MIXUE Group (2097) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MIXUE Group stock HK$439, price HK$182, upside +141.4%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
The stock costs 59% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value HK$438.93 · Strongly undervalued
Quality 70/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 3y +34.0 %/yr in CNY)
Solidly profitable · 16.2% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(9/12)
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 40% above the price (HK$255.21).
Wide moat78/100 · thin data
Some data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Modest revenue growth and profit pressure from higher costs plus weak spending🚩Rivals and delivery subsidies squeeze margins🚩Overseas regulatory and cost hurdles slow expansion
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range HK$157.90 – HK$615.50 · fair‑value band HK$255.21 – HK$730.05 · the HK$181.80 price screens below the HK$438.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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MIXUE Group operates as a drinks company in Chinese mainland. The company offers freshly made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, coffee and fresh beer under MIXUE, Lucky Cup, and FULU brand names. It also provides syrups, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grains, and condiments.
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In addition, the company engages in the operation of sales of goods and equipment to franchisees, as well as provision of franchise and related services. MIXUE Group was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
MIXUE Group (2097) currently trades at HK$181.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$438.93, implying the stock looks roughly 59% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$762.27 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$181.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$47.43, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$255.21 (bear) to HK$730.05 (bull), the price of HK$181.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MIXUE Group reported revenue of 32.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was 5.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +31.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$68.4B (≈ $8.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 1.76 · Net margin 17.5% · Return on equity 22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 18.8% · Revenue (TTM) 33.9B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 141%, 2097 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$255.21Fair Value HK$438.93BullHK$730.05
Price HK$181.80 · Upside +141.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+33.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 22%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.3% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Solid financial returns stand as the main strength, while minimal qualitative moat signals limit the depth of any durability assessment.
Main risk: Intensifying competition from named rivals such as Guming and Chagee together with the phase-out of third-party delivery platform subsidies could reduce same-store sales and compress franchisee take rates.
Bull case: By further strengthening its integrated supply chain and adapting product formats to local tastes Mixue could raise store productivity at home and achieve profitable scale in overseas markets despite higher costs.
Bear case: If competition from rivals and delivery-platform changes persist while overseas regulatory and cost barriers remain the company could face prolonged margin pressure and limited international growth.
Mixue keeps broadening its product range with fresh formats and strengthens its supply chain even as it trims underperforming stores in select markets. Recent half-year results delivered only modest revenue growth alongside profit pressure from rising input costs and weaker consumer spending in China. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the upcoming product upgrades and resumed overseas momentum in 2027 more than offset the margin squeeze from higher costs and mix shifts?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+141.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MIXUE Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2097
Frequently asked questions
Is MIXUE Group (2097) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$438.93 versus a price of HK$181.80, about +141% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2097?
Our model-based fair value for MIXUE Group is HK$438.93 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$181.80.
What is the quality score of 2097?
MIXUE Group has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MIXUE Group (2097)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$438.93 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$255.21, optimistic scenario HK$730.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MIXUE Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$438.93, about +141% upside versus a price of HK$181.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$255.21, optimistic scenario HK$730.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MIXUE Group (2097)?
MIXUE Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into MIXUE Group (2097)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MIXUE Group would have to grow free cash flow by -6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +33.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2097 use?
Our models discount MIXUE Group at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MIXUE Group that is -6.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MIXUE Group (2097) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at MIXUE Group grew +33.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -6.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MIXUE Group (2097) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MIXUE Group (-6.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.19 %: that much free cash flow MIXUE Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MIXUE Group (2097)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MIXUE Group it is HK$438.93 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of HK$181.80. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is MIXUE Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 2097 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$181.80, fair value HK$438.93, a gap of about +141% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2097?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$181.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$438.93). For MIXUE Group the two are HK$257.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MIXUE Group worth?
The market values MIXUE Group at about HK$68.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is HK$181.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$438.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2097?
Our models span a range for MIXUE Group: cautious scenario HK$255.21, base HK$438.93, optimistic HK$730.05 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price HK$181.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2097?
MIXUE Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$438.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of MIXUE Group (2097)?
Balance-sheet figures for MIXUE Group (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 22.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2097 from its 52-week high?
MIXUE Group trades at HK$181.80, about 59% below its 52-week high of HK$446.60 and 15% above the low of HK$157.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$438.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MIXUE Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MIXUE Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price HK$181.80, calculated fair value HK$438.93 (+141%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2097 calculated?
We run MIXUE Group through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$438.93 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. MIXUE Group currently trades 59% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$181.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$438.93, about +141% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MIXUE Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$255.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$255.21 to HK$730.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of MIXUE Group
How large is the market capitalisation of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The market capitalisation of MIXUE Group is HK$68.4B (≈ $8.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MIXUE Group is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The net margin of MIXUE Group is 17.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MIXUE Group is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MIXUE Group (2097)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MIXUE Group is 28.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MIXUE Group (2097)?
The operating margin of MIXUE Group is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MIXUE Group (2097)?
Revenue at MIXUE Group is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MIXUE Group (2097)?
Earnings per share at MIXUE Group are growing −16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does MIXUE Group (2097) hold?
MIXUE Group holds more cash than debt, 8.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026