BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc stock $82.28, price $111, that is 25.8% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $50.29 – $119.94 · fair‑value band $47.88 – $108.22 · the $110.90 price screens above the $82.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates membership warehouse clubs on the eastern half of the United States. The company offers groceries, fresh food, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services.
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It sells its products through its clubs; the BJs.com website; and its mobile app. The company was formerly known as Beacon Holding Inc. and changed its name to BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. in February 2018.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) currently trades at $110.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $82.28, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $83.25 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $110.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $26.83, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.88 (bear) to $108.22 (bull), the price of $110.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc reported revenue of $21.5B in FY2026 versus $16.7B in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $578M in FY2026, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.6B Large · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $4.57 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 27.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −26%, BJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$47.88Fair Value $82.28Bull$108.22
Price $110.90 · Downside -25.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.49 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleScott SchmadekeEVP, Chief Operations Officer16,500 shares at $92.17$1.5MJun 10, 2026
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 32.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.1% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The membership model's long record of fee growth and high renewal rates supplies reliable cash flow, while thin margins and limited differentiation constrain business strength.
Main risk: Costco and Sam's Club with superior scale plus Amazon Prime could draw customers away or force lower prices and thinner margins on BJ's regional warehouse model.
Bull case: BJ's could leverage its East Coast density and AI-driven omnichannel tools to deepen member loyalty and expand efficiently into adjacent markets without eroding renewal rates.
Bear case: If larger peers and digital alternatives capture more share, BJ's slower scale could lead to persistent margin pressure and slower club growth in a maturing warehouse segment.
BJ's membership model has delivered 25 straight years of fee growth on the back of a steady 90 percent tenured renewal rate. That base provides reliable cash flow even while the company steps up new-club openings across fresh markets. Our models still see the shares as overvalued. Will the renewal discipline keep margins intact through faster expansion, or will ramp-up costs erode returns?
Compare BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.7% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.3× · Pricier than median
P/B6.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.64× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow44.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Pricier than median
PEG2.08× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)79· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 84
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BJ
Frequently asked questions
Is BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $82.28 versus a price of $110.90, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BJ?
Our model-based fair value for BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is $82.28 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $110.90.
What is the quality score of BJ?
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $82.28 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.88, optimistic scenario $108.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $82.28, about 26% lower versus a price of $110.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $47.88, optimistic scenario $108.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BJ use?
Our models discount BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc that is +19.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies +19.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (+19.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.26 %: that much free cash flow BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc it is $82.28 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $110.90. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BJ trades above its calculated fair value: price $110.90, fair value $82.28, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($110.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($82.28). For BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc the two are $28.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc worth?
The market values BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc at about $14.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $110.90; our models calculate a fair value of $82.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BJ?
Our models span a range for BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $47.88, base $82.28, optimistic $108.22 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $110.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BJ?
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $82.28 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2020 ex one-offs: 19.6. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 6.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BJ?
The PEG ratio of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 2.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 27.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BJ from its 52-week high?
BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc trades at $110.90, at its 52-week high of $110.90 and 32% above the low of $83.82 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $82.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $110.90, calculated fair value $82.28 (−26%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BJ calculated?
We run BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $82.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $110.90. Our model-based fair value is $82.28, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($47.88 to $108.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) come from?
Earnings per share at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc grew +38.2 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin +10.9 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The market capitalisation of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is $14.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Earnings per share at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc are $4.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The net margin of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
The operating margin of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Revenue at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is growing +15.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)?
Earnings per share at BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc are growing +19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ) carry?
The net debt of BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc is $2.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026