Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Advance Auto Parts Inc stock $32.06, price $45.50, that is 29.5% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Advance Auto Parts Inc
AAP · USOur calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.19 – $214.85 · fair‑value band $24.04 – $44.76 · the $45.50 price screens above the $32.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Company profile
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts.
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The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts.
It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades.
In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid.
Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers.
It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online.
The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) currently trades at $45.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.06, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $21.86 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $45.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.77, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.04 (bear) to $44.76 (bull), the price of $45.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Advance Auto Parts Inc reported revenue of $8.6B in FY2025 versus $11.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B Mid · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) $2.03 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −30%, AAP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 14 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
- SaleKristen L SolerEVP, Chief HR Officer7,662 shares at $51.00$390,762Nov 13, 2025
Plus 31 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
AAP screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →
Recent news
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) vs. ORLY and GPC: Can Its Operational Turnaround Unlock Significant Upside?
- Earnings Preview: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline
- O'Reilly Automotive, AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts Poised for Net Positive Impact From Inflation, BofA Says
- Is Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Looking Stretched On Earnings?
Compare Advance Auto Parts Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on assets by industry
- Fair value gap by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magna International Inc MGA | $61.86 | $98.98 | +60% | vs AAP |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 349,000 KRW | 534,994 KRW | +53% | vs AAP |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $122.80 | $115.96 | −6% | vs AAP |
| Knorr-Bremse AG KBX | €94.45 | €72.88 | −23% | vs AAP |
| AutoZone, Inc AZO | $3,216 | $2,468 | −23% | vs AAP |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥55.92 | ¥40.74 | −27% | vs AAP |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥44.71 | ¥32.24 | −28% | vs AAP |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹158.55 | ₹96.06 | −39% | vs AAP |
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY | $89.89 | $48.66 | −46% | vs AAP |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹50,700 | ₹25,168 | −50% | vs AAP |
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Key figures of Advance Auto Parts Inc
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