurant, coffee shop, and dining services under the Sukiya, Nakau, Coco's, Big Boy, Victoria Station, Jolly Pasta, EI Torito, Hama-sushi, Hanaya Yohei, Denmaru, Kyubeiya, Seto Udon, Tamon'an, Moriva Coffee, Café Milano, Katsu-An, Olive Hill, and Lotteria brands. It also operates Chicken Rice Shop, as well as sells products under AFC, ZENSHI, SNOWFOX, SNOWFRUIT, Bento, YO!, Taiko, SushiTake, and Sushi Circle brands. In addition, the company operates supermarket chains under United Veggies, Maruya, Yamaguchi Supermarket, Maruei, and Very Foods Owariya brand names; and offers residential and nursing care services for the elderly under Kagayaki, Royalhouse Ishioka, Senior Life Support, NYEREG, and IMedicare brand names. The company was formerly known as Zensho Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. in October 2011. Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) currently trades at $57.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.80, implying the stock looks roughly 65.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $39.84 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $57.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.48, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.05 (bear) to $43.51 (bull), the price of $57.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.1T in FY2025 versus ¥595B in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥39.3B in FY2025, compounding +104.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B · P/E ratio 36.3 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) $1.59 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −40%, ZSHOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.05Fair Value $34.80Bull $43.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+41.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 7%
2025 sits 175% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.0% a year for the price and +7.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 224 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.13× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)65· sector 18
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)45· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.80 versus a price of $57.66, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZSHOF?
Our model-based fair value for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is $34.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.66.
What is the quality score of ZSHOF?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.05, optimistic scenario $43.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.80, about −40% upside versus a price of $57.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.05, optimistic scenario $43.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +42.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZSHOF use?
Our models discount Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd that is +42.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +42.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (+42.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.06 %: that much free cash flow Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd it is $34.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $57.66. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ZSHOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $57.66, fair value $34.80, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZSHOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.80). For Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd the two are $22.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $57.66; our models calculate a fair value of $34.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZSHOF?
Our models span a range for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $13.05, base $34.80, optimistic $43.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $57.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZSHOF?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZSHOF from its 52-week high?
Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd trades at $57.66, at its 52-week high of $57.66 and 5% above the low of $55.13 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $57.66, calculated fair value $34.80 (−40%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZSHOF calculated?
We run Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $57.66. Our model-based fair value is $34.80, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($13.05 to $43.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The market capitalisation of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Earnings per share at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd are $1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The dividend yield of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 0.9% (payout 30.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The net margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
The operating margin of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Revenue at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is growing +12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF)?
Earnings per share at Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd are growing +116% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd (ZSHOF) carry?
The net debt of Zensho Holdings Co. Ltd is ¥220B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026