Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Carpenter Technology Corporation stock $140, price $279, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.37 – $618.66 · fair‑value band $87.41 – $208.24 · the $278.88 price screens above the $140.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Carpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products.
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The company offers specialty alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels, as well as metal powders and parts. It serves the aerospace, defense, medical, transportation, energy, industrial, and consumer markets.
The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) currently trades at $278.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $140.03, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $163.97 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $278.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $68.23, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $87.41 (bear) to $208.24 (bull), the price of $278.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Carpenter Technology Corporation reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2026 versus $1.8B in FY2022, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $530M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $14.1B Large · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) $11.34 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 17.9% · Return on equity 27.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −50%, CRS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$87.41Fair Value $140.03Bull$208.24
Price $278.88 · Downside -49.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $55.7M and none bought.
SaleSteven E KarolDirector3× since Feb 19, 2026: 11,775 shares, avg. $424.80$5.0MSep 4, 2026
SaleTony R TheneChairman, President and CEO, Director109,283 shares at $483.84$52.9MAug 25, 2026
SaleRamin YounessiDirector2× since Nov 21, 2025: 1,738 shares, avg. $354.05$615,347Aug 21, 2026
SaleAnastasios John HartDirector2× since May 4, 2026: 1,000 shares, avg. $433.37$433,365May 28, 2026
SaleMarshall D AkinsVP and Chief Comm Officer11,815 shares at $441.36$5.2MMay 5, 2026
SaleJames D DeeSVP, Gen Counsel & Sec15,800 shares at $391.78$6.2MFeb 24, 2026
SaleBrian J MalloyPresident and COO75,458 shares at $304.83$23.0MDec 11, 2025
SaleElizabeth A SocciVP, Contr & Ch Acctg Officer3,900 shares at $321.25$1.3MNov 26, 2025
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+64.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+64.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 23%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.3% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record earnings from specialty alloys in aerospace and defense show operational strength while brownfield expansion stays on track, yet thin evidence leaves no durable moat and financials alone cannot confirm lasting quality.
Main risk: Heavy concentration in aerospace and defense that accounts for most revenue could expose the company to demand drops during downturns, production disruptions at aircraft makers or defense funding delays that reduce orders and pressure margins.
Bull case: The company could leverage its position among only a few qualified high-end nickel alloy producers and long-term agreements to secure stable volumes even if aerospace cycles fluctuate or composites gain share in some applications.
Bear case: Prolonged aerospace production issues, repeated defense funding delays or faster adoption of composites could sharply cut revenue and margins in the main business, leaving limited offsetting growth from other segments.
Carpenter Technology just reported record fiscal 2026 earnings from its specialty alloys business serving aerospace and defense. Management highlighted that the brownfield capacity expansion remains on schedule and on budget to support further demand. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the multi-year growth journey deliver enough to justify current valuations or will execution and cost pressures limit upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.41× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow38.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.59× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 68
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $140.03 versus a price of $278.88, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRS?
Our model-based fair value for Carpenter Technology Corporation is $140.03 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $278.88.
What is the quality score of CRS?
Carpenter Technology Corporation has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $140.03 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $87.41, optimistic scenario $208.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carpenter Technology Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $140.03, about 50% lower versus a price of $278.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $87.41, optimistic scenario $208.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Carpenter Technology Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Carpenter Technology Corporation pay a dividend?
Carpenter Technology Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carpenter Technology Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +23.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRS use?
Our models discount Carpenter Technology Corporation at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carpenter Technology Corporation that is +23.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carpenter Technology Corporation grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carpenter Technology Corporation (+23.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.58 %: that much free cash flow Carpenter Technology Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carpenter Technology Corporation it is $140.03 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $278.88. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carpenter Technology Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, CRS trades above its calculated fair value: price $278.88, fair value $140.03, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($278.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($140.03). For Carpenter Technology Corporation the two are $138.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carpenter Technology Corporation worth?
The market values Carpenter Technology Corporation at about $14.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $278.88; our models calculate a fair value of $140.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRS?
Our models span a range for Carpenter Technology Corporation: cautious scenario $87.41, base $140.03, optimistic $208.24 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $278.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CRS?
Carpenter Technology Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $140.03 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 31.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 6.3, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CRS?
The PEG ratio of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carpenter Technology Corporation (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 27.8%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRS from its 52-week high?
Carpenter Technology Corporation trades at $278.88, about 55% below its 52-week high of $618.66 and at the low of $278.88 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $140.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carpenter Technology Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, China International Marine Containers (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carpenter Technology Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $278.88, calculated fair value $140.03 (−50%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRS calculated?
We run Carpenter Technology Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $140.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Carpenter Technology Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $278.88. Our model-based fair value is $140.03, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carpenter Technology Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($208.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($87.41 to $208.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) come from?
Earnings per share at Carpenter Technology Corporation grew +27.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin +15.4 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Carpenter Technology Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The market capitalisation of Carpenter Technology Corporation is $14.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 4.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Earnings per share at Carpenter Technology Corporation are $11.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The dividend yield of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 0.3% (payout 7.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The net margin of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 17.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 27.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
The operating margin of Carpenter Technology Corporation is 24.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Revenue at Carpenter Technology Corporation is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)?
Earnings per share at Carpenter Technology Corporation are growing +33.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) carry?
The net debt of Carpenter Technology Corporation is $297M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026