BAIN Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · FR · Market cap €3.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €66.09 to €66.71 (+0.9%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€99.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €55.94 – €140.00 · fair‑value band €56.37 – €99.69 · the €138.00 price screens above the €66.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
BAIN (BAIN) currently trades at €138.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €66.71, implying the stock looks roughly 51.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BAIN generated revenue of €815M at a net margin of 14.4%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €107M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €56.37 (bear case) to €99.69 (bull case); at €138.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -52%, BAIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€89.82) versus Growth DCF (€9.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Société Anonyme des Bains de Mer et du Cercle des Étrangers à Monaco operates in the gaming, hotels, and rental sectors in Monaco. It operates casinos; hotels; restaurants; lounge bars and nightclubs; wellness and leisure facilities; shows and concert halls; shopping centers; and meetings and events centers.
Full company description
Société Anonyme des Bains de Mer et du Cercle des Étrangers à Monaco operates in the gaming, hotels, and rental sectors in Monaco. It operates casinos; hotels; restaurants; lounge bars and nightclubs; wellness and leisure facilities; shows and concert halls; shopping centers; and meetings and events centers. The company is also involved in the slot machines, table games, and other activities; and rental of residential properties, boutiques, and offices. In addition, it offers catering services. The company was incorporated in 1863 and is headquartered in Monaco.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
BAIN reported revenue of €862M in FY2026 versus €531M in FY2022, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was €113M in FY2026, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2022.
BAIN screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM | $46.13 | $13.70 | -70% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6200 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +11% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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