Ford Motor Company (F) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ford Motor Company stock $20.27, price $12.67, upside +60.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.08 – $18.56 · fair‑value band $7.96 – $38.51 · the $12.67 price screens below the $20.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally.
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It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments.
The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions.
It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments.
In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers.
Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers.
Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs.
Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
Stock analysis
Ford Motor Company (F) currently trades at $12.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.27, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.78 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $12.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.03, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.96 (bear) to $38.51 (bull), the price of $12.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ford Motor Company reported revenue of $187B in FY2025 versus $136B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $50.5B Large · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $−1.88 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −18.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 60%, F screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.96Fair Value $20.27Bull$38.51
Price $12.67 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$7.61$15.68$27.1977
Growth DCF$8.22$15.78$25.9176
5Y Revenue Exitn/an/a$1.3769
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$7.61$15.68$27.1977
5Y Revenue Exitn/an/a$1.3769
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.03$12.28$23.3369
10Y Revenue Exitn/a$3.38$6.9364
10Y EBITDA Exit$4.82$12.19$20.4765
Multiples
EV/EBITDAn/an/a$2.8762
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.50$6.03$9.0054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$8.22$15.78$25.9176
Rev-Margin DCFn/an/a$2.8069
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $148,930, on Jun 23, 2026.
BuyJohn L ThorntonDirector2× since Nov 14, 2025: 18,120 shares, avg. $13.69$248,119Jun 23, 2026
BuyWilliam Clay Ford JrExecutive Chair and Chair, Director140,000 shares at $13.82$1.9MFeb 19, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.6% (2020) → 1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.4% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws its main strength from improving profits in core truck and commercial segments, yet its primary weak point remains large ongoing losses in the electric vehicle operations amid margin pressures.
Main risk: Lower-priced electric vehicles from Chinese makers such as BYD could capture market share in the affordable segment and force Ford to cut prices or margins on its planned midsize EV truck and other models.
Bull case: Ford could leverage its new Universal EV platform and in-house software to deliver more efficient affordable vehicles that compete effectively with Chinese offerings while expanding hybrid and energy storage lines.
Bear case: Persistent competition from low-cost Chinese EVs combined with restrictions on Chinese battery technology could delay or derail Ford's affordable EV plans and prolong reliance on higher-margin but slower-growing truck segments.
Ford's core truck and commercial segments drove a modest rise in adjusted profits despite higher commodity costs and supplier issues, leading management to lift the low end of its full-year guidance. At the same time, the electric vehicle business continues to post large losses and 2027 profits are expected to stay roughly in line with 2026. Will the improving traditional operations offset the ongoing electric drag, or will commodity pressures and transition costs limit further gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.95× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ford Motor Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/F
Frequently asked questions
Is Ford Motor Company (F) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.27 versus a price of $12.67, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of F?
Our model-based fair value for Ford Motor Company is $20.27 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.67.
What is the quality score of F?
Ford Motor Company has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ford Motor Company (F)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.27 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.96, optimistic scenario $38.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ford Motor Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.27, about +60% upside versus a price of $12.67 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.96, optimistic scenario $38.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Ford Motor Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $187B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Ford Motor Company pay a dividend?
Ford Motor Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ford Motor Company (F)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ford Motor Company would have to grow free cash flow by +6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of F use?
Our models discount Ford Motor Company at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ford Motor Company that is +6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ford Motor Company (F) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ford Motor Company grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ford Motor Company (F) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ford Motor Company (+6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.68 %: that much free cash flow Ford Motor Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ford Motor Company it is $20.27 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $12.67. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ford Motor Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, F trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.67, fair value $20.27, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of F?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.27). For Ford Motor Company the two are $7.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ford Motor Company worth?
The market values Ford Motor Company at about $50.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $12.67; our models calculate a fair value of $20.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about F?
Our models span a range for Ford Motor Company: cautious scenario $7.96, base $20.27, optimistic $38.51 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $12.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of F?
The PEG ratio of Ford Motor Company is 14.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ford Motor Company (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −18.4%, debt of 2.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is F from its 52-week high?
Ford Motor Company trades at $12.67, about 27% below its 52-week high of $17.25 and 16% above the low of $10.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ford Motor Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ford Motor Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $12.67, calculated fair value $20.27 (+60%), Quality Score 41/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of F calculated?
We run Ford Motor Company through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Ford Motor Company currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $12.67. Our model-based fair value is $20.27, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ford Motor Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($7.96 to $38.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Ford Motor Company (F) come from?
Earnings per share at Ford Motor Company grew +1.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ford Motor Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The market capitalisation of Ford Motor Company is $50.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ford Motor Company is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ford Motor Company (F)?
Earnings per share at Ford Motor Company are $−1.88. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The dividend yield of Ford Motor Company is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The net margin of Ford Motor Company is −4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ford Motor Company is −18.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ford Motor Company (F)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ford Motor Company is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ford Motor Company (F)?
The operating margin of Ford Motor Company is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ford Motor Company (F)?
Revenue at Ford Motor Company is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ford Motor Company (F)?
Earnings per share at Ford Motor Company are growing −14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ford Motor Company (F) carry?
The net debt of Ford Motor Company is $144B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026