Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.9B
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
OLLI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $87.56 to $68.02 (−22.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +31.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($50.74 to $107.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.09 – $140.80 · fair‑value band $50.74 – $107.97 · the $81.64 price screens above the $68.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) currently trades at $81.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $68.02, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $426M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $50.74 (bear case) to $107.97 (bull case); at $81.64, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -17%, OLLI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($83.06) versus Asset-Based ($20.93). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States.
Full company description
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States. The company offers health and beauty aids, food, candy, beverages, pet food and treats, laundry related products, and cleaning supplies; housewares and kitchen items, home decor products, furniture, household essential items, and home maintenance and utility items; patio furniture, air conditioners, fans, space heaters, toys, lawn and garden related products, outdoor items, holiday decor, gifts, and decorations products; books, stationery items, small electronic devices and accessories, clothing, sporting goods, pet products, automotive products, luggage and other general merchandise. It sells its products under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, American Way brands. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2026 versus $1.8B in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $241M in FY2026, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2022.
OLLI screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here’s Why Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Traded Lower in Q2
- Ollies Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut After Analyst Target Trims
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $916.25 | $383.51 | -58% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $139.60 | $118.22 | -15% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $124.91 | $125.92 | +1% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $90.24 | $80.99 | -10% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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