China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock ¥3.44, price ¥5.25, that is 34.4% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.67 – ¥8.29 · fair‑value band ¥3.44 – ¥3.64 · the ¥5.25 price screens above the ¥3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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China Southern Airlines Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides airline transport services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Aviation Operations and Other.
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The company offers air passenger; freight; mail; airline catering; hotel and travel; leasing; and internet services. It also provides online services, including seat and check-in, change/refund, flight status, pre-paid luggage, transfer accommodation, and meal booking.
The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China. China Southern Airlines Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Southern Air Holding Company Limited.
Stock analysis
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) currently trades at ¥5.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.44, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.47 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥5.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.4500, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥3.44 (bear) to ¥3.64 (bull), the price of ¥5.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 182B CNY in FY2025 versus 102B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was 857M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 95.1B CNY (≈ $14.3B) Large · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3300 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin −3.0% · Return on equity −8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.6% · Operating margin 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −34%, 600029 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥3.44Fair Value ¥3.44Bull¥3.64
Price ¥5.25 · Downside -34.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥5.04¥9.08¥15.9475
Residual Income¥1.40¥1.39¥1.4275
Growth DCF¥5.07¥8.98¥15.6273
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥5.04¥9.08¥15.9475
Owner Earnings¥4.06¥7.40¥13.0772
5Y Revenue Exit¥2.19¥3.39¥4.8770
5Y EBITDA Exit¥5.47¥9.88¥15.2572
5Y P/E Exit¥1.72¥2.45¥3.1970
10Y Revenue Exit¥3.06¥4.47¥6.3465
10Y EBITDA Exit¥5.28¥9.19¥14.8265
10Y P/E Exit¥2.79¥3.79¥4.9763
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.3200¥1.28¥1.7461
Lynch FV¥0.3200¥0.4500¥0.590058
PEG = 1.0¥0.3200¥0.4500¥0.590055
EPV¥0.7300¥0.9500¥1.1571
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.9700¥2.08¥3.4263
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.9700¥1.72¥2.1764
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥0.7400¥0.9900¥1.2461
P/S Multiple¥0.6000¥0.8000¥1.0055
P/B Multiple¥5.22¥6.96¥8.7053
EV/EBIT¥0.8300¥1.49¥2.1561
EV/EBITDA¥5.70¥7.99¥10.2765
EV/Revenue¥0.2600¥0.8700¥1.4747
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥0.7700¥1.04¥1.5552
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥5.07¥8.98¥15.6273
Rev-Margin DCF¥2.19¥3.44¥5.0070
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥1.40¥1.39¥1.4275
ROIC Compounder¥0.7300¥0.9500¥1.1570
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥0.5600¥0.8000¥1.0466
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−26.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.2% vs −19.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.3% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Network expansion via new African routes and cargo partnerships forms the main strength, while thin margins and high leverage mark the core weakness in commodity airline economics.
Main risk: High-speed rail could capture more short-haul passengers from China Southern on overlapping domestic routes and force lower fares or reduced capacity on those services.
Bull case: China Southern could shift more capacity to longer international and cargo routes where rail competition is absent and use its AI tools to optimise networks and cut costs.
Bear case: If high-speed rail expands further on key corridors, China Southern might lose significant domestic volume and face sustained margin pressure on its core short-haul network.
China Southern is expanding its network with new routes to Africa and cargo partnerships while its fleet grows. Yet first-half results showed losses widening sharply as jet fuel costs surged more than a third with little hedging in place and limited ability to raise fares. Will the push into international and cargo traffic deliver enough margin improvement to offset these structural cost pressures, or will fuel volatility continue to dominate results?
Compare China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−9.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.67× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.55× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow14.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA35.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.09× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)12· sector 76
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)32· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600029
Frequently asked questions
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.44 versus a price of ¥5.25, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600029?
Our model-based fair value for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is ¥3.44 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.25.
What is the quality score of 600029?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.44 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.44, optimistic scenario ¥3.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.44, about 34% lower versus a price of ¥5.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.44, optimistic scenario ¥3.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 192B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 6.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A would have to grow free cash flow by -9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600029 use?
Our models discount China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A that is -9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A grew +14.5 % a year. The price currently implies -9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (-9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.49 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A it is ¥3.44 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥5.25. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 600029 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.25, fair value ¥3.44, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600029?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.44). For China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥1.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A at about 95.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.25; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600029?
Our models span a range for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥3.44, base ¥3.44, optimistic ¥3.64 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥5.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 600029?
The PEG ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −8.7%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600029 from its 52-week high?
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥5.25, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥8.29 and 12% above the low of ¥4.67 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥5.25, calculated fair value ¥3.44 (−34%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600029 calculated?
We run China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥5.25. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.44, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥3.44 to ¥3.64), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The market capitalisation of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 95.1B CNY (≈ $14.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 0.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A are ¥−0.3300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The dividend yield of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 6.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The net margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is −3.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is −8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is −2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
The operating margin of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Revenue at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029)?
Earnings per share at China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A (600029) carry?
The net debt of China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Class A is 65.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026