MIXUE Group (2097) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$83.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from HK$325.30 to HK$339.26 (+4.3%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price +14.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 44% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$260.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$260.07 to HK$921.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (17 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range HK$204.40 – HK$615.50 · fair‑value band HK$260.07 – HK$921.01 · the HK$235.00 price screens below the HK$339.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
MIXUE Group (2097) currently trades at HK$235.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$339.26, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MIXUE Group generated revenue of HK$33.6B at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 51.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$260.07 (bear case) to HK$921.01 (bull case); at HK$235.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 44%, 2097 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$659.69) versus Asset-Based (HK$43.58). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MIXUE Group operates as a drinks company in Chinese mainland. The company offers freshly made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, coffee and fresh beer under MIXUE, Lucky Cup, and FULU brand names. It also provides syrups, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grains, and condiments.
Full company description
MIXUE Group operates as a drinks company in Chinese mainland. The company offers freshly made fruit drinks, tea drinks, ice cream, coffee and fresh beer under MIXUE, Lucky Cup, and FULU brand names. It also provides syrups, milk, tea, coffee, fruit, grains, and condiments. In addition, the company engages in the operation of sales of goods and equipment to franchisees, as well as provision of franchise and related services. MIXUE Group was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MIXUE Group reported revenue of HK$32.7B in FY2025 versus HK$10.4B in FY2021, a compound +33.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding +31.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 92 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $87.05 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.02 | $106.91 | -23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $97.50 | $35.82 | -63% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$41.44 | HK$30.72 | -26% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €85.41 | -7% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $31.25 | $30.99 | -1% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $102.04 | $106.45 | +4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €57.90 | €52.82 | -9% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹495.70 | ₹187.49 | -62% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥124.43 | ¥107.57 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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