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Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Advance Auto Parts Inc $26.42, price $41.10, upside -35.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US00751Y1064

AA Advance Auto Parts Inc logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAP · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $26.42 · Strongly overvalued (−36%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·2.43% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 6 out of 100
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$216.12 $29.36 Fair Value $26.42 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.36 – $216.12 · fair‑value band $18.60 – $37.16 · the $41.10 price screens above the $26.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts.

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Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid. Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Stock analysis

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) currently trades at $41.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.42, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $37.61 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $41.10 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.98, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $18.60 (bear) to $37.16 (bull), the price of $41.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Advance Auto Parts Inc reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 34.8 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) $1.18 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −36%, AAP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $18.60 Fair Value $26.42 Bull $37.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1317 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $26.15 $37.61 $53.91 76
Residual Income $25.46 $24.45 $19.12 76
EPV $17.04 $20.49 $23.47 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $26.15 $37.61 $53.91 76
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.96 $9.98 $12.56 66
EPV $17.04 $20.49 $23.47 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.73 $12.39 $16.03 69
DDM Multi-Stage $8.73 $12.12 $15.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.03 $16.05 $20.06 63
P/S Multiple $9.30 $12.40 $15.50 58
P/B Multiple $9.30 $12.40 $15.50 55
EV/EBIT $31.24 $43.25 $55.26 66
EV/EBITDA $59.81 $81.34 $102.87 67
EV/Revenue $19.49 $29.90 $40.31 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.22 $24.41 $36.43 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $25.46 $24.45 $19.12 76
ROIC Compounder $17.04 $20.49 $23.47 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.72 $12.45 $16.19 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−34.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−37% vs −20%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

AAP screens 56% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −36% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.55× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.51× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)6 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)12 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)22 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)49 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Magna International Inc MGA $63.79 $68.17 +7%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹164.40 ₹96.97 −41%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.71 ¥28.28 −38%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹47,955 ₹25,325 −47%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,004 ₹407.35 −80%
Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co 002920 ¥84.71 ¥68.21 −19%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Advance Auto Parts Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAP

Frequently asked questions

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.42 versus a price of $41.10, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAP?
Our model-based fair value for Advance Auto Parts Inc is $26.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.10.
What is the quality score of AAP?
Advance Auto Parts Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.60, optimistic scenario $37.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advance Auto Parts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.42, about −36% upside versus a price of $41.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.60, optimistic scenario $37.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Advance Auto Parts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Advance Auto Parts Inc pay a dividend?
Advance Auto Parts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advance Auto Parts Inc it is $26.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $41.10. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AAP trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.10, fair value $26.42, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.42). For Advance Auto Parts Inc the two are $14.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advance Auto Parts Inc worth?
The market values Advance Auto Parts Inc at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $41.10; our models calculate a fair value of $26.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAP?
Our models span a range for Advance Auto Parts Inc: cautious scenario $18.60, base $26.42, optimistic $37.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $41.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAP?
Advance Auto Parts Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AAP?
The PEG ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advance Auto Parts Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAP from its 52-week high?
Advance Auto Parts Inc trades at $41.10, about 34% below its 52-week high of $62.73 and 8% above the low of $38.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advance Auto Parts Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $41.10, calculated fair value $26.42 (−36%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAP calculated?
We run Advance Auto Parts Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Advance Auto Parts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.10. Our model-based fair value is $26.42, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advance Auto Parts Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($18.60 to $37.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Advance Auto Parts Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The market capitalisation of Advance Auto Parts Inc is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Earnings per share at Advance Auto Parts Inc are $1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The dividend yield of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 2.4% (payout 84.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The net margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
The operating margin of Advance Auto Parts Inc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Revenue at Advance Auto Parts Inc is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)?
Earnings per share at Advance Auto Parts Inc are growing −2.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) generate?
The free cash flow of Advance Auto Parts Inc is −$298M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) carry?
The net debt of Advance Auto Parts Inc is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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