Melia Hotels (MEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Melia Hotels stock €15.84, price €10.80, upside +46.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.97 – €12.29 · fair‑value band €9.39 – €21.23 · the €10.80 price screens below the €15.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Meliá Hotels International, S.A. owns, operates, manages, leases, and franchises hotels in Spain, Latin America, the rest of Europe, and Asia. It operates through Hotel Management, Hotel Business, Other Business Linked to Hotel Management, and Real Estate segments.
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The company operates hotels under the Gran Meliá Hotels & Resorts, the Meliá Collection, ME by Meliá, Paradisus by Meliá, Meliá Hotels & Resorts, INNSIDE by Meliá, ZEL, Sol by Meliá, Affiliated by Meliá brands, as well as Circle by Meliá and Club Meliá brands.
It also engages in the operation of vacation club; casino or tour operation activities; and real estate business. In addition, the company offers Meliá Rewards; and Meliá PRO, a platform for professionals.
The company was formerly known as Sol Meliá, S.A. and changed its name to Meliá Hotels International, S.A. in June 2011. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
Stock analysis
Melia Hotels (MEL) currently trades at €10.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.84, implying the stock looks roughly 32% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €20.42 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the €10.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.21, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.39 (bear) to €21.23 (bull), the price of €10.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Melia Hotels reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €827M in FY2021, a compound +25.9%/yr. Reported net income was €170M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) €0.7600 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 47%, MEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€9.39Fair Value €15.84Bull€21.23
Price €10.80 · Upside +46.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5295 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.3% vs 15.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−82% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Meliá's direct investments in premium resort upgrades provide control over guest experiences in key destinations, yet moderate profitability and thin evidence leave durable advantages unclear.
Main risk: Direct ownership of resorts leaves the company exposed to tourism cycles and regional risks that would hit occupancy rates and operating margins.
Meliá just finished repositioning its Paradisus Cancún resort with a 50 million euro investment to center wellness and local Mayan-inspired experiences within the all-inclusive format. The same focus on premium upgrades and new openings shows up across Vietnam and Argentina. Will these moves deliver lasting higher returns or mainly raise exposure to tourism cycles and regional risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+46.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)20.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Melia Hotels Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Melia Hotels (MEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.84 versus a price of €10.80, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MEL?
Our model-based fair value for Melia Hotels is €15.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €10.80.
What is the quality score of MEL?
Melia Hotels has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melia Hotels stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.84, about +47% upside versus a price of €10.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.39, optimistic scenario €21.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Melia Hotels reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Melia Hotels pay a dividend?
Melia Hotels currently shows a dividend yield of 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Melia Hotels (MEL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Melia Hotels pays a dividend of €0.141 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 6, 2026. The payout ratio is 18.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.91 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Melia Hotels (MEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Melia Hotels would have to grow free cash flow by -3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEL use?
Our models discount Melia Hotels at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Melia Hotels that is -3.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Melia Hotels (MEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Melia Hotels grew +31.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Melia Hotels (MEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Melia Hotels (-3.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.21 %: that much free cash flow Melia Hotels produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melia Hotels it is €15.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €10.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Melia Hotels stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MEL trades below its calculated fair value: price €10.80, fair value €15.84, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€10.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.84). For Melia Hotels the two are €5.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melia Hotels worth?
The market values Melia Hotels at about €2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €10.80; our models calculate a fair value of €15.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEL?
Our models span a range for Melia Hotels: cautious scenario €9.39, base €15.84, optimistic €21.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €10.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEL?
Melia Hotels trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €15.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.4. Other multiples: PEG 14.5, P/B 2.8, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MEL?
The PEG ratio of Melia Hotels is 14.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melia Hotels (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 17.1%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEL from its 52-week high?
Melia Hotels trades at €10.80, about 12% below its 52-week high of €12.29 and 60% above the low of €6.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melia Hotels?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melia Hotels stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €10.80, calculated fair value €15.84 (+47%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEL calculated?
We run Melia Hotels through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €15.84 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Melia Hotels currently trades 32% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €10.80. Our model-based fair value is €15.84, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Melia Hotels right now?
Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€9.39 to €21.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Melia Hotels (MEL) come from?
Earnings per share at Melia Hotels grew +10.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Melia Hotels
How large is the market capitalisation of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The market capitalisation of Melia Hotels is €2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Melia Hotels is 1.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Earnings per share at Melia Hotels are €0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The dividend yield of Melia Hotels is 1.3% (payout 18.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The net margin of Melia Hotels is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Melia Hotels is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Melia Hotels is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Melia Hotels (MEL)?
The operating margin of Melia Hotels is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Melia Hotels (MEL)?
Revenue at Melia Hotels is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Melia Hotels (MEL) carry?
The net debt of Melia Hotels is €2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026