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Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Advance Auto Parts Inc stock $32.06, price $45.50, that is 29.5% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

AA Advance Auto Parts Inc logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAP · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 48/100
Thin margins · 1.2% net margin (TTM)
2.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Neutral coverage
Some data
Fair value $32.06 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.2 %/yr in USD)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 27/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$214.85 $29.19 Fair Value $32.06 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.19 – $214.85 · fair‑value band $24.04 – $44.76 · the $45.50 price screens above the $32.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts.

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The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts.

It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades.

In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid.

Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers.

It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online.

The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Stock analysis

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) currently trades at $45.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.06, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $21.86 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $45.50 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.77, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $24.04 (bear) to $44.76 (bull), the price of $45.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Advance Auto Parts Inc reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B Mid · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) $2.03 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −30%, AAP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $24.04 Fair Value $32.06 Bull $44.76
Price $45.50 · Downside -29.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8833 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $23.76 $24.10 $25.17 76
EPV $16.39 $19.61 $22.38 74
ROIC Compounder $16.39 $19.61 $22.38 72
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.95 $9.97 $12.54 66
EPV $16.39 $19.61 $22.38 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.48 $11.89 $15.23 69
DDM Multi-Stage $8.48 $11.65 $15.10 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.02 $16.03 $20.03 63
P/S Multiple $9.29 $12.38 $15.48 58
P/B Multiple $59.50 $79.34 $99.17 55
EV/EBIT $1.20 $13.20 $25.19 57
EV/EBITDA $29.74 $51.24 $72.75 65
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $10.26 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.92 $13.29 $19.83 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $23.76 $24.10 $25.17 76
ROIC Compounder $16.39 $19.61 $22.38 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.71 $12.44 $16.17 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 34
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 98
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 31
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 21
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 30
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 75
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleKristen L SolerEVP, Chief HR Officer7,662 shares at $51.00$390,762Nov 13, 2025

Plus 31 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.7% vs −19.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AAP screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Margin gains via supply chain changes and merchandising represent the key strength, while negative free cash flow and low net margins highlight the core weakness in this competitive sector.
Main risk: Continued weakness in the do-it-yourself channel due to tighter consumer spending risks undermining overall profitability and cash generation.
Advance Auto Parts improved its margins in the second quarter through supply chain changes and merchandising, while comparable sales held flat overall. The professional channel posted low single-digit growth, yet the do-it-yourself business declined amid tighter consumer spending. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the logistics and pro-focused initiatives drive lasting profit gains, or will the channel split keep results uneven?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.6% · Below median
Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.55× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 22.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.26× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.32× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.72× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)22 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)22 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Magna International Inc MGA $61.86 $98.98 +60% vs AAP
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 349,000 KRW 534,994 KRW +53% vs AAP
Genuine Parts Company GPC $122.80 $115.96 −6% vs AAP
Knorr-Bremse AG KBX €94.45 €72.88 −23% vs AAP
AutoZone, Inc AZO $3,216 $2,468 −23% vs AAP
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥55.92 ¥40.74 −27% vs AAP
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥44.71 ¥32.24 −28% vs AAP
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹158.55 ₹96.06 −39% vs AAP
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $89.89 $48.66 −46% vs AAP
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹50,700 ₹25,168 −50% vs AAP

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Frequently asked questions

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.06 versus a price of $45.50, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAP?
Our model-based fair value for Advance Auto Parts Inc is $32.06 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $45.50.
What is the quality score of AAP?
Advance Auto Parts Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.06 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.04, optimistic scenario $44.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advance Auto Parts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.06, about 30% lower versus a price of $45.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.04, optimistic scenario $44.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Advance Auto Parts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Advance Auto Parts Inc pay a dividend?
Advance Auto Parts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Advance Auto Parts Inc pays a dividend of $1.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Jan 8, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 15.8% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 49.3%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advance Auto Parts Inc it is $32.06 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $45.50. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AAP trades above its calculated fair value: price $45.50, fair value $32.06, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($45.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.06). For Advance Auto Parts Inc the two are $13.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advance Auto Parts Inc worth?
The market values Advance Auto Parts Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $45.50; our models calculate a fair value of $32.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAP?
Our models span a range for Advance Auto Parts Inc: cautious scenario $24.04, base $32.06, optimistic $44.76 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $45.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAP?
Advance Auto Parts Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.06 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.1 (reported for FY2025: 62.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 17.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AAP?
The PEG ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advance Auto Parts Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAP from its 52-week high?
Advance Auto Parts Inc trades at $45.50, about 27% below its 52-week high of $62.36 and 20% above the low of $37.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advance Auto Parts Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $45.50, calculated fair value $32.06 (−30%), Quality Score 48/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAP calculated?
We run Advance Auto Parts Inc through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Advance Auto Parts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $45.50. Our model-based fair value is $32.06, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advance Auto Parts Inc right now?
Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($24.04 to $44.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Advance Auto Parts Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The market capitalisation of Advance Auto Parts Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 0.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Earnings per share at Advance Auto Parts Inc are $2.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The dividend yield of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 2.2% (payout 15.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 49.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The net margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The operating margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Revenue at Advance Auto Parts Inc is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Earnings per share at Advance Auto Parts Inc are growing +260% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) generate?
The free cash flow of Advance Auto Parts Inc is −$298M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) carry?
The net debt of Advance Auto Parts Inc is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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