Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Marathon Petroleum Corp stock $110, price $393, that is 71.9% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.16 – $484.92 · fair‑value band $76.81 – $172.82 · the $392.68 price screens above the $110.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel.
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The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services.
Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals.
The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand.
The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids.
The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties.
It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) currently trades at $392.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $110.21, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $167.32 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $392.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.52, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $76.81 (bear) to $172.82 (bull), the price of $392.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $133B in FY2025 versus $120B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $114B Large · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $50.47 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 42.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −72%, MPC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$76.81Fair Value $110.21Bull$172.82
Price $392.68 · Downside -71.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($39.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.8M and none bought.
SaleShawn M LyonSVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC2× since Aug 13, 2026: 3,925 shares, avg. $358.56$1.4MAug 31, 2026
SaleErin M BrzezinskiVP and Controller570 shares at $362.79$206,790Aug 27, 2026
SaleMolly R BensonChief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec17,196 shares at $358.57$6.2MAug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael A Henschen IIEx VP, Refining3× since Feb 12, 2026: 17,636 shares, avg. $273.67$4.8MAug 12, 2026
SaleRicky D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer3× since Mar 11, 2026: 5,473 shares, avg. $231.21$1.3MMay 13, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+40.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.6% vs 11.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−18% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The commodity refining business shows thin margins and weak evidence of a durable moat along with elevated debt to equity, even as logistics improvements support utilization.
Main risk: Widespread adoption of electric vehicles and alternative fuels such as hydrogen could reduce demand for gasoline and diesel, hitting refining volumes and margins at its facilities.
Bull case: By scaling its renewable diesel output and using data analytics to boost efficiency, the company could meet rising demand for lower-carbon fuels and offset any decline in conventional product volumes.
Bear case: If electric vehicle uptake accelerates rapidly together with stricter emissions rules, demand for its core refined products could fall sharply and leave refining assets underutilised.
Marathon Petroleum is opening its first new light products terminal in 30 years at Galveston Bay to move more fuel into key markets. The refiner has also posted strong recent utilization and margin capture on the Gulf Coast. Will this logistics step support steadier marketing results or will swings in refining crack spreads still dominate outcomes?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−71.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)42.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.08× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow34.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.99× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)12· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $110.21 versus a price of $392.68, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MPC?
Our model-based fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corp is $110.21 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $392.68.
What is the quality score of MPC?
Marathon Petroleum Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $110.21 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $76.81, optimistic scenario $172.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marathon Petroleum Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $110.21, about 72% lower versus a price of $392.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $76.81, optimistic scenario $172.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Marathon Petroleum Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $154B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Marathon Petroleum Corp pay a dividend?
Marathon Petroleum Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marathon Petroleum Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPC use?
Our models discount Marathon Petroleum Corp at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marathon Petroleum Corp that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marathon Petroleum Corp grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marathon Petroleum Corp (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.17 %: that much free cash flow Marathon Petroleum Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marathon Petroleum Corp it is $110.21 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $392.68. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MPC trades above its calculated fair value: price $392.68, fair value $110.21, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($392.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($110.21). For Marathon Petroleum Corp the two are $282.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marathon Petroleum Corp worth?
The market values Marathon Petroleum Corp at about $114B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $392.68; our models calculate a fair value of $110.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPC?
Our models span a range for Marathon Petroleum Corp: cautious scenario $76.81, base $110.21, optimistic $172.82 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $392.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MPC?
Marathon Petroleum Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $110.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 36.7 (reported for FY2025: 29.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 9.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 6.6, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MPC?
The PEG ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marathon Petroleum Corp (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 42.1%, debt of 1.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPC from its 52-week high?
Marathon Petroleum Corp trades at $392.68, about 19% below its 52-week high of $484.92 and 144% above the low of $160.76 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $110.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marathon Petroleum Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Formosa Petrochemical Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $392.68, calculated fair value $110.21 (−72%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPC calculated?
We run Marathon Petroleum Corp through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $110.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Marathon Petroleum Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $392.68. Our model-based fair value is $110.21, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marathon Petroleum Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($172.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($76.81 to $172.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) come from?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corp grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.2 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marathon Petroleum Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corp is $114B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corp are $50.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 1.0% (payout 10.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 7.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 42.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corp is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Revenue at Marathon Petroleum Corp is growing +53.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corp are growing +348% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) carry?
The net debt of Marathon Petroleum Corp is $30.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026