Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg $83.06, price $82.61, upside +0.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.09 – $140.80 · fair‑value band $51.89 – $107.97 · the $82.61 price screens below the $83.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States.
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States. The company offers health and beauty aids, food, candy, beverages, pet food and treats, laundry related products, and cleaning supplies; housewares and kitchen items, home decor products, furniture, household essential items, and home maintenance and utility items; patio furniture, air conditioners, fans, space heaters, toys, lawn and garden related products, outdoor items, holiday decor, gifts, and decorations products; books, stationery items, small electronic devices and accessories, clothing, sporting goods, pet products, automotive products, luggage and other general merchandise. It sells its products under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, American Way brands. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) currently trades at $82.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $83.06, implying the stock looks roughly 0.5% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $84.24 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $82.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.93, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $51.89 (bear) to $107.97 (bull), the price of $82.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2026 versus $1.8B in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $241M in FY2026, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) $4.04 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% · Operating margin 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 1%, OLLI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $51.89Fair Value $83.06Bull $107.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 20%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 25 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Below median
Return on assets7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $83.06 versus a price of $82.61, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OLLI?
Our model-based fair value for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is $83.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $82.61.
What is the quality score of OLLI?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $83.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.89, optimistic scenario $107.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $83.06, about +1% upside versus a price of $82.61 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $51.89, optimistic scenario $107.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLLI use?
Our models discount Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.81 %: that much free cash flow Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg it is $83.06 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $82.61. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OLLI trades below its calculated fair value: price $82.61, fair value $83.06, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OLLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($82.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($83.06). For Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg the two are $0.4500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg worth?
The market values Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $82.61; our models calculate a fair value of $83.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLLI?
Our models span a range for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg: cautious scenario $51.89, base $83.06, optimistic $107.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $82.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OLLI?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $83.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.7, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of OLLI?
The PEG ratio of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 2.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OLLI from its 52-week high?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg trades at $82.61, about 39% below its 52-week high of $134.68 and 34% above the low of $61.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $83.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $82.61, calculated fair value $83.06 (+1%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OLLI calculated?
We run Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $83.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $82.61. Our model-based fair value is $83.06, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($51.89 to $107.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) come from?
Earnings per share at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg grew +18.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.4 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg
How large is the market capitalisation of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The market capitalisation of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 1.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Earnings per share at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg are $4.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The net margin of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
The operating margin of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Revenue at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)?
Earnings per share at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI) carry?
The net debt of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg is $426M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026