Dollar Tree, Inc (DLTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $23.2B
Dollar Tree, Inc
DLTR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $121.05 to $125.92 (+4.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +5.7% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($87.11 to $162.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.21 – $174.08 · fair‑value band $87.11 – $162.48 · the $129.68 price screens above the $125.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Dollar Tree, Inc (DLTR) currently trades at $129.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.92, implying the stock looks roughly 2.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Dollar Tree, Inc generated revenue of $19.7B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.0%. Net debt stands at $3.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $87.11 (bear case) to $162.48 (bull case); at $129.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -3%, DLTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($136.16) versus Asset-Based ($13.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Dollar Tree, Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2026 versus $26.3B in FY2022, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's What to Expect From Dollar Tree's Next Earnings Report
- Kroger, Dollar Tree, and Grocery Outlet Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) Plans 75 Store Closures And 400 Openings In 2026
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $916.25 | $383.51 | -58% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $139.60 | $118.22 | -15% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $90.24 | $80.99 | -10% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $189.05 | $98.60 | -48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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