Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock ¥24.22, price ¥38.49, that is 37.1% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥36.30 – ¥189.08 · fair‑value band ¥19.48 – ¥25.55 · the ¥38.49 price screens above the ¥24.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of Chinese liquor.
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It offers liquor and wine, including dream blue, sujiu, sky blue, zhenbaofang, ocean blue, yanghe daqu, shuanggou daqu, guijiu, and sidus wine under the Yanghe, Shuang Gou, Noble Wine, and Pear Blossom Village brands.
The company was formerly known as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. in June 2024. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Suqian, China.
Stock analysis
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) currently trades at ¥38.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥24.22, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥71.54 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥38.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥10.60, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥19.48 (bear) to ¥25.55 (bull), the price of ¥38.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd reported revenue of 19.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 25.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 58.0B CNY (≈ $8.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 962.3 · P/S ratio 4.48 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −37%, 002304 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥19.48Fair Value ¥24.22Bull¥25.55
Price ¥38.49 · Downside -37.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.7% vs −8.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 17%
AI conclusion: High gross margins stand against weak return on equity and negative cash flow with poor cash conversion in an otherwise thin data set.
Main risk: Persistent softer consumer spending in the baijiu sector would hit volumes and keep pressure on pricing as well as margins.
The baijiu sector continues its deep adjustment as distributors clear excess inventory built up in prior years. Yanghe has upgraded key lines such as Dream Blue M9 and worked to stabilize pricing and channel health, but recent quarterly revenue missed expectations. Will these measures lift volumes ahead of a broader recovery, or will softer consumer spending keep margins under pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 89 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002304
Frequently asked questions
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥24.22 versus a price of ¥38.49, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002304?
Our model-based fair value for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is ¥24.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥38.49.
What is the quality score of 002304?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥24.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥19.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥24.22, about 37% lower versus a price of ¥38.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥19.48, optimistic scenario ¥25.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd it is ¥24.22 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥38.49. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 002304 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥38.49, fair value ¥24.22, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002304?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥38.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥24.22). For Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd the two are ¥14.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd worth?
The market values Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd at about 58.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥38.49; our models calculate a fair value of ¥24.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002304?
Our models span a range for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥19.48, base ¥24.22, optimistic ¥25.55 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥38.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 002304?
The PEG ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 1.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002304 from its 52-week high?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd trades at ¥38.49, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥68.92 and 6% above the low of ¥36.30 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥24.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥38.49, calculated fair value ¥24.22 (−37%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002304 calculated?
We run Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥24.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥38.49. Our model-based fair value is ¥24.22, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥25.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) come from?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd grew +6.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The market capitalisation of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 58.0B CNY (≈ $8.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 962.3 (· median at FY-end 24.2 (10 FY)). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 4.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd are ¥0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 962.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The dividend yield of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The net margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
The operating margin of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is −66.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Revenue at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is growing −61.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304)?
Earnings per share at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd are growing −78.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) generate?
The free cash flow of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd is −1.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd (002304) hold?
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 21.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026