Marriott International Inc (MAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Marriott International Inc stock $151, price $417, that is 63.8% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $124.63 – $424.87 · fair‑value band $80.46 – $208.52 · the $417.28 price screens above the $151.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally.
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It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts.
The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
Marriott International Inc (MAR) currently trades at $417.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $151.21, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $191.45 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $417.28 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $38.54, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $80.46 (bear) to $208.52 (bull), the price of $417.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Marriott International Inc reported revenue of $26.2B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $112B Large · P/E ratio 41.6 · P/S ratio 15.2 · EPS (TTM) $10.03 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 35.0% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −64%, MAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$80.46Fair Value $151.21Bull$208.52
Price $417.28 · Downside -63.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Per share before 2011divided by the spin-off factor 1.061
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.0% vs 13.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.2% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Marriott's main strength is its growing room pipeline and Bonvoy loyalty base that underpin the asset-light fee model, while its main weak point remains high debt with negative equity that limits financial flexibility.
Main risk: AI booking agents might steer guests toward online travel agencies rather than Marriott's direct channels or loyalty program, potentially raising distribution costs and weakening brand loyalty.
Bull case: Marriott could integrate AI agents into its own systems and loyalty program to capture more direct bookings and enhance personalization, strengthening its asset-light model amid tech upgrades.
Bear case: If AI diverts bookings and alternative accommodations gain further ground, Marriott might face sustained pressure on occupancy, higher distribution costs and slower growth in its core lodging business.
Marriott keeps growing its record room pipeline and Bonvoy loyalty base while actively investing hundreds of millions in AI and overhauling three core technology platforms. These steps support the asset-light fee model but add significant ongoing costs. Will the digital upgrades ultimately lift margins and customer acquisition more than they weigh on returns?
Compare Marriott International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 161 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−63.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets9.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)65.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.6× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)15.22× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow43.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA26.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.99× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marriott International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Marriott International Inc (MAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $151.21 versus a price of $417.28, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MAR?
Our model-based fair value for Marriott International Inc is $151.21 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $417.28.
What is the quality score of MAR?
Marriott International Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $151.21 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $80.46, optimistic scenario $208.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marriott International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $151.21, about 64% lower versus a price of $417.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $80.46, optimistic scenario $208.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Marriott International Inc pay a dividend?
Marriott International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marriott International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +26.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAR use?
Our models discount Marriott International Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marriott International Inc that is +26.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marriott International Inc (MAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marriott International Inc grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies +26.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marriott International Inc (MAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marriott International Inc (+26.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.32 %: that much free cash flow Marriott International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marriott International Inc it is $151.21 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $417.28. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marriott International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, MAR trades above its calculated fair value: price $417.28, fair value $151.21, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($417.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($151.21). For Marriott International Inc the two are $266.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marriott International Inc worth?
The market values Marriott International Inc at about $112B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $417.28; our models calculate a fair value of $151.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAR?
Our models span a range for Marriott International Inc: cautious scenario $80.46, base $151.21, optimistic $208.52 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $417.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAR?
Marriott International Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $151.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 32.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/S 15.2, EV/EBITDA 26.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MAR?
The PEG ratio of Marriott International Inc is 1.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marriott International Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAR from its 52-week high?
Marriott International Inc trades at $417.28, about 2% below its 52-week high of $424.87 and 50% above the low of $278.82 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $151.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marriott International Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, The Indian Hotels Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marriott International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $417.28, calculated fair value $151.21 (−64%), Quality Score 69/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAR calculated?
We run Marriott International Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $151.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Marriott International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $417.28. Our model-based fair value is $151.21, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marriott International Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($208.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($80.46 to $208.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Marriott International Inc (MAR) come from?
Earnings per share at Marriott International Inc grew +14.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin +6.4 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marriott International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The market capitalisation of Marriott International Inc is $112B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marriott International Inc is 15.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Earnings per share at Marriott International Inc are $10.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The dividend yield of Marriott International Inc is 0.7% (payout 27.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The net margin of Marriott International Inc is 35.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marriott International Inc is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marriott International Inc is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
The operating margin of Marriott International Inc is 65.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Revenue at Marriott International Inc is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marriott International Inc (MAR)?
Earnings per share at Marriott International Inc are growing +4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marriott International Inc (MAR) carry?
The net debt of Marriott International Inc is $16.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026