Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. stock €30.24, price €27.57, upside +9.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range €7.04 – €27.83 · fair‑value band €15.14 – €39.32 · the €27.57 price screens below the €30.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Lottomatica Group S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the gaming market in Italy. The company operates through Online, Sports Franchise, and Gaming Franchise segments.
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The Online segment provides a range of online games, such as sports betting, virtual betting, horse betting, online casino games, bingo, poker, betting exchange, and skill games through the GoldBet.it, Better.it, Lottomatica.it, Betflag.it, Totosì.it, and Planetwin365.it websites.
The Sports Franchise segment offers various retail offerings, such as sports betting, virtual betting, and horserace betting under the GoldBet, Intralot, Better, and Planetwin365 brands.
The Gaming Franchise segment engages in the management of gaming halls and concession activities for video lottery terminals and amusement with prize machines. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) currently trades at €27.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €30.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €25.43 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the €27.57 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.09, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €15.14 (bear) to €39.32 (bull), the price of €27.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. reported revenue of €2.2B in FY2025 versus €808M in FY2021, a compound +29.1%/yr. Reported net income was €174M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 28.7 · P/S ratio 2.81 · EPS (TTM) €0.9600 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 64.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 10%, LTMC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€15.14Fair Value €30.24Bull€39.32
Price €27.57 · Upside +9.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4445 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+42.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 21%
2025 sits 151% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (7 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited public signals and commoditized operations point to weak durable advantage for this gambling operator, with high leverage and modest margins as the central constraints.
Main risk: Delays or conditions in antitrust, foreign investment or gaming licence transfers for the Cirsa merger could hinder expansion into Spain and complicate operations in Italy and Portugal.
Bull case: Successful completion of the Cirsa merger could deliver scale synergies and stronger digital capabilities that help defend market position against rivals.
Bear case: Prolonged regulatory hurdles or faster share gains by Flutter could limit growth from the merger and intensify pressure on margins in Italy.
Lottomatica has advanced the Cirsa merger with board approval of the common plan and a shareholder vote set for November. The deal would expand its European gaming footprint while introducing board changes and planned capital returns. Will the added scale from Spanish operations strengthen results more than integration and regulatory steps complicate them?
Compare Lottomatica Group S.p.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+9.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)64.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B19.90× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.81× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.5× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lottomatica Group S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LTMC
Frequently asked questions
Is Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €30.24 versus a price of €27.57, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LTMC?
Our model-based fair value for Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is €30.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €27.57.
What is the quality score of LTMC?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €30.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.14, optimistic scenario €39.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lottomatica Group S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €30.24, about +10% upside versus a price of €27.57 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €15.14, optimistic scenario €39.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Lottomatica Group S.p.A. pay a dividend?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. pays a dividend of €0.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was May 18, 2026. The payout ratio is 45.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.42 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lottomatica Group S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +13.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LTMC use?
Our models discount Lottomatica Group S.p.A. at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lottomatica Group S.p.A. that is +13.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. grew +42.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (+13.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.91 %: that much free cash flow Lottomatica Group S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lottomatica Group S.p.A. it is €30.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €27.57. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lottomatica Group S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, LTMC trades below its calculated fair value: price €27.57, fair value €30.24, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LTMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€27.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€30.24). For Lottomatica Group S.p.A. the two are €2.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lottomatica Group S.p.A. worth?
The market values Lottomatica Group S.p.A. at about €6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €27.57; our models calculate a fair value of €30.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LTMC?
Our models span a range for Lottomatica Group S.p.A.: cautious scenario €15.14, base €30.24, optimistic €39.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €27.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LTMC?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €30.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 19.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 64.0%, debt of 6.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LTMC from its 52-week high?
Lottomatica Group S.p.A. trades at €27.57, about 1% below its 52-week high of €27.83 and 46% above the low of €18.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €30.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lottomatica Group S.p.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Light & Wonder, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lottomatica Group S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €27.57, calculated fair value €30.24 (+10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LTMC calculated?
We run Lottomatica Group S.p.A. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €30.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lottomatica Group S.p.A. currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €27.57. Our model-based fair value is €30.24, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lottomatica Group S.p.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€15.14 to €39.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lottomatica Group S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The market capitalisation of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is €6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 2.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Earnings per share at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. are €0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The dividend yield of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 1.6% (payout 45.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The net margin of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 10.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 64.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
The operating margin of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Revenue at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC)?
Earnings per share at Lottomatica Group S.p.A. are growing +40.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lottomatica Group S.p.A. (LTMC) carry?
The net debt of Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026