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MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MDU Resources Group Inc stock $14.25, price $18.63, that is 23.5% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

MR MDU Resources Group Inc logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

MDU Resources Group Inc

MDU · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 24% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 10.3% net margin (TTM)
Upbeat coverage
Quality 42/100
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +6.7 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
Moderate moat 45/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $14.25 · Overvalued (−23.5%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/14)
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.48 $8.40 Fair Value $14.25 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.40 – $22.48 · fair‑value band $10.90 – $15.64 · the $18.63 price screens above the $14.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery businesses in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, and Pipeline.

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It generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming through approximately 3,400 miles of transmission and 4,900 miles of distribution lines, as well as 86 transmission and 299 distribution substations.

The company also distributes natural gas in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming through approximately 22,000 miles of distribution and 540 miles transmission systems; and supplies related value-added services.

In addition, it provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection non-regulated energy-related services.

Further, the company offers transportation and storage services. MDU Resources Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Stock analysis

MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) currently trades at $18.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.25, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $12.63 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $18.63 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.00, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $10.90 (bear) to $15.64 (bull), the price of $18.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MDU Resources Group Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025, compounding −15.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.9B Mid · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.9100 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −24%, MDU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.90 Fair Value $14.25 Bull $15.64
Price $18.63 · Downside -23.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6582 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $10.92 $11.55 $12.68 76
Gordon GGM $4.94 $6.98 $9.13 69
DDM Multi-Stage $4.94 $7.01 $9.53 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.16 $11.88 $14.83 66
EPV $0.5000 $2.69 $4.63 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.94 $6.98 $9.13 69
DDM Multi-Stage $4.94 $7.01 $9.53 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.22 $16.29 $20.37 63
P/S Multiple $11.54 $15.39 $19.23 58
P/B Multiple $15.58 $20.77 $25.96 55
EV/EBIT $2.64 $7.82 $12.99 60
EV/EBITDA n/a $3.65 $7.79 62
EV/Revenue n/a $5.05 $10.44 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.77 $7.73 $11.54 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.92 $11.55 $12.68 76
ROIC Compounder $0.5000 $2.69 $4.63 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.84 $12.63 $16.42 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 47
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 24
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 94
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 30
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 18
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 60
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • BuyCharles M KelleyDirector5,000 shares at $20.85$104,250Feb 13, 2026

Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Per share before 2023divided by the spin-off factor 1.457
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.3% vs 3.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

MDU screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Regulatory stability anchors the utility operations, yet negative free cash flow and thin differentiation constrain overall business quality.
Main risk: Regulatory hurdles ahead for the Bakken East pipeline risk constraining long-dated returns from expanded transport capacity.
MDU's pipeline subsidiary secured commitments and board approval to build the 350-mile Bakken East natural gas line from the Bakken region to eastern North Dakota, with phased completion targeted for 2029 and 2030. The project adds meaningful capital intensity to a business already balancing regulated utility operations with infrastructure growth. Will the long-dated returns from expanded transport capacity more than offset the multi-year spending and regulatory hurdles ahead?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.9% · Below median
Return on assets 2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 10.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.91× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 20.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.12× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.36× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)52 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)15 · sector 69

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥21.31 ¥24.00 +13% vs MDU
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.12 €10.07 +10% vs MDU
Uniper SE UN0 €44.00 €45.97 +4% vs MDU
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.54 €30.62 +4% vs MDU
UGI Corporation UGI $37.04 $29.40 −21% vs MDU
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.40 HK$4.93 −33% vs MDU
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹185.79 ₹116.94 −37% vs MDU
Snam S.p.A SRG €6.20 €3.65 −41% vs MDU
NiSource Inc NI $44.15 $19.87 −55% vs MDU
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $173.22 $77.35 −55% vs MDU

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MDU Resources Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDU

Frequently asked questions

Is MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.25 versus a price of $18.63, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDU?
Our model-based fair value for MDU Resources Group Inc is $14.25 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.63.
What is the quality score of MDU?
MDU Resources Group Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.25 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.90, optimistic scenario $15.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MDU Resources Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.25, about 24% lower versus a price of $18.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.90, optimistic scenario $15.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
MDU Resources Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does MDU Resources Group Inc pay a dividend?
MDU Resources Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MDU Resources Group Inc pays a dividend of $0.14 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1986. The payout ratio is 15.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.8% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.8% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MDU Resources Group Inc it is $14.25 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $18.63. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is MDU Resources Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MDU trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.63, fair value $14.25, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.25). For MDU Resources Group Inc the two are $4.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MDU Resources Group Inc worth?
The market values MDU Resources Group Inc at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $18.63; our models calculate a fair value of $14.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDU?
Our models span a range for MDU Resources Group Inc: cautious scenario $10.90, base $14.25, optimistic $15.64 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $18.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDU?
MDU Resources Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 1.4, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MDU?
The PEG ratio of MDU Resources Group Inc is 2.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Balance-sheet figures for MDU Resources Group Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDU from its 52-week high?
MDU Resources Group Inc trades at $18.63, about 17% below its 52-week high of $22.48 and 1% above the low of $18.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MDU Resources Group Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MDU Resources Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $18.63, calculated fair value $14.25 (−24%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDU calculated?
We run MDU Resources Group Inc through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. MDU Resources Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.63. Our model-based fair value is $14.25, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MDU Resources Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) come from?
Earnings per share at MDU Resources Group Inc grew +5.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.9 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +4.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MDU Resources Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The market capitalisation of MDU Resources Group Inc is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MDU Resources Group Inc is 2.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Earnings per share at MDU Resources Group Inc are $0.9100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The dividend yield of MDU Resources Group Inc is 0.8% (payout 15.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The net margin of MDU Resources Group Inc is 10.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MDU Resources Group Inc is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MDU Resources Group Inc is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
The operating margin of MDU Resources Group Inc is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Revenue at MDU Resources Group Inc is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)?
Earnings per share at MDU Resources Group Inc are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) generate?
The free cash flow of MDU Resources Group Inc is −$319M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) carry?
The net debt of MDU Resources Group Inc is $2.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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