Advance Auto Parts, Inc (AAP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.5B

Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($18.60 to $40.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.36 – $216.12 · fair‑value band $18.60 – $40.12 · the $57.80 price screens above the $26.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Advance Auto Parts, Inc (AAP) currently trades at $57.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.42, implying the stock looks roughly 54.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Advance Auto Parts, Inc generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $18.60 (bear case) to $40.12 (bull case); at $57.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -54%, AAP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($24.41) versus DCF Models ($9.56). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; …

Full company description

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid. Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Advance Auto Parts, Inc reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.9%/yr from FY2021.

AAP screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Advance Auto Parts Announces Date for Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Yahoo Finance · Jul 30, 2026
• Will Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? Yahoo Finance · Jul 23, 2026
• AAP’s Unusually Active $62.50 Call Isn’t a Covered Call. It’s a Bullish Bet on a Beaten-Down Stock. Yahoo Finance · Jul 16, 2026

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.