adidas AG (ADS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €32.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −8.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€61.87 to €183.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €90.72 – €318.75 · fair‑value band €61.87 – €183.93 · the €164.05 price screens above the €115.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
adidas AG (ADS) currently trades at €164.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €115.36, implying the stock looks roughly 29.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, adidas AG generated revenue of €25.3B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.9%. Net debt stands at €3.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €61.87 (bear case) to €183.93 (bull case); at €164.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -30%, ADS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€142.34) versus Asset-Based (€21.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
adidas AG, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, produces, and markets a range of athletic and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Greater China, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, North America, and internationally.
Full company description
adidas AG, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, produces, and markets a range of athletic and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Greater China, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, North America, and internationally. The company offers footwear and apparel, as well as accessories and gear, including bags, balls, sunglasses, and fitness equipment under the adidas brand; golf footwear and apparel under the adidas Golf brand; and outdoor footwear under the Five Ten brand. It sells its products through its own retail stores, mono-branded franchise stores, shop-in-shops, joint ventures with retail partners, and co-branded stores, as well as through its wholesale and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as adidas-Salomon AG and changed its name to adidas AG in June 2006. adidas AG was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Herzogenaurach, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
adidas AG reported revenue of €24.8B in FY2025 versus €21.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.3B in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
ADS screens 30% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Adidas (XTRA:ADS) Names New CFO After Record Q2 2026 Sales
- Adidas Q2 revenue climbs 14% on FIFA World Cup demand
- Adidas Stock Plunges Record 19% as World Cup Boost Disappoints
- Why Adidas shares slumped following World Cup bump
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| On Holding ONON | $38.20 | $17.64 | -54% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.11 | ¥13.03 | +8% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $44.36 | $44.14 | -0% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €29.31 | €10.57 | -64% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$14.18 | HK$4.04 | -72% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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