Samsara Inc (IOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $21.5B
Samsara Inc
IOT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $4.86 to $5.13 (+5.6%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range $8.70 – $60.96 · fair‑value band $3.72 – $6.54 · the $38.22 price screens above the $5.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Samsara Inc (IOT) currently trades at $38.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.13, implying the stock looks roughly 86.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Samsara Inc generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue grew 28.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $246M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.72 (bear case) to $6.54 (bull case); at $38.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -87%, IOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($11.29) versus Asset-Based ($1.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Samsara Inc. provides solutions to connect physical operations data to its connected operations platform in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Samsara Inc. provides solutions to connect physical operations data to its connected operations platform in the United States and internationally. The company's Connected Operations Platform includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from its IoT devices and a growing ecosystem of connected assets and third-party systems, and which has embedded capabilities for AI, workflows and analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security and privacy. Its applications include video-based safety; and telematics, which provides visibility into real-time vehicle location and diagnostics with GPS tracking, routing and dispatch, fuel management, driver recognition, electric vehicle usage and charge planning, preventative maintenance, and insights to manage fuel and energy costs. The company also provides site visibility that provides remote visibility into sites to enhance onsite security, safety, and incident response times. It serves transportation, construction, wholesale and retail trade, field services, logistics, manufacturing, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, food and beverage, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Samsara Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $428M in FY2022, a compound +39.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.1M in FY2026.
IOT screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Samsara (IOT) Fully Valued After Crossing $2B In ARR?
- Samsara (IOT) Following Its Connected Operations Story With Fair Value In Focus
- Tenable, monday.com, Freshworks, Samsara, and Zeta Global Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Samsara Inc. (IOT) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 367 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Palantir Technologies Inc 1PLTR | €112.86 | €12.03 | -89% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €381.50 | €118.28 | -69% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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