Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd stock ¥155, price ¥81.10, upside +90.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥68.00 – ¥230.82 · fair‑value band ¥90.23 – ¥222.65 · the ¥81.10 price screens below the ¥154.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells alcoholic products in China and internationally.
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The company offers liquor products; and cellar-aged, red, and health wine under the Guojiao 1573, Luzhou Laojiao Special Liquor, Centennial Luzhou Laojiao Cellar-aged Liquor, Luzhou Laojiao Touqu, Luzhou Laojiao Black Cap, Gaoguang, Luzhou Laojiao 1952, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ, Touqu, and Heigai brands.
It is also involved in the sales of fruit wine; cultivation and sale of agricultural products; import and export of food and alcoholic beverages; and technology and business development services.
In addition, the company provides support services comprising contact district, advertising and procurement platforms, online consultation, and service platforms. Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Luzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) currently trades at ¥81.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥154.52, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥177.26 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥81.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥21.32, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥90.23 (bear) to ¥222.65 (bull), the price of ¥81.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 20.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 10.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 119B CNY (≈ $17.9B) Large · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 6.91 · EPS (TTM) ¥3.90 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 33.2% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 91%, 000568 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥90.23Fair Value ¥154.52Bull¥222.65
Price ¥81.10 · Upside +90.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.1% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 12.4% / 21.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 54%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.9% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High margins support pricing power, yet limited public signals on other moat factors and thin evidence leave overall durability unverified.
Main risk: Named rivals such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye could launch independent low-alcohol brands with direct-to-consumer models and steep discounts, eroding Luzhou Laojiao's share in premium and youth segments and pressuring its prices and margins.
Bull case: Luzhou Laojiao could extend its established low-alcohol lines and NBA partnership into direct youth channels to gain share from rivals' new offerings.
Bear case: If rivals' independent low-alcohol brands and price competition accelerate the shift away from traditional premium baijiu, Luzhou Laojiao's volumes and margins could face sustained pressure from substitution by cheaper or alternative drinks.
Luzhou Laojiao recently became an official NBA China marketing partner, with events and themed products rolling out in October. This comes as the baijiu sector faces softer domestic demand and sales volumes remain under pressure. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the new brand platform lift results enough to offset channel challenges, or will weak consumption trends continue to weigh?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 89 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000568
Frequently asked questions
Is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥154.52 versus a price of ¥81.10, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000568?
Our model-based fair value for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is ¥154.52 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥81.10.
What is the quality score of 000568?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥154.52 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥90.23, optimistic scenario ¥222.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥154.52, about +91% upside versus a price of ¥81.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥90.23, optimistic scenario ¥222.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000568 use?
Our models discount Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd that is +3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies +3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (+3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.35 %: that much free cash flow Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd it is ¥154.52 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥81.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 000568 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥81.10, fair value ¥154.52, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000568?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥81.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥154.52). For Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd the two are ¥73.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd worth?
The market values Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd at about 119B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥81.10; our models calculate a fair value of ¥154.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000568?
Our models span a range for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥90.23, base ¥154.52, optimistic ¥222.65 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥81.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000568?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥154.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.5. Other multiples: PEG 73.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 6.9, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000568?
The PEG ratio of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 72.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000568 from its 52-week high?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd trades at ¥81.10, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥134.11 and 19% above the low of ¥68.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥154.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥81.10, calculated fair value ¥154.52 (+91%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000568 calculated?
We run Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥154.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥81.10. Our model-based fair value is ¥154.52, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥90.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥90.23 to ¥222.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) come from?
Earnings per share at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd grew +22.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The market capitalisation of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 119B CNY (≈ $17.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 6.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Earnings per share at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd are ¥3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The dividend yield of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 5.4% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The net margin of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 33.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 25.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
The operating margin of Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is 40.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Revenue at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd is growing −37.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568)?
Earnings per share at Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd are growing −57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd (000568) hold?
Luzhou Lao Jiao Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 27.3B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026