Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bains Mer Monaco stock €63.22, price €148, that is 57.1% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €55.17 – €154.00 · fair‑value band €34.38 – €103.06 · the €147.50 price screens above the €63.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Société Anonyme des Bains de Mer et du Cercle des Étrangers à Monaco operates in the gaming, hotels, and rental sectors in Monaco.
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It operates casinos; hotels; restaurants; lounge bars and nightclubs; wellness and leisure facilities; shows and concert halls; shopping centers; and meetings and events centers.
The company is also involved in the slot machines, table games, and other activities; and rental of residential properties, boutiques, and offices. In addition, it offers catering services. The company was incorporated in 1863 and is headquartered in Monaco.
Stock analysis
Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) currently trades at €147.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €63.22, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €90.97 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €147.50 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €10.76, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €34.38 (bear) to €103.06 (bull), the price of €147.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Bains Mer Monaco reported revenue of €862M in FY2026 versus €531M in FY2022, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was €113M in FY2026, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €3.6B Mid · P/E ratio 32.1 · P/S ratio 4.20 · EPS (TTM) €4.60 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −57%, BAIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€34.38Fair Value €63.22Bull€103.06
Price €147.50 · Downside -57.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Per share before 2015divided by the spin-off factor 1.0479
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.1% vs 23.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−31% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+71.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.0% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: High gross margins stand out as the main strength, yet low return on equity despite these margins points to unclear durable advantage and limits conclusions on business quality.
Main risk: Extended construction from late 2027 onward risks prolonged disruption to core hotel and casino operations, which would hit revenues from these activities.
SBM is advancing plans to add three floors of luxury residences atop Monte-Carlo Bay and fully rebuild the Thermes Marins into a larger complex with premium spa, apartments and retail. These follow record revenues but require years of construction from late 2027 onward in a market where land is scarce. Will the shift toward more stable rental income offset the extended disruption to core hotel and casino operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−57.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bains Mer Monaco Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAIN
Frequently asked questions
Is Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €63.22 versus a price of €147.50, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAIN?
Our model-based fair value for Bains Mer Monaco is €63.22 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €147.50.
What is the quality score of BAIN?
Bains Mer Monaco has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €63.22 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €34.38, optimistic scenario €103.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bains Mer Monaco stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €63.22, about 57% lower versus a price of €147.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €34.38, optimistic scenario €103.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Bains Mer Monaco reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €862M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Bains Mer Monaco pay a dividend?
Bains Mer Monaco currently shows a dividend yield of 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Bains Mer Monaco pays a dividend of €2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 43.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.16 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bains Mer Monaco would have to grow free cash flow by +71.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAIN use?
Our models discount Bains Mer Monaco at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bains Mer Monaco that is +71.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bains Mer Monaco grew +20.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +71.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bains Mer Monaco (+71.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.21 %: that much free cash flow Bains Mer Monaco produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bains Mer Monaco it is €63.22 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €147.50. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Bains Mer Monaco stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BAIN trades above its calculated fair value: price €147.50, fair value €63.22, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€147.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€63.22). For Bains Mer Monaco the two are €84.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bains Mer Monaco worth?
The market values Bains Mer Monaco at about €3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €147.50; our models calculate a fair value of €63.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAIN?
Our models span a range for Bains Mer Monaco: cautious scenario €34.38, base €63.22, optimistic €103.06 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €147.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAIN?
Bains Mer Monaco trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.1 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €63.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings: 24.3. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bains Mer Monaco (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAIN from its 52-week high?
Bains Mer Monaco trades at €147.50, about 4% below its 52-week high of €154.00 and 49% above the low of €99.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €63.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bains Mer Monaco?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bains Mer Monaco stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €147.50, calculated fair value €63.22 (−57%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAIN calculated?
We run Bains Mer Monaco through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €63.22 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Bains Mer Monaco itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €147.50. Our model-based fair value is €63.22, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bains Mer Monaco right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€103.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€34.38 to €103.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Bains Mer Monaco
How large is the market capitalisation of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The market capitalisation of Bains Mer Monaco is €3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bains Mer Monaco is 4.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Earnings per share at Bains Mer Monaco are €4.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The dividend yield of Bains Mer Monaco is 1.4% (payout 43.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The net margin of Bains Mer Monaco is 13.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bains Mer Monaco is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bains Mer Monaco is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
The operating margin of Bains Mer Monaco is −5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Revenue at Bains Mer Monaco is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN)?
Earnings per share at Bains Mer Monaco are growing +6.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bains Mer Monaco (BAIN) hold?
Bains Mer Monaco holds more cash than debt, €107M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026