Samsara Inc (IOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Samsara Inc stock $9.98, price $41.09, that is 75.7% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $8.70 – $60.96 · fair‑value band $5.46 – $13.99 · the $41.09 price screens above the $9.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Samsara Inc. provides solutions to connect physical operations data to its connected operations platform in the United States and internationally.
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The company's Connected Operations Platform includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from its IoT devices and a growing ecosystem of connected assets and third-party systems, and which has embedded capabilities for AI, workflows and analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security and privacy.
Its applications include video-based safety; and telematics, which provides visibility into real-time vehicle location and diagnostics with GPS tracking, routing and dispatch, fuel management, driver recognition, electric vehicle usage and charge planning, preventative maintenance, and insights to manage fuel and energy costs.
The company also provides site visibility that provides remote visibility into sites to enhance onsite security, safety, and incident response times.
It serves transportation, construction, wholesale and retail trade, field services, logistics, manufacturing, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, food and beverage, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Samsara Inc (IOT) currently trades at $41.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.98, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $9.98 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $41.09 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.13, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.46 (bear) to $13.99 (bull), the price of $41.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Samsara Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $428M in FY2022, a compound +39.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.1M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $23.6B Large · P/E ratio 302.8 · P/S ratio 12.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.1400 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.9% · Operating margin 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −76%, IOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.6700 to $11.29). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$5.46Fair Value $9.98Bull$13.99
Price $41.09 · Downside -75.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1070 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $260.6M and none bought.
SaleDominic PhillipsOfficer13× since Dec 5, 2025: 336,694 shares, avg. $37.53$12.6MNov 2, 2026
SaleJohn BicketOfficer, Director, 10% owner20× since Nov 18, 2025: 4,902,400 shares, avg. $34.13$167.3MOct 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSanjit BiswasCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, Director, 10% owner20× since Nov 18, 2025: 4,862,400 shares, avg. $34.10$165.8MOct 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAdam EltoukhyOfficer16× since Nov 20, 2025: 99,800 shares, avg. $37.46$3.7MOct 26, 2026
SaleBenjamin Louis KirchhoffCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER15× since Dec 10, 2025: 29,762 shares, avg. $35.37$1.1MOct 19, 2026
SaleJonathan ChadwickDirector4× since Dec 26, 2025: 40,000 shares, avg. $36.02$1.4MSep 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMarc L AndreessenDirector2× since Jun 8, 2026: 2,256,487 shares, avg. $33.51$75.6MJun 11, 2026
Plus 27 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.3%
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−81.1% (2021) → −3.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.7% a year for the price and +15.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from its vehicle and operations data feeding no-code AI agents with rapid adoption growth, yet faces weak points in thin evidence and inconsistent profitability with negative net income.
Main risk: Rivals such as Motive and Geotab with lower subscription prices could win customers in price-sensitive fleet segments and force Samsara to cut prices or margins on its telematics and safety platform.
Bull case: Samsara could leverage its proprietary fleet data and hardware moat to integrate AI agents more deeply into customer workflows, turning regulatory and competitive pressure into higher switching costs and expanded recurring revenue.
Bear case: If cheaper rivals capture share and privacy or AI rules raise costs sharply, Samsara’s platform adoption could slow, margins could compress and its ability to expand large fleet deployments could weaken over time.
Samsara’s Agent Studio gives fleet customers a no-code way to build AI agents that tap directly into their vehicle and operations data for tasks like compliance checks and report generation. Adoption has jumped sevenfold since the June beta, with the latest half-million interactions completed in just 16 days. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the data moat drive broader platform adoption and higher retention, or will these tools mainly automate work inside existing subscriptions without lifting revenue per customer?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−75.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Above median
Return on assets−0.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)302.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B16.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)12.75× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow113.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)26· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samsara Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IOT
Frequently asked questions
Is Samsara Inc (IOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.98 versus a price of $41.09, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IOT?
Our model-based fair value for Samsara Inc is $9.98 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.09.
What is the quality score of IOT?
Samsara Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.98 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.46, optimistic scenario $13.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Samsara Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.98, about 76% lower versus a price of $41.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.46, optimistic scenario $13.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Samsara Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Samsara Inc (IOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Samsara Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +44.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +45.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IOT use?
Our models discount Samsara Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Samsara Inc that is +44.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Samsara Inc (IOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Samsara Inc grew +45.3 % a year. The price currently implies +44.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Samsara Inc (IOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Samsara Inc (+44.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.88 %: that much free cash flow Samsara Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Samsara Inc it is $9.98 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $41.09. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Samsara Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, IOT trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.09, fair value $9.98, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.98). For Samsara Inc the two are $31.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Samsara Inc worth?
The market values Samsara Inc at about $23.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $41.09; our models calculate a fair value of $9.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IOT?
Our models span a range for Samsara Inc: cautious scenario $5.46, base $9.98, optimistic $13.99 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $41.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IOT?
Samsara Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 302.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 16.6, P/S 12.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Samsara Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 6.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IOT from its 52-week high?
Samsara Inc trades at $41.09, about 9% below its 52-week high of $45.22 and 69% above the low of $24.25 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Samsara Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Samsara Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $41.09, calculated fair value $9.98 (−76%), Quality Score 58/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IOT calculated?
We run Samsara Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Samsara Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $41.09. Our model-based fair value is $9.98, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Samsara Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.46 to $13.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Samsara Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The market capitalisation of Samsara Inc is $23.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Samsara Inc is 12.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Earnings per share at Samsara Inc are $0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 302.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The net margin of Samsara Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Samsara Inc is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Samsara Inc is −12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Samsara Inc (IOT)?
The operating margin of Samsara Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Samsara Inc (IOT)?
Revenue at Samsara Inc is growing +29.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Samsara Inc (IOT) hold?
Samsara Inc holds more cash than debt, $246M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 3, 2026