Hammerson PLC (HMSO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hammerson PLC stock £1.67, price £3.59, that is 53.5% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.43 – £3.86 · fair‑value band £1.67 – £2.10 · the £3.59 price screens above the £1.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Hammerson Plc is the largest UK-listed, pure-play owner and manager of prime retail and leisure anchored city destinations across the UK, France and Ireland.
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We own, manage and invest in landmark city destinations integrating retail, leisure and community hubs to meet evolving customer and occupier needs while delivering sustainable long-term growth for our stakeholders.
Our 10 city locations rank in the top 20 of all retail venues across our geographies and in the top 1% where retail spend is concentrated. Our catchment reach of 40 million people attracts 170 million visitors per annum, generating 3 billion Pounds of sales for our brand partners.
Hammerson Plc was incorporated in 1942 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Hammerson PLC (HMSO) currently trades at £3.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.67, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of £3.25 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the £3.59 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at £0.2050, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.67 (bear) to £2.10 (bull), the price of £3.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 1998: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 1998.
Hammerson PLC reported revenue of £212M in FY2025 versus £128M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was £232M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £1.9B Mid · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 6.18 · EPS (TTM) £0.4000 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 67.5% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −54%, HMSO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (£0.1100 to £7.18). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear£1.67Fair Value £1.67Bull£2.10
Price £3.59 · Downside -53.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1891 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 1998: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 1998.
Revenue growth 1 year
+81.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.5% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−756.8% (2020) → 40.7% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+32.7%) comes with 15% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +15.2%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.0% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat amid sector headwinds forms the main weakness for this retail REIT, while the Manchester Arndale stake acquisition supplies its chief strength by lifting scale and earnings guidance.
Main risk: Changing retail habits form the single biggest risk to the business and would hit rental uplift together with occupancy across its retail properties.
Hammerson recently acquired a 50 percent stake in Manchester Arndale, its first major external purchase in over a decade. The deal increases scale in a top UK destination and underpins raised earnings guidance after solid like-for-like rental growth. Will the platform generate enough lasting rental uplift and occupancy gains to outweigh risks from changing retail habits?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−53.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets5.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)67.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)55.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)39.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hammerson PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMSO
Frequently asked questions
Is Hammerson PLC (HMSO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.67 versus a price of £3.59, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMSO?
Our model-based fair value for Hammerson PLC is £1.67 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.59.
What is the quality score of HMSO?
Hammerson PLC has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.67 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.67, optimistic scenario £2.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hammerson PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.67, about 54% lower versus a price of £3.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.67, optimistic scenario £2.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Hammerson PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £310M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Hammerson PLC pay a dividend?
Hammerson PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hammerson PLC (HMSO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hammerson PLC pays a dividend of £0.182 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 45.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.66 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hammerson PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +32.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMSO use?
Our models discount Hammerson PLC at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.78, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hammerson PLC that is +32.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hammerson PLC (HMSO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hammerson PLC grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +32.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hammerson PLC (HMSO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hammerson PLC (+32.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Hammerson PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hammerson PLC it is £1.67 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of £3.59. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hammerson PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, HMSO trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.59, fair value £1.67, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMSO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.67). For Hammerson PLC the two are £1.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hammerson PLC worth?
The market values Hammerson PLC at about £1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is £3.59; our models calculate a fair value of £1.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMSO?
Our models span a range for Hammerson PLC: cautious scenario £1.67, base £1.67, optimistic £2.10 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price £3.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMSO?
Hammerson PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 0.9, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 18.1.
What is the PEG ratio of HMSO?
The PEG ratio of Hammerson PLC is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hammerson PLC (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMSO from its 52-week high?
Hammerson PLC trades at £3.59, about 7% below its 52-week high of £3.86 and 28% above the low of £2.81 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hammerson PLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hammerson PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price £3.59, calculated fair value £1.67 (−54%), Quality Score 61/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMSO calculated?
We run Hammerson PLC through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £1.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hammerson PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was £3.59. Our model-based fair value is £1.67, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hammerson PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Hammerson PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The market capitalisation of Hammerson PLC is £1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hammerson PLC is 6.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Earnings per share at Hammerson PLC are £0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The dividend yield of Hammerson PLC is 5.1% (payout 45.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The net margin of Hammerson PLC is 67.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hammerson PLC is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hammerson PLC is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The operating margin of Hammerson PLC is 55.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Revenue at Hammerson PLC is growing +39.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Earnings per share at Hammerson PLC are growing −34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hammerson PLC (HMSO) carry?
The net debt of Hammerson PLC is £1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026