Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock $176, price $89.11, upside +97.9%, quality 85 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Meets all rules:undervalued,strong quality, uptrend
The stock costs 49% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $176.31 · Strongly undervalued (49%)
Quality 85/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 18.4% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(11/14)
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 22% above the price ($108.61).
Wide moat79/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Some data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Guidance cut on softer domestic trends and logistics hiccups🚩Tariffs on Asian manufacturing🚩Rivals like On Holding and Nike🚩Sheepskin supplier concentration
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.80 – $223.11 · fair‑value band $108.61 – $229.20 · the $89.11 price screens below the $176.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally.
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The company offers footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name.
It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name.
The company sells its products through domestic and international retailers, international distributors, and directly to its consumers through its direct-to-consumer business, which includes e-commerce websites and retail stores.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Stock analysis
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) currently trades at $89.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $176.31, implying the stock looks roughly 49% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $179.71 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $89.11 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $68.55, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $108.61 (bear) to $229.20 (bull), the price of $89.11 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2026 versus $3.2B in FY2022, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2026, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $13.0B Large · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 2.35 · EPS (TTM) $7.55 · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 42.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.1% · Operating margin 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at 98%, DECK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$108.61Fair Value $176.31Bull$229.20
Price $89.11 · Upside +97.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleLauri M ShanahanDirector4,682 shares at $114.84$537,681Feb 13, 2026
SaleRobin Spring-GreenPresident, Hoka347 shares at $113.78$39,482Feb 13, 2026
SaleAnne SpangenbergPresident, Fashion Lifestyle4,063 shares at $116.02$471,389Feb 13, 2026
Plus 39 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.6% vs 27.5%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Deckers maintains solid margins through strict full-price discipline and international wholesale strength, yet its main weakness lies in softer domestic direct-to-consumer trends that limit revenue visibility.
Main risk: Tariffs on imports from Vietnam and other Asian countries where most products are made could raise costs or force price increases that reduce demand and squeeze margins for HOKA and UGG footwear.
Bull case: The company could mitigate tariff and supply risks by further diversifying manufacturing locations and raw material sources while using its innovation focus and DTC channels to maintain premium positioning against rivals.
Bear case: Persistent tariffs combined with aggressive competition from On Holding and supply issues for sheepskin could slow top-line growth, compress margins on HOKA and UGG, and limit the ability to offset weaker consumer demand.
Deckers maintains high gross margins by refusing to chase promotional volume in a tougher US market, even as international sales provide a clear offset. The recent guidance cut highlights softer domestic direct-to-consumer trends and logistics hiccups, yet earnings expectations rose thanks to tariff refunds and disciplined cost control. Will the brands' full-price discipline and global wholesale strength deliver more earnings growth than the tempered revenue outlook suggests?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+97.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets27.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
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Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $176.31 versus a price of $89.11, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DECK?
Our model-based fair value for Deckers Outdoor Corporation is $176.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $89.11.
What is the quality score of DECK?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $176.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $108.61, optimistic scenario $229.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $176.31, about +98% upside versus a price of $89.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $108.61, optimistic scenario $229.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deckers Outdoor Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DECK use?
Our models discount Deckers Outdoor Corporation at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deckers Outdoor Corporation that is -3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deckers Outdoor Corporation grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies -3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deckers Outdoor Corporation (-3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.45 %: that much free cash flow Deckers Outdoor Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deckers Outdoor Corporation it is $176.31 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $89.11. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DECK trades below its calculated fair value: price $89.11, fair value $176.31, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DECK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($89.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($176.31). For Deckers Outdoor Corporation the two are $87.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deckers Outdoor Corporation worth?
The market values Deckers Outdoor Corporation at about $13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $89.11; our models calculate a fair value of $176.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DECK?
Our models span a range for Deckers Outdoor Corporation: cautious scenario $108.61, base $176.31, optimistic $229.20 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $89.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DECK?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $176.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 5.2, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of DECK?
The PEG ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 42.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DECK from its 52-week high?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at $89.11, about 26% below its 52-week high of $120.94 and 15% above the low of $77.51 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $176.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deckers Outdoor Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $89.11, calculated fair value $176.31 (+98%), Quality Score 85/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DECK calculated?
We run Deckers Outdoor Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $176.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Deckers Outdoor Corporation currently trades 49% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $89.11. Our model-based fair value is $176.31, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deckers Outdoor Corporation right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (85/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($108.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($108.61 to $229.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) come from?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation grew +25.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.3 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Deckers Outdoor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The market capitalisation of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is $13.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 2.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation are $7.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The net margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 18.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 29.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
The operating margin of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Revenue at Deckers Outdoor Corporation is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)?
Earnings per share at Deckers Outdoor Corporation are growing +1.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) hold?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation holds more cash than debt, $1.5B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026