Greggs PLC (GRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Greggs PLC stock £19.77, price £23.58, that is 16.2% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.58 – £29.37 · fair‑value band £13.54 – £25.70 · the £23.58 price screens above the £19.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Greggs plc operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company is involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses.
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It sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. The company operates through its own shops and delivery channels. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Greggs PLC (GRG) currently trades at £23.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £19.77, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £24.61 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the £23.58 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £3.83, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £13.54 (bear) to £25.70 (bull), the price of £23.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Greggs PLC reported revenue of £2.2B in FY2025 versus £1.2B in FY2021, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was £122M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) £1.29 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −16%, GRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£13.54Fair Value £19.77Bull£25.70
Price £23.58 · Downside -16.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.5211 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 7.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.0% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Greggs gains from shop network expansion paired with manufacturing automation for efficiency, yet its moderate moat shows only thin evidence amid sector competition and rising costs.
Main risk: Rising cost pressures ahead could offset efficiency gains from manufacturing consolidation by raising operational expenses across the shop network.
Greggs is consolidating its manufacturing with automation and site closures to improve long-term efficiency while continuing to expand its shop network. Stronger recent trading has lifted the profit outlook, yet the company flags rising cost pressures ahead. Will the efficiency gains from these changes support faster growth more than the upfront disruption and workforce impacts hold it back?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greggs PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRG
Frequently asked questions
Is Greggs PLC (GRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £19.77 versus a price of £23.58, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRG?
Our model-based fair value for Greggs PLC is £19.77 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £23.58.
What is the quality score of GRG?
Greggs PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £19.77 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £13.54, optimistic scenario £25.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greggs PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £19.77, about 16% lower versus a price of £23.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £13.54, optimistic scenario £25.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Greggs PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Greggs PLC pay a dividend?
Greggs PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Greggs PLC (GRG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Greggs PLC pays a dividend of £0.69 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 53.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.05 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Greggs PLC (GRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Greggs PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.5 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRG use?
Our models discount Greggs PLC at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Greggs PLC that is +20.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Greggs PLC (GRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Greggs PLC grew +21.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Greggs PLC (GRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Greggs PLC (+20.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.05 %: that much free cash flow Greggs PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greggs PLC it is £19.77 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of £23.58. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Greggs PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, GRG trades above its calculated fair value: price £23.58, fair value £19.77, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£23.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£19.77). For Greggs PLC the two are £3.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greggs PLC worth?
The market values Greggs PLC at about £2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is £23.58; our models calculate a fair value of £19.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRG?
Our models span a range for Greggs PLC: cautious scenario £13.54, base £19.77, optimistic £25.70 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price £23.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRG?
Greggs PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £19.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greggs PLC (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRG from its 52-week high?
Greggs PLC trades at £23.58, about 1% below its 52-week high of £23.88 and 74% above the low of £13.58 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £19.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greggs PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greggs PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price £23.58, calculated fair value £19.77 (−16%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRG calculated?
We run Greggs PLC through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £19.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Greggs PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was £23.58. Our model-based fair value is £19.77, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greggs PLC right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£13.54 to £25.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Greggs PLC (GRG) come from?
Earnings per share at Greggs PLC grew +11.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Greggs PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The market capitalisation of Greggs PLC is £2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greggs PLC is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Earnings per share at Greggs PLC are £1.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The dividend yield of Greggs PLC is 2.9% (payout 53.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The net margin of Greggs PLC is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greggs PLC is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greggs PLC is 15.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greggs PLC (GRG)?
The operating margin of Greggs PLC is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Revenue at Greggs PLC is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greggs PLC (GRG)?
Earnings per share at Greggs PLC are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Greggs PLC (GRG) carry?
The net debt of Greggs PLC is £404M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026