Dollar General Corporation (DG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dollar General Corporation stock $118, price $138, that is 14.3% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $65.98 – $240.89 · fair‑value band $82.75 – $153.67 · the $138.00 price screens above the $118.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States.
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It offers consumable products, including paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food, such as cereals, pasta, canned soups, canned meats, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables, including milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, wine, and produce; candy, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; over-the-counter medicines and personal care products including soap, body wash, shampoo, cosmetics, dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products.
The company also provides seasonal products comprising holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive, and home office supplies; home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, and bed and bath soft goods; and apparel products for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
The company was formerly known as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc. and changed its name to Dollar General Corporation in 1968. Dollar General Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Dollar General Corporation (DG) currently trades at $138.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.21, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $187.99 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $138.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $43.00, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $82.75 (bear) to $153.67 (bull), the price of $138.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dollar General Corporation reported revenue of $42.7B in FY2026 versus $34.2B in FY2022, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2026, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $30.5B Large · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $7.75 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 19.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −14%, DG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$82.75Fair Value $118.21Bull$153.67
Price $138.00 · Downside -14.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $732,559 and none bought.
SaleKathleen A ReardonEVP & Chief People Officer2× since Dec 8, 2025: 9,973 shares, avg. $129.41$1.3MSep 3, 2026
SaleBryan D WheelerEVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc9,776 shares at $135.32$1.3MDec 19, 2025
SaleRhonda TaylorEVP & General Counsel7,500 shares at $134.89$1.0MDec 16, 2025
SaleRoderick J WestEVP, Global Supply Chain2,282 shares at $133.35$304,305Dec 16, 2025
SaleAnita C ElliottSVP & Chief Accounting Officer2,516 shares at $132.52$333,420Dec 12, 2025
SaleCarman R WenkoffEVP & Chief Information Ofc19,166 shares at $132.01$2.5MDec 11, 2025
SaleTracey N HerrmannEVP, Store Operations17,433 shares at $126.83$2.2MDec 11, 2025
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.6% vs 5.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.2% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited moat with weak innovation and human capital factors offsets moderate operational strengths shown in recent traffic gains from higher-income households.
Main risk: The FTC and 20 states allege years of overcharging customers at checkout versus shelf prices, which could force higher compliance costs, settlements or eroded trust among its low-income base and reduce traffic.
Bull case: Dollar General could leverage its dense rural store network and AI-driven inventory tools to maintain convenience advantages while tightening pricing controls to resolve regulatory issues and retain expanding customer traffic.
Bear case: Persistent pricing litigation and compliance burdens combined with Aldi and Walmart capturing more grocery spend could erode the low-cost model, shrink margins and limit the ability to serve its traditional base profitably.
Dollar General saw same-store sales rise 2.5 percent in its latest quarter, driven entirely by higher customer traffic rather than bigger baskets. Growth came disproportionately from higher-income households turning to value options. This broadens the customer mix beyond its traditional rural and low-income base. Does the added traffic strengthen the model for the long run, or will it require assortment shifts that erode the low-cost edge?
Compare Dollar General Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.7% · Below median
Return on assets4.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.70× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.7× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dollar General Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DG
Frequently asked questions
Is Dollar General Corporation (DG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $118.21 versus a price of $138.00, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DG?
Our model-based fair value for Dollar General Corporation is $118.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $138.00.
What is the quality score of DG?
Dollar General Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $118.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.75, optimistic scenario $153.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dollar General Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $118.21, about 14% lower versus a price of $138.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $82.75, optimistic scenario $153.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Dollar General Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $43.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Dollar General Corporation pay a dividend?
Dollar General Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dollar General Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DG use?
Our models discount Dollar General Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dollar General Corporation that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dollar General Corporation (DG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dollar General Corporation grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dollar General Corporation (DG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dollar General Corporation (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.85 %: that much free cash flow Dollar General Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dollar General Corporation it is $118.21 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $138.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dollar General Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DG trades above its calculated fair value: price $138.00, fair value $118.21, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($138.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($118.21). For Dollar General Corporation the two are $19.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dollar General Corporation worth?
The market values Dollar General Corporation at about $30.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $138.00; our models calculate a fair value of $118.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DG?
Our models span a range for Dollar General Corporation: cautious scenario $82.75, base $118.21, optimistic $153.67 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $138.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DG?
Dollar General Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $118.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2020 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 20.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 3.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of DG?
The PEG ratio of Dollar General Corporation is 1.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dollar General Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 19.7%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DG from its 52-week high?
Dollar General Corporation trades at $138.00, about 10% below its 52-week high of $153.95 and 47% above the low of $94.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $118.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dollar General Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dollar General Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $138.00, calculated fair value $118.21 (−14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DG calculated?
We run Dollar General Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $118.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Dollar General Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $138.00. Our model-based fair value is $118.21, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dollar General Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($82.75 to $153.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Dollar General Corporation (DG) come from?
Earnings per share at Dollar General Corporation grew +5.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.5 %, EBIT margin −6.4 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dollar General Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The market capitalisation of Dollar General Corporation is $30.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dollar General Corporation is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Earnings per share at Dollar General Corporation are $7.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The dividend yield of Dollar General Corporation is 1.7% (payout 30.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The net margin of Dollar General Corporation is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dollar General Corporation is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dollar General Corporation is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
The operating margin of Dollar General Corporation is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Revenue at Dollar General Corporation is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dollar General Corporation (DG)?
Earnings per share at Dollar General Corporation are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dollar General Corporation (DG) carry?
The net debt of Dollar General Corporation is $14.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026