Li Auto Inc (LI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Li Auto Inc stock $7.33, price $11.58, that is 36.7% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +65.0 %/yr in CNY)
Loss over the last twelve months · -4.4% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 1.0%
Revenue last quarter 15% below a year ago.
Fair value $7.33 · Strongly overvalued (−36.7%)
Quality 37/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers(2/11)
Narrow moat25/100
Negative coverage
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Domestic deliveries decline and softening home market🚩Declining domestic deliveries amid softening home market🚩Rivals like BYD, AITO and Xiaomi🚩EU tariffs on Chinese EVs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.69 – $46.65 · fair‑value band $5.24 – $7.73 · the $11.58 price screens above the $7.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.
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The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels.
The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Li Auto Inc (LI) currently trades at $11.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.33, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.49 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the $11.58 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.59, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.24 (bear) to $7.73 (bull), the price of $11.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Li Auto Inc reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $11.7B Large · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6500 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity −6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −8.5% · Revenue (TTM) 105B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −37%, LI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.24Fair Value $7.33Bull$7.73
Price $11.58 · Downside -36.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+169.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−54.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−54.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −1%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Founder leadership supplies partial alignment but the business quality remains limited by low margins and negative cash flow that signal a weak moat.
Main risk: Named Chinese EV makers such as BYD, Huawei-backed AITO and Xiaomi could intensify price competition and faster product cycles, eroding Li Auto's domestic market share and margins in the extended-range and battery-electric SUV segments.
Bull case: Li Auto could leverage its proprietary AI chips and batteries plus successful localization in Europe to gain share in new markets and defend domestic positioning against rivals.
Bear case: If domestic competition intensifies further and European tariffs constrain exports, Li Auto might lose significant market share at home without offsetting growth abroad, pressuring its overall business model.
Li Auto is refreshing a key electric SUV model with its own 5C batteries and Mach chips for a late-October launch while debuting in Europe at the Paris Motor Show. Domestic deliveries declined in September amid a softening home market. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the push into new markets and proprietary technology overcome slower growth at home, or will the challenges there dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−4.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.74× · Pricier than median
PEG4.32× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Auto Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LI
Frequently asked questions
Is Li Auto Inc (LI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.33 versus a price of $11.58, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LI?
Our model-based fair value for Li Auto Inc is $7.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.58.
What is the quality score of LI?
Li Auto Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.24, optimistic scenario $7.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Auto Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.33, about 37% lower versus a price of $11.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.24, optimistic scenario $7.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Li Auto Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 105B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Auto Inc it is $7.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $11.58. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Auto Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, LI trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.58, fair value $7.33, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.33). For Li Auto Inc the two are $4.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Auto Inc worth?
The market values Li Auto Inc at about $11.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $11.58; our models calculate a fair value of $7.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LI?
Our models span a range for Li Auto Inc: cautious scenario $5.24, base $7.33, optimistic $7.73 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $11.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LI?
The PEG ratio of Li Auto Inc is 4.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Auto Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −6.6%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LI from its 52-week high?
Li Auto Inc trades at $11.58, about 43% below its 52-week high of $20.42 and 8% above the low of $10.69 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Auto Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Auto Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $11.58, calculated fair value $7.33 (−37%), Quality Score 37/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LI calculated?
We run Li Auto Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Li Auto Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $11.58. Our model-based fair value is $7.33, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Li Auto Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Li Auto Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc is $11.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Li Auto Inc is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Earnings per share at Li Auto Inc are $−0.6500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The net margin of Li Auto Inc is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Li Auto Inc is −6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Li Auto Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The operating margin of Li Auto Inc is −8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Revenue at Li Auto Inc is growing −15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Li Auto Inc (LI) generate?
The free cash flow of Li Auto Inc is −12.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Li Auto Inc (LI) hold?
Li Auto Inc holds more cash than debt, 39.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026
