Hammerson PLC (HMSO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Hammerson PLC £1.28, price £3.44, upside -62.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.43 – £3.86 · fair‑value band £1.28 – £1.60 · the £3.44 price screens above the £1.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hammerson Plc is the largest UK-listed, pure-play owner and manager of prime retail and leisure anchored city destinations across the UK, France and Ireland.
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Hammerson Plc is the largest UK-listed, pure-play owner and manager of prime retail and leisure anchored city destinations across the UK, France and Ireland. We own, manage and invest in landmark city destinations integrating retail, leisure and community hubs to meet evolving customer and occupier needs while delivering sustainable long-term growth for our stakeholders. Our 10 city locations rank in the top 20 of all retail venues across our geographies and in the top 1% where retail spend is concentrated. Our catchment reach of 40 million people attracts 170 million visitors per annum, generating 3 billion Pounds of sales for our brand partners. Hammerson Plc was incorporated in 1942 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Hammerson PLC (HMSO) currently trades at £3.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.28, implying the stock looks roughly 168.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of £3.61 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the £3.44 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at £0.3300, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.28 (bear) to £1.60 (bull), the price of £3.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hammerson PLC reported revenue of £212M in FY2025 versus £128M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was £232M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B GBX · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 9.20 · EPS (TTM) £0.4100 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 110% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −63%, HMSO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.28Fair Value £1.28Bull £1.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1697 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+81.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−756.8% (2020) → 40.7% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.6% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)67.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)55.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth39.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.06× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF31.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.68× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hammerson PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMSO
Frequently asked questions
Is Hammerson PLC (HMSO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.28 versus a price of £3.44, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMSO?
Our model-based fair value for Hammerson PLC is £1.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.44.
What is the quality score of HMSO?
Hammerson PLC has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.28, optimistic scenario £1.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hammerson PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.28, about −63% upside versus a price of £3.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.28, optimistic scenario £1.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Hammerson PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £310M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Hammerson PLC pay a dividend?
Hammerson PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hammerson PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +31.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMSO use?
Our models discount Hammerson PLC at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.79, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hammerson PLC that is +31.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hammerson PLC (HMSO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hammerson PLC grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +31.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hammerson PLC (HMSO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hammerson PLC (+31.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.79 %: that much free cash flow Hammerson PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hammerson PLC it is £1.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of £3.44. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hammerson PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HMSO trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.44, fair value £1.28, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMSO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.28). For Hammerson PLC the two are £2.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hammerson PLC worth?
The market values Hammerson PLC at about 2.2B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is £3.44; our models calculate a fair value of £1.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMSO?
Our models span a range for Hammerson PLC: cautious scenario £1.28, base £1.28, optimistic £1.60 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price £3.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMSO?
Hammerson PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 1.1, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 19.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HMSO?
The PEG ratio of Hammerson PLC is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hammerson PLC (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMSO from its 52-week high?
Hammerson PLC trades at £3.44, about 11% below its 52-week high of £3.86 and 24% above the low of £2.77 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hammerson PLC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hammerson PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price £3.44, calculated fair value £1.28 (−63%), Quality Score 60/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMSO calculated?
We run Hammerson PLC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £1.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hammerson PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was £3.44. Our model-based fair value is £1.28, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hammerson PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Hammerson PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The market capitalisation of Hammerson PLC is 2.2B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hammerson PLC is 9.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Earnings per share at Hammerson PLC are £0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The dividend yield of Hammerson PLC is 5.3% (payout 44.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The net margin of Hammerson PLC is 110% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hammerson PLC is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hammerson PLC is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
The operating margin of Hammerson PLC is 55.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Revenue at Hammerson PLC is growing +39.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hammerson PLC (HMSO)?
Earnings per share at Hammerson PLC are growing −34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hammerson PLC (HMSO) carry?
The net debt of Hammerson PLC is £1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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